Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
Pretty hilarious reading through this thread now that the U.S. is a net exporter of oil
No, it absolutely isn't. You're confusing overall consumption with refined product. We are a net exporter of refined product. We still consume far more than we produce, overall, and import almost 8m per day.
Come on, bro. That's just basic stuff.
Here you are:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Le...s=mcrimus2&f=m
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
and the shale gas industry has gotten so good at extraction of the "difficult" wells and production that there is enough supply to power the U.S. for 500 years.
lol.... citation please.
And, 500 years at what cost?
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
They are finding more oil (and gas) in Texas than expected. Marginal production coming on line seems to be right at about 50/bbl break even (average is lower in the 40’s)
When all costs are considered, the average fracked well in the US needs way more than that, especially when dividend payments are required. I've linked to that fact a few times now. These producers aren't in the business of "breaking even."
Big Fracking Profits at $50 a Barrel? Don’t Bet on It
Claims of low ‘break-even’ prices for shale drilling hardly square with frackers’ bottom lines
https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-fra...-it-1543919401many of the companies curtailed drilling to their choicest acreage, which caused the break-even figures to fall significantly in 2016, and helped create the impression that shale companies could generate overall profits even at lower prices.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
If prices somehow spike because, for example, Iran and Saudi Arabia go to war, Oklahoma and the Dakotas got gigatonnes of more oil that breaks even in the 60s and 70s. We got more than enough oil to last us until we colonize Mars and invent cheap/safe/clean (for example) fusion reactors.
sigh... no.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
The more pressing questions are how much do we want to use and how cleanly can we burn the stuff without roasting ourselves.
There's that too. Which is what depletion is all about. There's plenty there, if you wanna dig deep enough, go bankrupt, and fry the planet faster.
Extra lol @ "how cleanly can we burn the stuff"
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
I mean permian producers have bene happy getting 50 oil all year, given thats what the diffs have made their oil worth. So with pipes coming on now and Q1, and WTI down to $50, its almost a wash. Still net negative but small.
At least you admit it's still a negative. But again, no. ... Producers aren't in it for a "wash."
You realize the blood bath energy hedge funds took last year?
Bad bets on oil, gas spark wave of energy-fund closures
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1PC0EG“There is a massive decline in the number of funds, and no replacements,” said David Mooney, founder of Casement Capital. “There has been a near ‘extinction event’ in commodities hedge funds.”
Trouble In Paradise For U.S. Frackers
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...-Frackers.htmlThe frackers’ problems will be compounded by continued demands that producers pay dividends and return capital. As the various investors quoted by Bethany McLean in Saudi America explained, the fracking business has rarely if ever been cash-flow positive. The consequence could be stagnation or even a decline in U.S. production from end-December 2018 levels by the close of 2019.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
US should end the year at 13.5mm barrels in 2019. Seems hard to get a sustained rally if the US can supply all the world demand growth
And where did you pull that figure from? I'd love to read it. Last industry reading had us at 11.3m in August. Who in the world says we're on track to reach 13.5m by Dec. 31?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Amazing numbers aren't they. The US now produces 30% more oil than Saudi Arabia. Now has bigger economically recoverable reserves than Saudi Arabia at current prices.
So, ignoring what "economically recoverable" means from a "no problem/invisible hand" troll like you, as opposed to what it means to the industry... but, 11.3m is "30% more" than
10.8m? ... that's some curious maths. You must have real trouble at the table counting outs. Is that why you're on here literally every day arguing the virtues of homogeneous cultures and blaming more pluralist societies for all the world's economic problems?
never mind that most of that US total is a very light blend that doesn't fit well with America's Gulf Coast refineries.
But you don't know anything about that, or what that means, as we've seen.
Last edited by JiggsCasey; 02-25-2019 at 03:16 AM.