Can't take the bet. If I made the bet I would 100% never enter a movie theater again... And escrow would be a pain. I also avoid silly prop bets like this as a rule. I don't want to restrict my choices in silly ways for comically small amounts of money... And I don't want to bet large amounts of money on anything that isn't something in the neighborhood of a sure thing.

Ya, Ya, it's up $24.45 aorn!

My point was, I don't think 50% is accurate.

I dont know you. I dont know your age, lifestyle, health.

I dont think I have set foot in a movie theatre in the last 2 years AND i agree with your previous points but I feel there's more likely a 50% chance of me visiting a cinema in the next 12 months rather than x years (where x = the number of years/months i have left on this planet) where my % is much lower especially if i was in a relationship with some1 who liked films or have kids.

I'm married and she HATES movie theaters. Does that impact your line?

Yes, hence my post. It was up to $250 yesterday when I posted. You gonna get raped if you hold this in 2019, possibly sooner.

Nice score, don't be afraid to take your profit some time this year and buy yourself a Taylor Swift lookalike girlfriend.

More raped or less raped than shorting at 185? It is at the top of its channel and may likely retreat back to the middle or even bottom of that channel. But the uptrend channel is one of the best looking ones out there. If I were in I would probably lighten up or sell some calls or something but I'm not.

I'm not long or short but find this conversation hilarious.

Call me when the year is up. That's the time frame. And substantially more
I'm sorry but this is gibberish.
You'd kill all your upside by selling calls and enjoy just the downside, but you wouldn't short because it's "in a "best-looking" channel"? Hardly a rational activity.
Me too. I personally prefer to consult the alignment of the stars before making my trades, but if you want to look for "nice looking up channels", hey, who am I judge?

Nice double here.

Um, NFLX dropped to $83 not long after making that call, and the options paid an absolute fortune. Thank you for quoting. Someone actually bet against me on that one, lol.

Either of you guys want to bet? You seem to have conviction that NFLX isn't a short and is going higher. So take my money.

When they go through the channel top it is a signal that you should take some profit. I figure this will be your big chance to beat Brian if can time a short term put buy just right. I doubt it goes much higher until consolidation or minor pullback and likely pulls back a little short term. This is what happens (usually) when a channel top is violated. This is most likely an overshoot but the trend is strong and should be bought at reasonable pullbacks like that one to 185 back in November

It's hilarious to me how desperate you are to have the last word, ok buddy you were right. Congrats on all your success in your forum predictions.

Ps- it didn't drop to $75 so that prediction was wrong on all counts

Dude, you need to have an IQ of about 60 to understand the entire depths of technical analysis. I know how channels work.

Fantastic. So you agree it should be sold. Thank you.
Buying this is crazy It's basically a long market bet on a high beta that's now absurdly overvalued and has major deep pocket competition coming online in 2019. Might they get a bump or two while the monopoly continues? Sure. They might also run out of steam. You're about even over the next couple of earnings with substantial downside risk and a long term large correction due at some point. That's never a buy.

I insulted you a couple of years ago and you've been spurned girlfriend who can't let go, following me everywhere. I feel bad for you. People have even had to call you out for it until you stopped.

You do understand that predictions like that are made to generate discussion, right? If I have a no brainer or free money trade I mark it as such and people can follow and you can hold me to it. Apart from that I'm speculating. Hell, I even throw out crazy ideas to generate discussion from time to time.

I've been pretty spot on on most things. The only thing that's ever majorly stumped me is the strength of the Trump bull, which has taken everything higher rapidly. I knew Trump would do a lot for business and the economy (unlke most), but I didn't expect $7.5 trillion to be added in a year.

Most of the inflation in no-profit, no-prospects except for revenue growth, absurd P/E stocks have been high betas in a ripping market. Hold them at your peril - they deflate first when things go bad. And the valuations are getting truly absurd now. NFLX is well over half of Disney market with a fraction of the IP, no path to profits, and an absurd P/S, against a profit generating machine. Who by the way is going to start competing with them in a big way starting next year.

This is a smart time to get out. Could you miss out on 20%? Sure.

I thought you've been short since $180-$200? So I assume you are sticking with that/adding?

Ps- Again you followed me over here when I bumped this thread and brought up points that had nothing to do with you. I think someone is just as obsessed at responding on a low quality content business poker forum lol. No wonder you make so much money.

I don't short, I trade short term options. I recommended a year long NFLX short however at those numbers. Here is even better.
I didn't you follow you here or reply to you. Netflix just had earnings and I replied to Howard, who I know. You're on ignore. It's always one way, you replying to me in an snarky bitchy way or throwing out barbs. I never reply to you since I rarely read what you write. You're so unselfaware (like most borderline personality disorders) that you don't even realize that what you're doing is weird and obsessive. I mean, people have called you out on it.
I find this forum to be high quality content. Lots of good thinkers and ideas. not perfect but better than anywhere else. Why the **** are you here if you think this is "low quality content"?

I'm on ignore and yet you keep responding, hehe hehe. Making me blush all your highly valued and expensive time spent on a peon like me.

I kind of disagree about a Netflix short. I totally agree about the numbers being stupid high, but if that's your reason for being short there are WAY more overvalued names with way bigger downsides than Netflix IMO. Tesla for starters.

EDIT: Like I was short NFLX before they had any clarity on the bandwidth issue and hadn't really done any content yet. At that point it looked like they were about as likely to get crushed by price increases from content creators and data costs as they were to conquer the world. Yeah they are comically overvalued and priced as though nothing bad will ever happen again... but that's like every growth stock lol.

Which stock would you guys rather own until January 1, 2020, NFLX or DIS? DIS has been a chronic underperfomer over the past three years and even recently since they announced pulling their content from NFLX/starting their own streaming service. I feel like you do want to stick with trend, DIS is the one that will have to spend billions to build out their service. Even with their great content catalog, DIS issues in their other businesses has had me long since get out of my holdings and go to neutral.

I'm surprised they keep adding people in the US--like who the heck isn't on netflix already getting on it now? Yes, the price assumes growth it can't reach and it completely ignores things like "hey what if internet companies throttled it in favor of their own service as would happen if net neutrality isn't a thing." This company and stock just aren't for me and I don't get it but whatever.

Future growth won't be about subscribers. It will be about rate increases. Something they've already proven they can do when the value of the content rises.

Don't be too shocked if in 2019-2020 Netflix starts having tiers of service just like old cable packages. They can definitely start using blockbuster big budget movies and a large and rapidly growing TV library to justify it. Netflix will probably be getting 50-75 bucks per month from my household in 2025.

EDIT: And it's still grossly overvalued lol. I think the price is so high that you can buy the bull case lock stock and barrel and still want to take your profits here.

I've got my finger on the sell button, tbh, but I'm hoping that Apple, which I also own, buys Netflix. It seems like they'd need to be assured that Netflix's entire team stays on, tho.

You think Apple is going to shell out $150 billion for something they don't need and which has a tiny fraction of their total users? Doesn't make much sense. If they were going to do something crazy like this, they'd be way better off buying Disney for $200 billion or a few of the lesser studios + a streamer for $50 billion or so - they'd get vast amounts of highly valuable content instead of the mixed trashbag that NFLX is holding, the world's best talent, and a company already generating very strong revenue and profits at a reasonable P/E.

Not to mention, they could simply announce their own upcoming streaming service and gut the **** out of NFLX, making it lose 50% in no time, then pick up the dregs.

It seems a long shot that anyone buys NFLX imo. Betting on it is dumb imo. It's <10% which means 5% of upside at best, and you have to weigh it against the likelier path of Apple simply doing their own streaming services, for which they're already set up with Apple TV, vast Apple content delivery networks, hundreds of millions of users, and deals in place with content producers.

It's just that I've seen a few of the financial news talking heads bring it up. Frankly, I have no idea if it's a good idea or not but I'd get a premium and then Apple would own a company run by a magician. I'm in for the ride for a while although, as I said, I'm ready to sell.

They've been talking it up since Netflix was $30. That's what they do. The odds of a $150 billion acquisition that adds little value are pretty low, which means it adds little to your upside.

Talking heads were sayiing the same about Tesla gettting acquired by Apple. Logic check: why would Apple pay for Tesla, hemorrhaging money, with 70K cars/year production ability at the time, when they get an established global carmaker with a P/E of 9, 5 million cars/year capacity, $150 billion in deployed capital and a vast supply and distribution network for the same price? Despite this unassailable logic and zero chance of an acquisition, morons and analysts still talked it up. It's what they do.

Does anyone here think an Apple acquisition of Netflix is > 10% to happen?

Examples of talking heads being morons about acquisitions from 2015/2016:


Google or Apple likely to buy Twitter, former Yahoo CEO Ross Levinsohn says

3 Reasons Why Somebody Will Buy Twitter in 2017

Twitter is about 15% of the price of NFLX.

Analyst says Apple could buy Disney

Apple could buy Tesla:
Apple could buy Tesla, Adobe or GoPro:

GoPro stock surges on talk Apple may buy the whole company

I could repeat this 100x. A very tiny fraction of this speculation comes true (0 for Apple so far). The larger the company, the less the deal makes the sense, this tiny number becomes even smaller.

Your upside from a potential buyout is < 5% adjusted for probability, and you shouldn't take it into account in your investing decisions on NFLX.