NFLX isn't going under $100 rapidly no matter how much TS pretends like he has puts/LEAPS. Can we at least let this play out beyond day 1? Super nice move for DIS breaking out of this LT resistance but it's not like NFLX is falling apart either. Still hanging out in this pretty tight range ahead of earnings next week.

2020 is rapidly now? And there's no pretending. I bought puts at open but have no leaps. It's the most obvious short in the world now that Disney has shown their hand (and they're holding a Royal Flush).
Ladies and gentlemen, the dumb money. Netflix will be below $100 in 2020.

I'd bet on it but we both know what a waste of time dealing with you on stuff like this is... Also it's your own words...

I think a small fraction will swap out one for the other but as I've tried to explain to you, the service will just be an addition to a bundle as opposed to a replacement so in general totally disagree with this point.

Hah? I have had one bet on this site, non-escrowed, that I paid out. This is just you being a coward trying to show shade, as usual. Sad.

It's a waste of time because of what $200 puts pays (so you'd have to give me odds), not because of "dealing with me on stuff like this", whatever that means.
Right. And what is that small fraction? How big does the fraction have to be to send Netflix US subscribers into decline? Answer the question with an actual number and you'll see why your take is ******ed.

42% of people watch no original content on Netflix. Switching rates are already quite high to other services. I don't think the statistics back up anything you believe. Even if 80% end up taking both and 2/3 of new users take Netflix, Netflix will still be in subscriber decline and still have lost the ability to raise prices for years with impunity - which was the entire bull case for profitability.

It's a waste of time because dealing with you is like dealing with cancer, I'd rather enjoy my time and yeah I'd rather just sell long term LEAPS than go into a bet with ya. Agree to disagree on everything you said, the company still has a lot of brand loyalty and nice move off the lows already as well. We will see who's right but it's not today or in the weeks to come...

Then why did you BRING UP a bet??
Who gives a crap who's right, or "seeing who's right"? I'm here to be as informed and prodded as possible so I can make good decisions. The point of this forum is to discuss. I've learned from bulls in this thread and they've definitely learned from me.

I ask you actual numbers of how much subscriber switching is needed to put the US in terminal decline, to probe your assumptions, zilch. Who's the cancer? The guy who wants to discuss or the guy who comes in mentioning bets and "we'll see who's right!"

Your entire schtick is "I like Netflix, most subscribers are sticky, many will have both". We agree so far. So it comes down the numbers.

I need a tiny number of switchers to put the US in terminal decline and make the growth narrative turn bad. 2020 is when International comes online so the same deal there.

The other huge advantage that Disney has is that Netflix has to pay for all its content while Disney has it as a basically free offshoot of their already highly profitable manifest core businesses. So you have one side already not profitable with a near monopoly while producing second rate content, and the other side profitably producing copious amounts of first rate content while being able to churn out streaming at almost zero cost with deep pockets and existing strong profitability. Who wins that fight?

Seriously, think it through.

Disney content portfolio is peaking this year (imo) and now they have to spend billions on their own in addition to the billions they (arguably) over paid for the FOX assets. I have thought it through plenty which is why I don't predict dumb things like NFLX is going to $100 next year but to each their own.

Agreed completely. I'm no bull on Disney, a streaming price war is bad for fundamentals short and medium term. I think the 10% jump today is silly We had this discussion before though. How well Disney will do with this fundamentally is completely unrelated to what effect it will have on Netflix. Price and supply wars usually have terrible effects on both parties.
OK, fair enough. You've been right once when I wanted to long term short at $200.

TS even you'd agree with me, DIS is late to the party. Will it be easy to convert existing customers into a $6.99/m subscription? I think for families it's an easy sell but how many adults of those families are going to turn off NFLX at the same time? How many want to watch that library over and over outside of their kids when a lot of the original content will still originate from their cable channels and movie theaters?

Your problems with NFLX being bloated on original content is fair, who says Disney won't have the same problem? People assume their content is amazing going forward but they are heavily reliant on existing IP. How many more Infinity Wars, Toy Story's, Lion Kings, Star Wars do they have that can match the expectations and eventual amazing results those brands will produce this year?

A lot of questions still which is why I can't agree on your NFLX call, when they execute on their vision and the data supports it after the initial launch I would be more than happy to change my mind.

Something people aren't talking about is the potential for Disney to cannibalize itself, why does someone that has a cable bundle with ABC/ESPN want to stick with it when they go to Disney+ for $6.99/m and visa versa (why if I'm paying all the money for a bundle do I want to add another $6.99/m for a lot of already existing content especially if I go to the movies/parks on top it?). A lot of questions still need to be answered...

ASAP17, are you taking junior to nflxland where you guys can watch walrus's fall to their death?

NFLX has a sliver of premium content and overpays for the remaining ota quality crap. The mouse has stockpiled all the cheese it needs for the next 30 years. They can live action every cartoon, turn out series after series. Sandlot anyone? You have no appreciation for IP if you simply disregard this.

In the grand scheme, nflx is dis's fluffer.

This doesn't have to be Disney's golden ticket to signal an end to Netflix as a monopoly.

What's your point here? The parks have been doing great even as they've been raising prices but investors care a lot more about the streaming service and the cable bundle (where they make their most net income). Parks are more correlated to a strong economy as opposed to how well the company is doing on its own.

SW8 and Solo were both poorly recieved by the fanbase and guess what happened (despite doing alright at the global box office combined even if it was below expectations)? Merchandise sales dipped pretty substantially. How soon people forget the various eras Disney has had and that current golden age has gone on longer than anyone could've expected... They just spent billions more on adding an entire SW Land to Disneyland/World, I wonder after the initial demand wares off how many are going to be excited about going especially if episode 9 continues that feeling of over saturation?

Fans and analysts alike that assume these brands can continue to perform at outstanding levels are due for an awakening. They can pump out as many sequel trilogies, Marvel phases as they want but they better be good or it negatively affects their ecosystem. It explains why they purchased FOX, diluting the family friendly brand a bit to hopefully appeal to an older demographic and spread out their bets. Again that comes with a lot of execution risk... What will really set them apart is their ability to come up with more Frozens, original IP that can spawn its own universe. You can keep drilling from existing wells but eventually they all run dry (even the oldest/most reliable) and you have to move on.

Disney bundling a discounted Dis+, ESPN+, Hulu together is gonna be pretty sweet for cordcutters...you basically get everything imaginable with that -- kid ****, major blockbuster IP, originals, all the regular network tv/cable shows that are on hulu, plus live sports.

Correct it will be great for consumers/families looking to avoid a cable bundle but again that's a huge source of Disney's own profitability so potential cannibalization we can't ignore.

This draw back against Netflix off of Disney's news seems a bit excessive. there's probably some call plays in the earnings for Netflix. Or selling puts maybe

The smart money knows there's at best - if everything goes perfectly and the market stays up - two more potential pops on monopoly earnings before Disney fear starts to bite and then Disney reality bites.

It's a pretty obvious 2020 short/close longs here even for Netflix bulls.

From a technical perspective this is a big move for DIS clearly but not so here. Was in a really tight consolidation into this announcement, earnings being next week should provide some more clarity about how they view losing their remaining Disney titles and the impact their and even Apple's offering will have.

yes my first thought as well as netflix needs to halt any more price increases. would be hard to justify given they are losing 3rd party content over the next couple years

Everything is a commodity eventually. This is another race to the bottom.

Right. Especially since Netflix originals, despite their incredibly heavy promotion (title screen autoplay ads constantly, prominent placing in lists), are not wanted by a large portion of their user base.

$12.99 vs $6.99 (with a vastly better library no less by any metric you choose) is huge. Most people here are well-to-do and have no idea what it's like being poor. 78% of US workers live paycheck to paycheck. The bottom 20% has negative net worth/no savings and typically have no money the last 1-3 days before payday.

When you're maxed out each week, $12.99 vs $6.99 is a big difference. Forget about both for >10% of NFLX users just on cost. Without even counting people like me who can afford both but would dump Netflix in a heartbeat if a great alternative existed.

This is why ASAP17 refuses to be drawn on actual numbers needed to put NFLX in terminal decline in the US. Once you put hard numbers to how incredibly small the (switching + new clients missed) number needs to be to put the NFLX growth story in reverse, your spidey-feels I-love-Netflix technicals-yo investing thesis goes out the window.

I am just curious why everyone assumes the interface/user experience will be as good as promised. Obviously the amount of content they can provide makes them a more serious competitor then amazon and Hulu were/are but xfinity hbo go and others have failed to create a comparable platform which siphons users from netflix despite quality content.

The content that is leaving Netflix independently of Disney starting their own service is troubling but not getting adressed as much. This is surprising since punisher avengers and Star Wars have to be some of the most appealing content on the platform but this was know for a while as none of the marvel series were getting renewed despite great ratings.

The interface of Netflix on every platform from smart TVs to iPads to computer is really superior in ease of use for users compared to any other streaming service. It might seem unimportant since this crowd is probably more technologically literate then the population but is actually a huge determining factor for a lot of people and why a lot stay with cable/dish despite being inferior products to like YouTube tv roku etc

Do you have any data to support that first statement or are u just assuming yr opinion is fact? Netflix originals don't even have to be originals...they can also just take failed network/cable shows and turn them into massive hits.

Dis+ will be for people who want kid friendly content and some of Disney's core kid friendly IP - namely Marvel + Star Wars. It is in no way a replacement for Netflix as a product. Now combine Hulu, Dis+, an expanded ESPN+ into 1 service and then yr talking.

Do you like hardcore action movies? period or historical dramas? horror movies? Crime? Thrillers? Sci-fi? Tarantino, Fincher, Scorsese, Peele, Spike Lee, etc etc movies? Anything that's not rated G, PG, or PG-13?
Dis+ ain't the streaming network for you then.

Netflix will still have a better interface, better tech, better selection and diversity of content, better marketing for all user types.

The stock price is obv its own thing...but Dis+ alone has a ways to go to be a true rival as a product offering to Netflix.

I don't think this deserved given that everything I say is backed up by strong facts. Even more so since the data in question has been posted in this very thread from two different sources
The top data is getting a bit older now than when I posted it and I haven't bothered to look for new data, but the bottom data seemingly confirms the DO NOT WANT attitude of their subscriber base toward ultra crap Netflix original content. Remember we need 2% switching to put US subs in permanent decline. We have 42% who have no real interest in any originals content.
This is their plan:
Their stated plan is to aggressively grow subscribers as fast as possible. You think they won't bundle a set a offerings at a great price to attract away Netflix subscribers? Especially considering that 42% of Netflix users think Originals are so worthless and ****ty they don't watch them even with Netflix's heavy promotions?
I'm not seeing the "better tech" or "better interface". I could whip up a Netflix equivalent UI in a week of programming. There's nothing complex here. Similarly for "better tech". Netflix uses AWS. And better diversity of content and better marketing than Disney with all its holdings? Are you kidding?

Sure but I think all of the above are made irrelevant by their bundled other holdings and their large breadth of top shelf content and talent that they have and their deep pockets.