I ripped you two years ago and you've been like a spurned stalker girlfriend ever since. It's hilarious and classic personality disorder. Your entire motive for making posts like the above is because you got quite hurt by it, are butthurt by the fact that lots of people listen to me, so your personality disorder mind must tard up threads following me around and trying to diminish me, to make yourself feel better and lessen the cognitive dissonance of the above facts (that most people find my contributions valuable).

Most amusing of all is that your reasons for doing what you do are unknown to you and uncontrollable by you. Seriously, read what you wrote above a few times and understand the motivation behind saying specifically what you did.
On a longer time frame, sure.

You and mrbaseball are advocating holding at $270 (the current price). I am very very strongly advocating selling. We'll see what happens. Make a post here when you'd sell. I would sell right now if I had NFLX like Howard and walk away with his big profit. I like Howard so I'm giving him very very good advice.

Ok buddy, how's that AMZN short going at $1000? I'm sure you aren't actually short that one either. Nice conviction there...

Your own posts do the work for me, like most mouth breathers and forum trolls you just can't keep your mouth shut because you are addicted to it. I'm on ignore as you say and am a BPD, stalker, tilt monkey and yet you just can't say no. Make better predictions next time that aren't completely terrible.

Meanwhile as we're talking NFLX pushing $270 when TS said it would NEVER cross $150... LA LA LA LA, LA LA LA LA.

Look at this from another way since you guys like technicals. Look at the history of the NFLX price.



Do you think a rip of the magnitude on an insane P/E is

a) usually sustainable
b) usually gives a lot back

Considering that you only have a few quarters before major new competition arrives, that that competition can gut NFLX by taking a mere 2 million subscribers/quarter, and that NFLX is priced far above normal value in a world with no competition whatsoever and best possible growth (see: ahnuld's analysis and double his estimate to make it even more fanciful), do you think it's a good idea to keep holding this long term as you and baseball are advocating to Howard?

3 posts in a row in 3 minutes of rage posting. Ended with LA LA LA LA LA LA. I hit the mark hard.

I ignored you for everyone's sake and then you stalked me for weeks with zero content passive aggression until people called you out for how bizarre and disrutpive it was. I'll return to ignoring you for everyone's sake.

Yeah because traditional P/Es matter so much in this market! No wonder you make so much money!

I look forward to your future predictions and market calls. Always worth a lot to me personally .

What if I told you I could short something at $180-$200 and then it would be worth $271 (sorry $272 now) without ever having skin in the game and then claiming I'm not wrong on that call due to a stock's valuation? Is that something you guys would be interested in?

This latest rip is crazy. Just bought some NFLX Feb 16 $250 puts at $2.80 average. Excellent RR here.

Never a bad idea to hedge after a run like this, I'm in some 245/235 put spreads as well as my longer term call spreads. Targets that gap from earnings just in case.

Got 2 emails this weekend plus an alert on the main Netflix page announcing next months rate increase to $10.99 a month (HD + 2 screens package). Since I thought it was already about 12 buck a month this is a welcome surprise

This rate increase was announced well over a month ago and has not done anything negative to the stock but I guess future earning reports will be needed to prove that. I seriously doubt this increase will cause many to jump ship. The real question for Netflix is how often they will be able to make these small seemingly insignificant (to customers) rate increases without them being a deal breaker. As more and more people cut the cable it will be more the center of their entertainment package and should be able to raise pricing accordingly.

fwiw VIAB in its prime did about 30% EBITDA margins as does DIS today. Both are very scalable businesses with little incremental cost (near 100% incremental margins on new subs for cable channels) yet neither will hit 40% EBITDA margins.

My point is netflix will pay for content which will keep a cap on its margins long term. Could they theoretically become the only player in the world with scale and somehow break all the hisotrical rules? Possible, but then you're looking at government breakup.

At this point very hard to do a top down analysis without grasping at straws and still come out as a buyer.

also I think you're likely to see the true content creators band together and push back at some point. LGF already got together with STRZA and it wouldnt be surprising to see DISCA VIAB AMC consolidate further.

Chris Albrect at Starz was the first to pull his content from netflix and now disney will as well to launch their own platform in 2019 so there goes the monopoly agrument (ironically it was mainly the same disney content Albrect pulled).

I don't think anyone has ever made a monopoly argument? And I am not arguing that Netflix is worth this price. But the future will have room for several of these over the top of cable services. Especially when more and more people just cut the cord. Amazon prime also recently announced a price increase.

Everybody is gonna have to pay for content. Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, Disney etc. not to mention the actual networks themselves. But these services are the future. Netflix as the dominant player in the space probably has the best negotiating position.

Like I said I have no clue about what the stock should be priced at but I certainly wouldn't short it until it has shown that it is turning over. Stocks like this and Amazon have left a wake of broken shorts trying to run the numbers showing that they are massively overpriced only to be stampeded by ever higher stock prices.

it was in response to max when he asked it they could get higher margins than the 25% I initially wrote about given a massive sub base. So I was pointing out they arent on their way to a monopoly, therefore you can assume margins ever go much higher than 30%

the data NFLX has on their user base viewing habits would be fascinating to dig into. I wonder how much of their average viewership is original content vs licensed content.

Also they seem to waay overspend for comedy specials

Disney is a big deal. It's going to destroy their growth. The Netflix CEO's claim on the recent conference call that "Disney will do great" but that "they won't affect us more than HULU" is high comedy. Those are two impossible statements to reconcile.

What are massive beats for Netflix on growth rates are tiny - 2 million/quarter in the US. There's actually not much room to grow in the US. Disney will sign that up in its first week, and 10x that in its first year, easily. When Netflix ceases to grow and they need to pay more for content, what happens to their absurd stock price?
No, because Disney can hugely undercut them and have superior content.

I mean, Netflix are losing money right now while having ultra craptacular content that would do poorly on say, syndication, which is one of the reasons they can buy it fairly cheaply. Their offering really, really stinks, and stinks while they're losing tons of money on content. Their original content is mostly offer formulaic ripoffs of original ideas, good enough to keep the cable cutting plebs happy, not good enough against a serious competitor. The talent of the industry just doesn't work for Netflix.

There's nothing I'd buy other than Netflix right now for streaming. However, if Disney offered streaming, I'd jump ship in a heartbeat. I suspect many people feel the same way. If they offered it for $7.99/month unlimited, I'd never think about Netflix again. There are too many superstar titles (as well as new hits churned out all the time, and a very large breadth of quality material in their existing catalog), that Netflix can't be more than the poor cousin.

baseball, since you seem to like them and are on record as saying a short at $200 sucks, and still won't back a short at $270, I'll offer you a $100 1:1 friendly bet that Netflix is below $100 within two years from today.

I disagree with almost every point you make. Netflix is so entrenched with people right now (and getting better and more content by the day) it will be extremely difficult to dislodge. And like I have stated several times already it isn't a case of either or. The future will be people with multiple streaming bundles which will replace traditional cable and broadcast television. They don't have to choose between Disney and Netflix or Amazon and Hulu. They will have them all or at least a couple of them.

And I don't bet with ******s on the internet. I have no stake in NFLX stock and am on record saying it could be easily up or down 100 points from Jan 1. Damn near up 100 already And it could still easily be down 100 from that point too and especially if the entire market craters. You made a bad call on it. Live with it as we all make bad calls from time to time. Don't be the boy who cried wolf when and if it finally does break down. You have zero credibility on its value.

We're talking about dislodging 2 million/quarter in the US for Netflix growth to evaporate. Out of 55 million. You think this is "extremely difficult". I think you're clueless.
This might be true for 10 or 20%, but it's not true for most people. Most people are poor. Most people dislike redundancy and waste.
That seems rather -EV, by definition, unless you consider yourself a sub-******.
I didn't make a bad call on it. I said it's a year long short. I know you're a weak-tight fish who's terrified of anything moving against him, but surely even you can understand what a time frame is?
Again, this is a tremendous long term short, as stated explicitly on the Disney thesis. A bit of short term movement is irrelevant. It's you who have zero credibility:

- No position
- Little reasoning provided, and the little you did provide, laughable - what I'd get on Yahoo! stock forums
- Too cowardly to bet (probably because you know I'm right)

I mean, read and understand, if you can, ahnuld's analysis. What, precisely, is wrong with it?

Read my analysis. Do you believe that Disney won't capture at least the growth rate of Netflix, which is tiny, if they launch a streaming service (which they just spent $50 billion buying Fox to pad out with vastly superior content to Netflix, in addition to their already vastly superior catalog?)

You like Netflix. You like stocks that run up and are terrified of betting again them. I get it. That's suitable for Yahoo stock forums, but here you need to provide a little more analysis to be taken seriously, or claim victory.

How are you managing this trade? Already down $1 (-35%)if we followed you in here in <2 sessions.

Simple difference of opinion. You think having a position go 40% against you in 2 months is capturing alpha and a huge edge. I don't

In the words of one of the investing legends: "All Netflix has to do is increase ASP by 50% (to $15) and the P/E ratio would fall to low teens"

My math says high teens but still. Back in 2015 when I first properly looked at nflx I concluded that they would never be able to outrun content costs but I'm less certain of that conclusion today.

They amortize content in 4-5 years so im assuming you mean some measure of income that includes spent on new content (EBIT?)

most media companies expense content so they use the word operating earnigns and it basiaclly means ebitda. then they have D&A for the office and furniture and its tiny. Hence most media companies get a high ebitda multiple, low capex.