The stock seems washed out. I think the sell off was over done. Im buying here. Im setting a stop loss at 295 but I hope to hold until the end of the quarter.

Why do you think it's "washed out"? Is there anything in the charts, price action, or valuation that leads you to think this is done dropping from here short term?

Or is it just, "hey 20% is a nice discount and hopefully it will recover like everything else in the market."

120 p/e seems to be a strong support on the 3 yr p/e chart. Also the decline in volume over the last 4 days.

I came in here for a 1/2 position incase it does drop lower i can average down.

so far so good, nice timing.

I took some profits on that run up. Now Im buying those shares back at this lower price

If it can gain so momentum and break the 200 day netflix could be in for a run

Yikes for Netflix..back to the 100s in 2020:
Heavy investment, a policy of undercutting Netflix, and now a Disney/ESPN/Hulu bundle that's still cheaper than Netflix...Netflix is gonna bleed subscribers like crazy with their ultra-crap content and this bundle being the competition.

Bundle looks very solid for addressing the Disney-only-appeals-to-families angle. I followed this trade in at 320, never traded such wide spreads before, got filled instantly sending in a bid below the midpoint. Still have 2/3 of the position to build out, bidding 10 and less for the 2021 200s now. The overall popular narrative has moved from Netflix-untouchable to Disney-has-potential. If the market starts viewing things as a re-sliced pie, Disney results should create an effect like subs announcements direct from Nflx?

interesting how disney and netflix were both down though on the day disney release results

Well, hugely underpricing very premium content for a multi-year price war with an entrenched competitor is hardly bullish for Disney. They print large amounts of cash with their content and now it will be available for below cost to anyone. And it's a disaster for Netflix of course, who don't have deep pockets or an independent profit stream and are now constrained from raising price for years.

If the market is rational they'd both be down on the Disney pricing package news. Which is what happened. I'm more surprised that the market acted rationally than that Disney is down

https://www.ft.com/content/4f7f4326-...9-296ca66511c9

Apple donking off big here as well now, report says budget is up to 6b. I don't think this structurally changes anything, just makes all the current issues worse: quality talent has an even higher bid under it (mid 9 figure budget for the unproven 'The Morning Show', 15m per episode for other series), another power name to siphon off subs (apple customer cost can likely start out almost free), more pressure on Netflix pricing (people can't leave Netflix argument gets weaker with every competitor). Launch time seems to be trying to frontrun Disney. Not sure how much of this is desperation for revenue with Iphone going into possible terminal decline.

I'm loaded into Jan 2021 200s from the low 300s. I wanted to wait for Q3 earnings for a potential pop to fill out the position but this is looking tougher as it needs a 3 way parlay of the market, earnings, and now Apple cooperating.

Yeah it was and still is (50% higher) a no brainer trade.

Just saw that Disney+ is planning to release its episodic shows one week at a time rather than all at once. This is a ridiculously stupid idea. The whole key to streaming video is that the viewer is in control. It means people will wait for content to accumulate, then sign up for a month, binge everything they want, unsubscribe and then come back for a month next year and repeat the cycle. This is how I deal with HBO because they just don't have enough content to make staying subscribed worth it and I wanna watch what I wanna watch when I wanna watch it.

No idea what this means for Disney/Netflix stocks but Netflix will have the superior model for viewer preference and control. Disney likely thinks this model of weekly releases will keep people subscribed longer and I would argue the exact opposite.

I disagree

I agree...and they'll pay for that in the time being

Also, I'd imagine that this is what they don't want.

GoT would have never became as big a phenom as it was if not for the weekly release model HBO uses - there are advantages to not being in the binge model esp if you have killer IP. Also HBO costs $15+ and is largely mature content for adults. The key to streaming video is content. Content rules over everything else.

Dis+ is gonna run less than $10, is pretty much a requirement for parents with kids, and if you do the bundle you get Hulu, Dis+, ESPN+. I'd wager a large % of people will end up doing the bundle since a ton of the adult IP Disney owns from Fox will lead to exclusive content/series on Hulu which already has a lot of good content.

GoT was a steaming pile of … but it was a marketing success. But recreating that will be difficult if not impossible. HBO would have me as a lifetime subscriber if it had enough content and dropped in binge mode but it doesn't. So I sub for a month once a year. I have no problem paying them 15 bucks a year and watching everything they have that I want to see but not enough there to pay 15 bucks a month.

This is just a step backwards. People have gotten the taste for watching what they want all at once and will grow bored quickly if forced to wait a week at a time. Even with the recent better network shows like Fargo or Better call Saul I just let them accumulate on my DvR and then binge them when the season is over. I think this decision will bite Disney in the ass and they will never be able to recreate GoT type of fervor. Much of streaming popularity is that you don't have to wait between episodes.

A strong engaging story that can catch peoples imagination is what counts. Look at it from both ends to strip away everything but the underlying relationship: pure trash content released once a week or every hour (doesn't change how the content makes people feel) <> pure quality content released once a week or every hour (doesn't change how the content makes people feel)

Disney is pricing low enough that almost all cost conscious US subs have little incentive to bounce/steal/churn/pw share. For half the cost of NFLX you get 4k streaming to 4 simultaneous devices and 8 registered accounts. Anyone that wants to jump in/out has to appease the whole household.

Finally having a breakdown from this $290 level, still has the gap from earnings around $330 as well. Interesting with what's been happening with ROKU, DIS this week... Content wars are heading to a new phase and the common loser seems to be earnings across the board into 2020. Names like CMCSA, T, & AAPL showing much better relative strength.

Netflix puts are my biggest position across all accounts. Really yoloing on this one and it's looking juicy right now. I'm really surprised by the Roku action today. It's just one analyst dropping their price target to -60%. No clue how reputable the analyst is. But, yeah, content wars seem to be taking out everyone right now.

On a personal level, having 15 different streaming services is bad. Looks like subpar content across the board rather than everyone releasing high level stuff. I'd like to see some consolidation, but that is a couple years down the line

We're about to find out how much pricing power NFLX truly has and more importantly how much churn there is going to be during the launch of all these services, one thing I will say is sentiment in NFLX is getting pretty poor but you can't deny the price action.

I'm not sure DIS is going to break down yet, but it's one of my targets if the market starts to show weakness. I like the opportunity in that there is near universal bullish sentiment and this assumption DIS+ means the stock goes higher on its launch. Just seems like we're going to have a classic sell the news event, they are going to have to spend billions on new content while they are just starting to digest the FOXA acquisition (which has been terrible so far btw, already had a couple write downs as a result). As I've said a couple times, the comps in the film division and parks are going to be extremely tough in 2020, the cable division is still shrinking as a percentage of revenue but rights fees still generate a plurality of their profits. They've pulled forward a lot of their catalog while they are about to launch a supposedly game changing service.

Interesting take on Disney. I think if you're right, which I didn't realize about the Fox writedowns, you could make a lot of money. It's completely opposite of how the majority of people feel about the situation. I do think that Disney+ run-up was a bit much, especially considering the reported price point and the necessary infrastructure. Something I hadn't considered is how a recession could affect park attendance, and my current outlook is that we will have a massive market drawback within the next 9 months.

So yeah, hadn't put much thought into it, but I like where your head is in reference to Disney

Here's the timeline on DIS I'm thinking of coordi provided it can hold that $126 support and gap which is pretty close already.

I expect a run up in October-November just in anticipation, you also have Frozen 2 launching around Thanksgiving which I'm guessing will keep them even more in the news given how poor the rest of the box office has been this year. Then comes December, I actually expect SW9 to underperform. SW believe it or not isnt as strong overseas compared to something like Marvel and SW8/Solo both did some damage to the brand domestically (merchandise sales) plus there is some anecdotal evidence in the weakness comapared to expectations so far with Galaxy's Edge (WDW just opened so we'll see how it does).

Even if SW9 performs in line and the first batch of Dis+ numbers blow away expectations there should still be a "what's next?" feeling among analysts and retail alike after a year that had Endgame, Aladdin, Toy Story 4, Lion King, Frozen 2 & SW9. So maybe the best time to get in will be sometime in early December given all the risks I posed in the previous post.

lol..Netflix is the mother of all shorts (recommended puts +90% already) and we're talking about shorting Disney here? What a joke.

"What's Next" will be Disney's streaming growth as the next big thing. Markets love growth stories, remember?

Disney is just a dumb short especially as compared to Netflix. Not that I think the streaming wars will have winners for a long time but they will have hype. If Disney starts stealing Netflix subs in meaningful quantities where do you think the streaming bets go as Netflix gets sold off from its absurd valuation?

So am I reading this correctly you think it's just as good of a short now as it was around $330-$360? Especially into next report with how much it's declined since the last one? I don't agree with that, the valuation has always been insane but you are still losing your bet with ahnuld and its not going to $100 anytime soon either so I'm not putting much stock in your "recommendations."

Narrative is shifting nicely, everything occurring as forecast:

1) Nflx is untouchable. Money doesn't matter to anyone (junk bond buyers, subscribers in a recession, poor people around the world)

2) Uh Oh, competition is coming. Current list is: Disney, Apple, ATT Warner HBO, Comcast Peacock, Amazon, Quibit. They have all the talent, IP, and unlimited cash (1billion bidding wars for old sitcoms).

-> We are here

3) New entrants are slicing up the market (apple free with idevice, amazon with prime, peacock with comcast, etc). Nflx now the most expensive and losing content fast. Earning reports show consecutive subs declines and the stock begins to collapse

4) Nflx cycle of junk bonds to trash content at a loss is no longer sustainable. Someone buys them up


Media narrative is coming along, just a few quarters behind.


FT: https://ig.ft.com/netflix-future/
Variety: Interview with Reed where he admits its game over
Everywhere: Hype about competitors
Consumers: Tilted at having to buy 5 different services, something will have to give