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Originally Posted by trade2win
No clue how you can call the 2020 or 2019 options 50% chance of being 10 baggers if this is all you have. Netflix is growing subscribers 50% Y/Y
I agree that if this was a true statement, it would not be a short. But it's not at all a true statement. Netflix are growing subscriber number 5%/quarter, not 50%/year.
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their international numbers are phenomenal and its basically all that wall st. gives a **** about.
Agreed, hence the short thesis. Disney needs to take away very few customers on launch to stop Netflix's growth dead - at which point the stock crashes. North America is approaching saturation, which means it goes into serious decline for Netflix when Disney arrives. What do you think that will do to the stock? If Netflix can't hold existing subs, the model where they'll raise prices a lot eventually to finally become profitable dies in a grease fire.
Disney has a large international presence and so does Fox, which Disney has acquired. Fox for example has a large amount of local Indian content, which Netflix will struggle to compete with.
Have a look at the stations and brands and studios that Fox (now Disney) owns.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...st_Century_Fox
A huge number of top of the line US and International assets which produce large amounts of highly rated original content.
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Disney streaming will not take any customers from Netflix
This is self evidently an absurd statement.
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they're launching domestically and aren't even looking to expand to international markets for years to come.
[citation needed] for the bolded.
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The service they are releasing is looking like a joke
Do you think this is a reasonable position? On content alone they have Netflix crushed right out of the gate. If the article is true - big if - not everyone is a horny toad. More likely they'll have tiers of service and parental controls in the package - more adult if you want it.
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No one is going to cancel their Netflix subscription over this joke of a service even if they end up landing the Fox library people want original content and Netflix already has huge head start with what subs will watch and continue to pay for.
Do you think this is a reasonable position? People want tons of stuff to watch, not "original content", whatever that means - everything you haven't already watched is original content. Disney will have plenty of that, they churn out tons of shows regularly. You do realize they have a whole channel, right, churning out original content? Multiple top in their class series/franchises, churning out original content? Now add Fox on top of that and a blockbuster movie studio, plus whatever they want to buy with their deep pockets. And someone you think Netflix will have them beat on "original content"? Are you high? Here is a list of what they own - it crushes Netflix on the quality and rate of original content production:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...Media_Networks
Netflix has to do (rather ****ty second grade) original content because they can't afford proper content, and have to pad their ****ty second and third tier bought offerings with stuff they do in house. You really think their original content stacks up against what Disney + Fox has to offer?
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Its highly unlikely Disney will be stealing subs away from Netflix more likely is that at some point Disney service will be worth subscribing too and you'll have people paying for both.
Again it's a numbers game. Some will pay for both, most people won't/don't. Work out the number of people that Disney needs to take with their cheaper subscription and superior content, work out Netflix's growth rate (it's not even close to what you think it is), and do the math. US subscriber decline after Disney's launch is a certainty.
If you don't realize that, look at Netflix churn and satisfaction rates. The former is very high, and latter is only moderately high. If the 22% of Netflix consumers who report low satisfaction with the service have somewhere else to go, with far better content and far more original content rather than the second and third tier garbage Netflix makes, what happens to Netflix's numbers? Do you think these 22% with low satisfaction keep both services?