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Originally Posted by BooLoo
peak-demand is still years, i'd say atleast 2 or 3 decades, away.
sure EV's will be cheaper and better, i guess within the next decade, but it's gonna take another 20-30 years to replace most of gasoline powered transportation. my guess would be another ~20years of 1-2% demand growth and maybe another 10 years of steady demand after that before any singnificant downturn, maybe around 2050.
what this means for oil prices is up to price action and resulting capex. the longer we stay below or around 50$ the higher the chance we see above 100$ again and vice versa.
They don't have to completely replace gas cars to have a huge impact on the demand for gas. What happens when half of vehicles on the road are evs?
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Originally Posted by DoOrDoNot
Because it has a dozen times?
There was a prolonged spike from 75-85, and then from 05-15. At pretty much every other point in history it's been below $50/barrel.
There're tons of examples where resources/stocks/currencies have fluctuated wildly and then settled in at significantly lower/higher prices.
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I thought this too but then I thought about it again and it's not the case. Even for light transportation vehicles EV will not take over the whole market. EV won't probably ever be as powerful as gas for one, so in certain sections of that market gas will hold on. Also, the trucking industry will likely remain gas, so will pickup trucks and other transport. Airliners will never be electric. Heavy machinery will remain gas/diesel. Marine will always be gas/diesel. Housing will remain natural gas, Tesla shingles might take a small portion of the market in democrat states.
Only the car market will see a loss to electric, and it won't be as much as you think, and it's not close either. 5-10 years minimum before they start to make significant gains.
If it takes 5-10 years for EVs to cross 50% of passenger vehicles sales, that probably means within 20 they'll be half the cars on the road and passenger vehicles account for almost half of oil consumption. And do you really think that if it becomes cost effective for passenger vehicles that NONE of the industrial vehicles will go electric? It's hard to imagine oil consumption dropping any less than 20% within 20 years purely based on the economics of passenger vehicles.
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Not only that, but you need electricity to even charge battery powered cars. How do you make electricity? By burning oil.
And what percentage of electricity is generated by burning of oil? half of a percent? The reason is because it's not cost effective.