It's interesting that you just continue to ignore my posts hammering your "no problem" thesis, and just fall back to resorting to straw men. Ah well, I'm happy to continue pointing out your missteps:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Jiggs, I'm not even going to say anything at first. Merely quote the comedy in your OP with oil now at $30 and massively oversupplied two years later. Here goes:
Yeah, see bigot, all of those posts represent the price of oil that the
industry absolutely needs to maintain free cash flow. Not the price where I predicted global Brent would actually be. Try and follow along, or at least try and be honest about what I've written.
Reminds me of an important passage recently:
Remember, peaking in production, by definition, means that you have plenty of oil left. It has nothing to do with running out. … The only people who ever use the phrase ‘running out of oil’ are people who either don’t understand Peak Oil, or people trying to mislead an audience about Peak Oil (Tooth, jj, etc.). Because again, if you can successfully mislead an audience and frame the argument as ‘No more oil’ vs ‘We still have oil’ – you again set yourself up for an easy debate victory. - D. Ray Long
Anyhow, back to your inability to understand industry price requirements:
Oh, look!! This data is from your very own source!
Yeah, see... industry absolutely needs global Brent price about 5x what it is today, and the only reason they (some, anyway) are still pumping today is entirely due to extended lines of credit in a desperate bid to keep drilling ... debt which will never be paid back; lines of credit that have finally dried up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
March 9th 2014:
(we're at 96.5 million barrels/day now and oil is massively oversupplied still such that wells are being capped)
LOL!!! Yeah, couple things:
- Those wells are being capped because companies are going bankrupt (see chart above for the prices industry absolutely needs)
- It's easy to balloon the figure of total world production by simply changing the definition of what constitutes "total liquids."
When you suddenly throw 5M barrels per day of ultra-expensive-to-produce feedstock crude and condensate on the markets with no place to store it and fewer refineries willing to buy it, of course you're going to have the appearance of a "glut."
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Shale expanded so much since this post that it flooded the world (see graph below), and the US even overtook Saudi Arabia as the biggest producer of oil.
No, it never surpassed Saudi. Unless you consider NG and feedstock as "oil." And, of course you do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Now the huge excess of supply has pushed the price is so low that the shale wells are being capped, ready to be brought back online when the price rises again.
Low because of a lack of storage capacity and the increased refusal of many refineries to buy the oil due to how difficult it is to refine. ... And, if they've already started drilling, wells absolutely are not "easy" to start up again once shuttered. This further shows you have no clue what you're talking about.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Well we're at that point. The "desperate hydraulics" are in fact being turned off because of massive oversupply. You cannot fail a prediction worse than this one.
Again, a very short burst of oversupply due to debt, lack of storage facility, and reduced purchasing power. You continue to confuse short-term supply (due to environmentally damaging technological advancement) with long-term supply promise.
I'm sure to a business-minded cultist like you, the tight oil "revolution" is perfectly sustainable, even though half the drillers are at or near insolvency.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
And for the final thread classic, here's your response to me last year when I noted that oil was dropping to $60 and your thesis of a supply shock in 1-2 years (from March 2014) was failing miserably:
I have 3 days to go until it's March 2016. I'll bump the thread when that happens. Oil is at $30 and we're 2 million barrels/day in oversupply even with shale wells being capped and Iran still to come online.
Well, by the time the decade is over, whether I was off by a year or a month, doesn't much matter to anyone but trolls like you. Because it is absolutely coming. The wonders of corporate credit can extend and pretend the problem for a little while, and that's the only reason you're awarding yourself a trophy before you've reached the goal line. Unfortunately for your arrogant argument, at this point - with global supply already declining, and U.S. supply set to plummet - about the only way a supply disaster doesn't happen in the next few years is a massive global/regional war killing off millions. ... But I'm sure, to you, the increasing possibility of that happening has curiously nothing to do with limits to resources.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
US production since this post:
LOL... graph does more for my argument than it does yours. DUCY? Probably not.
Commodities deflation... what does it mean?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Iran has yet to come online (another couple of million barrels/day at least in capacity) which will further flood the market with excess supply.
Please cite an objective source that claims Iran will add 2M barrels per day to global markets. .75M? maybe. ... Still not nearly enough to offset decline from other nations, including U.S. production. Look out below!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Anyway, your complete inability to admit fault even when the data has crushed your stated predictions and those of your experts is just amazing. There's no need to reply to you; the data speaks for itself.
LOL!!!! Ah yes, data like this:
Shale Drillers Halt Bakken Fracking as Saudis Send Gloomy Note
Continental Resources Inc., the shale oil pioneer controlled by billionaire wildcatter Harold Hamm, halted all fracking in the Bakken shale formation in the U.S. Williston Basin after posting its first annual loss since the company’s public debut in 2007. ... Continental is now seeking to raise cash by attracting investments from joint-venture partners in an Oklahoma discovery known as the Stack.
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You ultimate argument?:
"Yay, limitless borrowing power!!! Who cares how many companies go under. Someone else will pick up where they left off!"... Oops, nope.
Last edited by JiggsCasey; 02-27-2016 at 06:24 PM.