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Originally Posted by mrbaseball
I disagree with almost every point you make. Netflix is so entrenched with people right now (and getting better and more content by the day) it will be extremely difficult to dislodge.
We're talking about dislodging 2 million/quarter in the US for Netflix growth to evaporate. Out of 55 million. You think this is "extremely difficult". I think you're clueless.
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And like I have stated several times already it isn't a case of either or. The future will be people with multiple streaming bundles which will replace traditional cable and broadcast television. They don't have to choose between Disney and Netflix or Amazon and Hulu. They will have them all or at least a couple of them.
This might be true for 10 or 20%, but it's not true for most people. Most people are poor. Most people dislike redundancy and waste.
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And I don't bet with ******s on the internet.
That seems rather -EV, by definition, unless you consider yourself a sub-******.
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I have no stake in NFLX stock and am on record saying it could be easily up or down 100 points from Jan 1. Damn near up 100 already And it could still easily be down 100 from that point too and especially if the entire market craters. You made a bad call on it.
I didn't make a bad call on it. I said it's a year long short. I know you're a weak-tight fish who's terrified of anything moving against him, but surely even you can understand what a time frame is?
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Live with it as we all make bad calls from time to time. Don't be the boy who cried wolf when and if it finally does break down. You have zero credibility on its value.
Again, this is a tremendous long term short, as stated explicitly on the Disney thesis. A bit of short term movement is irrelevant. It's you who have zero credibility:
- No position
- Little reasoning provided, and the little you did provide, laughable - what I'd get on Yahoo! stock forums
- Too cowardly to bet (probably because you know I'm right)
I mean, read and understand, if you can, ahnuld's analysis. What, precisely, is wrong with it?
Read my analysis. Do you believe that Disney won't capture at least the growth rate of Netflix, which is tiny, if they launch a streaming service (which they just spent $50 billion buying Fox to pad out with vastly superior content to Netflix, in addition to their already vastly superior catalog?)
You like Netflix. You like stocks that run up and are terrified of betting again them. I get it. That's suitable for Yahoo stock forums, but here you need to provide a little more analysis to be taken seriously, or claim victory.