Welp, I got out. In for $88 out for ~$378, just too much risk for someone my age.

I basically just asked you guys to quit arguing publicly and get the thread back on track...but ok then

Its really ****ing annoying for everyone else given it always derails any discussion that might be going on in a thread. Esp since you do it constantly.

Gratz on bringing home the bacon

The problem is people can't stand ToothSayer and react in an immature manner. ToothSayer, whatever your opinion of him is, is irrelevant. There is a common response among many posters who simply want to directly address him and not the subject of the thread. They attack the poster, ignore the topic, and almost always jump right in immediately after ToothSayer posts. They think he's an insufferable troll and become obsessed with everything he says. Every post becomes a referendum on all his posts.

ToothSayer extends it bc he's obsessive himself. He regurgitates his own history ad nauseam bc he gets straw manned a lot. Not always, but pretty often. And he refuses to let anything slide because I'm guessing he has OCD or something. Regardless, his posts are long winded and he weaves in insults with explanations loaded with content and citation.

The immature posters are content free, and that's his complaint. And he has a point, considering these same posters say he's always wrong, full of ****, and an insufferable troll. The proper response is to put him on ignore and yet they can't seem to do the adult thing. They do the opposite, initiating derails of thread after thread...

I'm going to follow you around to different threads and do this (as ASAP and invictus do to me without moderation - selectively quoting your bad calls or flat out lying about them in off topic way) until you get the point?
lmao why would anyone listen to your analysis? Your HOS analysis was TERRIBLE (lmao you recommended at $20 and now it's $4) and you kept doubling down on what you thought was almost a sure thing. You don't even respond to people who ask questions about HOS any more. I know you're a fraud and a poser. It's important for people to know that when they read your analysis.

Bought some Disney at 111. Their streaming service allegedly coming next year and they are closing deal with fox. The streaming service is the important thing. I realize betting against netflix is absolutely insane but I want to see what happens.

solid post. TS's posting personality is unique and can trigger many, but as soon as people realize everyone on this forum is just a screen name and to take everything with a grain of salt then we can avoid these derails. Yes, you may hate a poster's tone or style or think they are full of ****, but you will never be able to prove it and as long as there is good content and ideas mixed in with the rants most people won't even care if you could. I'd imagine if we could scrape the entire history of 2+2 and everyone claims/predictions the fail rate would be insanely high for everyone just the same as anywhere else. Just put people on ignore if they trigger you or drive you nuts. Or start smoking pot or something.

a company that has shown their ability to completely miss the boat decides to amend for their many mistakes by finally throwing their hat in the ring. No thanks that management team needs to be gutted and replaced by some people with a lot more foresight.

The similarities between NFLX and TSLA are striking. I don't just mean the optimistic valuation and huge debt either.
Both companies are in rather traditional and capital intensive industries but a lot of people pretend that they are somehow immune to the usual dynamics in these industries thanks to space-age technology. They clearly are not.

As for Disney, they have a lot of stuff to upsell - toys and other merch, video games, cinema experience and amusement parks.
What does NFLX have? Not a single long-lasting franchise.

Having said that, NFLX is a much stronger company than Tesla and doesn't lie to pump the share price AFAIK.

Here's an extract from an article for you TS:

You hear it all the time from even the most seasoned investors and financial
“experts” that this trend or that “doesn’t make sense.” “It doesn’t make sense
that the dollar keeps going lower” or “it makes no sense that stocks keep going
higher.” But what’s really going on when investors say that something makes no
sense is that they have a dozen or whatever reasons why the trend should be
moving in the opposite direction . . . yet it keeps moving in the current direction.
So they believe the trend makes no sense. But what makes no sense is their
model of the world. That’s what doesn’t make sense. The world always makes
sense.
In fact, because financial trends involve human behavior and human beliefs on
a global scale, the most powerful trends won’t make sense until it becomes too
late to profit from them. By the time investors formulate an understanding that
gives them the confidence to invest, the investment opportunity has already
passed.
So when I hear sophisticated investors or financial commentators say, for
example, that it makes no sense how energy stocks keep going lower, I know
that energy stocks have a lot lower to go. Because all those investors are on the
wrong side of the trade, in denial, probably doubling down on their original
decision to buy energy stocks. Eventually they will throw in the towel and have
to sell those energy stocks, driving prices lower still.

its hard to respond to you because you are off the charts wrong in soo many ways. your best chance is to get in an argument withtooth sayer and forget to not listen

When people stop using these 'contrarian indicators' as a joke and start using it to justify poor fundamentals is when you know the growth market is about to give out. When that happens everyone will rush to energy stocks, driving those prices higher still.

As you can see from the chart, X has gone up, so if I draw some more lines around this pattern... and AHHAHH LOOK HERE, it will keep going up!!! Look at the directions of the lines! #bullrun

And yet you can't point out a single thing and believe ad hominem helps your argument.

teslas pretty different. Netflix is the first to offer content in a new distribution system and picked up massive scale advantages. Tesla is just a very small car maker who has scale disadvantages. edge netflix

I didn't say they are the same. I actually said that as an overall business, NFLX is on a different level.

Tanking pre-market here. I followed this trade in with 2020 200,250 puts when it was around $400. Not really sure what to do here:

1 -Hold onto these for the longterm play of competition killing growth. Disney won fox, others (ATT, Comcast) appear to be serious about controlling some level of distribution. This pretty much kills the only value justification, Nflx becoming some global monopolist everyone pays into.

2 -Try to get cute and hop out/in. As long as the absurdity of fake tech values is going, this stock might have a floor on it in the short term.

3 - Stick with the idea that this is a once in a decade dream trade and just load in heavier along the way.


I saw wework is pulling the same stunt. Take a business that is almost identical to what it was 100 years ago, then paste a tech layer over it in a ripping market and people are ok with insane valuations.

Yeah, depending on when you bought after recommending you're up 40-100% on these. Meanwhile QQQ and SPY are still several percent higher even after the crash yesterday.

I dunno man. Is it a lot of money for you? Are you up 100%? Then take it. A little of the price spike is general volatility and I never mind selling vol when it's very high.

The thesis is long term/the total and obvious destruction/reversal of their growth by Disney in late 2019. Between now and then NFLX could trade between 100 and 500 depending on how their growth goes, whether US subs start declining, etc, and what the market does. The other part of the EV of the thesis is that any market correction is going to flush this turd hard, as we're seeing right now after merely one day of a big correction.

Relative to this Disney thesis I don't think selling or buying has any particular EV when vol is high. It's a personal preference. There's a lot of time before the tards realize NFLX is fated to be a shrinking unprofitable company with appropriate multiples, and they might have more good numbers between now and then, so I think it's a push.

These are up about 80%, I didn't load in enough for the money to be that meaningful, though at a 10 bagger it would be. A rip back to 400+ area would be a dream triple down spot, I think having dry powder makes me less inclined to close here. Still getting used to the idea that the market doesn't know anything, and these go tick by tick with the current price even though to my mind there is almost no connection.

Also sold short and I think the choice is easier there, just hold onto it (borrow is 1% or something) as free money to forget about and collect in 1-2 years.

If the stars really line up:

Tsla over by mid 2019, and this on the edge of cliff somewhere.

Q3 Subs
Added 1.09m in US
Added 5.75m international
Total subs 137m

just assuming normal variance from here on out this bet isnt looking good for me atm.

What is the date?

If you lack the initiative/ability to click on the quote and see the post it was responding to how are you going to win trading the stock?

Salty because I covered at 290. Will be opening again on any moves above $300, possibly lower.