Of course - What was your name before this latest gem? Mediate? Lupa?

Hardly fair, you had two additional posts for further analysis.

Nope those aren't me, you must have me confused. You're the one who said it was going to be $250 this year, I don't believe I said that myself I'm only thinking $25++ this year.

Also can you talk about something important like our bet. I know you like to keep all of your posts very short and simple and only address one issue at a time to up your post count, but who cares about $250 or what my name is, lets get a bet made here, I'm trying to discuss terms and you're changing the subject. Feel free to PM ME if you want, then you won't have to puss out in the thread in front of everyone.

This is true. Luckily it's OTB or Yows would've taken me to the cleaners.

In that case I'll give you 10:1 - my 10 sheets of toilet paper against your dollar.
Seriously the cost to escrow real physcian silver is going to be a lot more than the $500 you have to put towards this bet. Try to think a few steps ahead so I dont have to explain what should be common sense

Mediate just come clean, I have big money riding on this.

I'd like to put my toilet paper up against your dollars as well.

I will put 1,000 oz of silver up against your 3,000 oz of silver... what is the cost to escrow real "physcian" silver? PM me if you want to discuss details of bet. If you want to pm me your phone # I will definitely call you and see if we can hammer out some terms.

He's been making intentional spelling errors for a while. "Lupa" was my fave. The cost to escrow that much silver is absurd. If you just put it in a fedex and mail it... You're looking at hundreds of dollars of frictional cost. In addition there are tangible costs to turning the silver into money we use in society.

Also, you want him to lay 3:1 now?

Maybe there is some way we can work out a bet where if I lose I will pay you out in US dollars and if I win you pay me out in silver... the problem is, the further out into the future the bet ends, the more likely it is that you won't be able to afford any silver any more... I pretty much guarantee you I will be able to come up with pretty much infy USDs two years out... a wheelbarrow full of 100s might not be enough for a loaf of bread..., and I pretty much guarantee you there will be no silver to be had two years out...

Why don't we bet in zimbabwe dollars or euros or yen, you seem to be very very bullish on the Us dollar. I am very very bearish on the US dollar... maybe we can make a bet wrt to US dollars...

You lend me 10,000$ @ 12% for 10 years fixed. If you think the dollar is going to the moon, this is an amazing bet for you. Current Tbill yields are like 1%. I will leave 10k++ worth of collateral in physical assets with a third party. I'll then use your 10k to buy more physical assets. Anyone who thinks we are going into deflation and inflation is pretty much an impossibility should be all over locking in a very high rate of interest in a highly collateralized loan.

Ten years from now I will sell five ounces of silver for 50,000$ and pay back the entire loan. You will take that 10,000 and go buy three loaves of bread while you still can.

Plus side of this bet : you are taking little to no risk as long as the US dollar stays strong over the next 5+ years. You don't have to store any silver away or handle any silver yourself, I will arrange to have everything done with third parties, etc. And you have a guaranteed 12% return on your investment, that seems like a pretty good bet in these harsh times

He offered me 3:1 when he offered the bet, of course I want 3:1 why not? I know you won't believe me but I have made a lot of +EV bets in my day because most people aren't great at math. I'm not very smart, I'm predicting something is going to double in the next 12 months from 13$ to 25$ or something, something that has traded in a range of like 4-20$ for the past ... 30++ years... so betting on a high that hasn't been seen in quite a long time? I think I do deserve some kind of odds... I already have a lot of great bets going. It's better to just make a bunch of smaller size bets and not break the bank on anything unless I am extremely confident I have a winner.

All of this fedex frictional cost mumbo jumbo is just hilarious... i am glad to cover all of these made up magical frictional costs... sure it might cost me $50 or $100 to ship some silver around but if someone is willing to hand me 10,000-30000+++++ pretty much free of charge, I'm glad to pay a few extra hundred dollars so that I can collect my winnings aka free monay in silver instead of dollars... it's really not an issue... please pm me if you want to bet, I will be happy to call you up and discuss terms.

So we had 3 more bank failures this weekend as most of you probably know,


Pinnacle Bank of Oregon, Beaverton, OR
Corn Belt Bank and Trust Company, Pittsfield, IL
Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast, Cape Coral, FL
Sherman County Bank, Loup City, NE
County Bank, Merced, CA
Alliance Bank, Culver City, CA
First Bank Financial Services, McDonough, GA
Ocala National Bank, Ocala, FL
Suburban Federal Savings Bank, Crofton, MD
Magnet Bank, Salt Lake City, UT
1st Centennial Bank, Redlands, CA
Bank of Clark County, Vancouver, WA
National Bank of Commerce, Berkeley, IL

I believe we're up to 13 banks gone for the year total so far. To kick off this very special thread, I am going to offer up 2 oz of silver for whoever guesses closest the number of banks in the USA to fail during the year of 2009. Second place will be 1 oz of silver. If you live outside the US, you will have to pick a friend in the US for me to ship your silver to if you win this contest. Only bank closings in the USA count; so far I believe there are 13 this year but don't take my word for it. I will send this out to whoever wins, even if it's some shmuck like thremp etc... so I am counting on all of the real silver bugs out there to make an educated guess. The first post you make with your guess will be binding... do not make an extra post in this thread just to guess a #, do it in another post in this thread that you were planning to make anyway.

thanks for your comments. I find it hard to own foreign equities based on my dealers account and am happy just to own some cash in foreign currencies to lower my volatility.

about commodities, I'm happy to try to track something that people will always need and will reflect the cost of living. I'm not a big fan of the stock market, looking at how bad the management has been of the largest financial institutions. Regarding being 40% down from their highs, I don't want to invest my money into them the current price seems irrelevant right now given the market has proved it is very bad at pricing the worth of the component companies, so it could end out that 40% is the bottom or it could be 70% is the bottom. I'm happy with some exposure, but I'm more keen in preserving what I have and trying to make money through non-investing means.

hope that makes some sense

john

Classic Mediate / Lupa. I think we have a winner here.

I see that your 1 yr silver target is $25 but your 10 yr target is $10,000.

You dont need to call me. Think about your ideas. Think about the costs of escrow. Make me a proposal. I tried to make you a simple proposal that would be relatively cheap and easy but you want to go the hard way involving physical assets.

Junk yields or the bonds of the most levered companies are at 18%. Now moving to you, the credit risk of lending some nutjob on the internet is 10x worse than this. I dont think I could lend money to you outside of escrow for less than 100% / year and thats even if I had all your documents and written agreements.

I think I'm interested. But because I'm worried about your creditworthiness I'd like some changes. What if I buy $10k worth of silver and give it to a trusted third party. You put in $31000 ($10k + 12% for 10 years) at the third party too. After 10 years you get the silver and I get the cash. You can choose if the cash will be held in a 10 year CD or a portfolio of ETF's. I can choose the ETF's. You have to pay for the storage of the gold.

If you can't come up with the cash I'm willing to do it with $1k too.

Why wouldnt he just buy $31,000 worth of silver in the first place?

Might be the least thought out post I've ever read here.

Lol, yeah. You're right. I didn't think this through. The only thing I thought off when he mentioned paying 12% a year for 10 years was the fact that he'll just default the first week.

I would like to hedge £50k vs currency fluctuations.

I see there is FXB which tracks the GBP.

If I buy a sept call option, would that be correct? What would the cost be approximately?

anyone know a UK broker who I could do this through?

I appreciate I am too late, but assuming perfect market, it's worth it i think.

Meditate,

Magical? Fedex uses planes. Not flying carpets. The costs would be called "tangible", unless you've invented a teleporter. In which case I would immediately short/option/lever my balls out fading DHL/UPS/FedEx.

So who wins in a fight: John Spartan or Mad Max?

I think environment and choice of weapons play a key role. The more militaristic the setting, the more it favors Spartan. The more scrappy the environment, the more I give the edge to MM.

Who gets the knitting cryogenic training and who gets the litany of martial and weapons training?

How do people feel about the Euro? Are they planning any more interest rate cuts?

Has anyone used digital gold currency, such as Liberty Reserve, Pecunix, etc? If so, what are your thoughts and experiences with them?

I'd like to diversify by opening and funding some off shore gold accounts for safety and, more than likely imo, profits.

Also, does anyone know of a reliable gold currency exchanger? I got ripped off by AEGOLD last week when I tried to fund my first account, and I'd like to find a dependable and honest exchanger to fund the accounts.

Thanks!

http://economicrot.blogspot.com/2009...-collapse.html

Anyone have comments on this video? I tend to agree with most of what Celente says-- he is a very bright guy whether you agree or not. Check out the accuracy of his past predictions for those of you who aren't familiar

I see why you like him, he is asked a specific question about unemployment then changes the parameters and answers his own question, not the one asked of him. That said I agree that commercial real estate is going to see much more pain, however comparing the great Depression unemployment levels to current levels is pretty stupid. He should at least mention that the Great Depression numbers would be over 40% using comparative data.

He is right about Obama but then again who didn't know that? Except the uneducated and the young voters who drank the Koolaid.

In summation he is pretty much like all the current headline seekers, he says he made certain predictions first and people who like what he says don't go back and check his accuracy.

Oops, he predicts past events Damn well anyway

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...rticleId=12252

This article also seems very relevant item for this thread.

RE: Jimbo the Troll-

You're right I mean I can't say this guy can predict tomorrow's lottery numbers. He has definitely not been right 100% of the time, he is only human. HOWEVER I think it's hilarious that in an article specifically designed to attack and trash Gerald Celente (which is hilarious in and of itself, clearly he has been doing something right to be getting these kinds of personal attack articles written about him ) it admits he predicted the housing bubble in 2005. Okay, sure some magazines predicted it in 2004- that doesn't make his prediction any more or less valid... less than 1% of the population believes we were in a bubble in 2005. I even got attacked viciously for suggesting we were in a bubble in 2007... predicting the housing bubble in 2005 is a pretty solid prediction imho...
Probably 95%+++ of the board would say they "knew" we were in a bubble in 2005, because hindsight is 20/20, but in reality, probably less than 5% of the posters here believed we were in a RE bubble in 2005.

If you listened to Gerald and got out of dollars in 2005, you did pretty well. Discrediting his prediction "because it had been happening for a while" is ridiculous. Sure more people were bearish on the dollar than RE in 2005...

This argument is akin this IMO:
Lets say I predict silver is going to $35 in two years... and it does. You will say that my prediction is stupid because it was so obvious... I mean look silver went from $4 to $15... it was OBVIOUS that it was going to $35 in two years ANY IDIOT could have predicted it. I mean sure 99% of people will not act and buy the silver, but after it has already gone up, then it was obvious that it was going to go up...