TS if you could whip up a better UI than NFLX then why don't you do it and sell it to someone for a bunch of money rather than brag about being able to do it on a semi dead poker business forum? You constantly talk down successful people and businesses which is amusing but transparent about your own insecurities.

ASAP17, you know exactly what he was saying, stop trying to nibble around the meat because you cannot digest it. NFLX doesn't even hold DIS strap in the content creation game/

I think I'll ask and say whatever I want but thanks for your concern and zero added value to the conversation.

I know your reading comprehension sucks, so here is some sign language that a primate can understand

So on that first bit I'm not sure how valid that survey is given that a lot of Netflix Originals are not actual "originals". A huge chunk of Netflix "originals" existed on BBC, random cable and tv networks and then Netflix bought the rights to them and gave them new life and then re-branded them as originals. Also that article is pretty dated.

There is also the issue of sheer diversity of content in the near term. If you love teen drama/rom coms...Netflix is your jam. Sci-fi or Horror same thing. Comedy specials or documentaries etc etc. They appear to be moving into Anime and I imagine live podcasts etc aren't to far down the line. Netflix has also locked up way more rockstar TV talent than Dis+ so far. Also Dis+ is going to have one arm tied behind their back due to the fact their rule of PG-13 and below only will preclude them from using a lot of their great IP, esp with the addition of Fox. Maybe the move it to Hulu but now you HAVE to buy the bundle when maybe you only want one.

The licensed content is obv the core chunk of what Netflix has and gets the most views in totality, but over the last 2-3 years Netflix has acquired and created a huge swatch of "original" content that has gathered a loyal fanbase and driven the pop culture narrative globally.

Also that second link appears to be based around the exact same survey done in the first link.

I don't disagree that Dis+ will cause some people to choose it over Netflix as it will def be the kid safe streaming channel to have and if you are a diehard Marvel/Star Wars fan you will not want to miss out on it. I think most will carry both until Dis+ proves itself as a true competitor and alternative. I just am of the opinion that Netflix has such a massive diversity of content esp with the planned content budget that Dis+ will take years to catch up and be an equal in product offering. Dis+ said they plan to do the bundle which makes perfect sense but the details are still tbd.

ESPN+'s UX is complete AIDS and the system doesn't even work properly at times. Hopefully Dis+ will be better and that's just the UX. Netflix's backend systems are massive in scale compared to what Dis+ currently has, and its not my opinion - that is from someone I know who is actually working on their systems at Disney right now. They will eventually catch-up but it will take awhile and be incredibly costly. Amazon Video is still working on theirs and they have had years of user data to try and improve it and have still failed.

Also Dis+ is not putting all its holdings on the streaming network...its severely limiting it.

I own Disney but haven't touched Netflix stock in years, which in hindsight didn't work out well, but I don't see Dis+ being a true equal until 2-3 years from now when it is a true bundle or they moved past the Dis+ limitations. Esp if ESPN+ is expanded to include more live sports content offerings and/or all of what ESPN offers and the networks/studios get a grip and start turning down Netflix's $$$ to keep their content for themselves. Live sports can be a true differentiator for Disney as that doesn't appear to be part of Netflix's product roadmap.

I'm not sure I understand this criticism....that just makes it worse for Netflix.

The data is older for sure. More modern data seems to show originals moving up the food chain. Still way short of what would be expected given their intense promotion but at least they're making lots of top ten now. Although part of that is them retiring popular content from for example Fox, so whether this represents preference changes or Netflix users being now stuck with ultra **** content as the good stuff they'd prefer leaves, is harder to say. For example, Fox's decline from 25 to 5 is mostly their content being pulled, not viewing choices/preferences.



I'm not sure I agree with them driving a narrative. They're still second rate content. Nor does the loyal fanbase matter. I'll gladly concede they will keep 80% of their existing membership (minus usual churn) for the first two years after Disney launches. That's your fanboys and harcores on the original (~25%), people who want some Netflix content (~60% including the previous), and the majority of on the fence/don't really like what Netflix has but don't see a great alternative. I'll give you those. My bear thesis relies on those people staying with Netflix.

Netflix just guided to add a mere 0.3 million subscribers in the US next quarter. That's not many. Which brings me to:

I agree with you. And if "most" means "80%" having both/staying with Netflix then Netflix are toast and <$50. You need it to be >90% in the first year for Netflix not to be in permanent major subscriber decline in the US and the growth narrative blown apart. 90% gets you <$200 Netflix in a bull market.

I completely agree with this opinion. What I'm positing is that:

- >5% of people (e.g. busy working parents) buy it just for their kids
- >5% of people (like me) think Netflix is mostly ****, just have it for occasional entertainment and not worth it if there's something that gives you "something to watch" on streaming, especially if it's big budget
- >5% of people will care about the price differential enough or double paying to shut off Netflix
- >5% of people barely use Netflix and just haven't bothered to turn it off as there's nothing else on offer and it's useful sometimes for visitors or kids.

If those numbers are correct then Netflix growth - which is already declining in a near monopoly - is dead.
I'm not going to discount the possibility of corporate programming to mess up the UX. But in this case it's Disney, and it's not hard to get it right.

It's a scaled distributed CDN using AWS. They don't even have their own servers. Granted they do it at massive size (15% of Internet traffic!) but unless Disney is stealing all their subscribers immediately it doesn't matter.

Why would you own Disney? I've never understood that. Going forward from now, holding any company involved in large scale price and supply wars - in Disney's case a price war which undercuts its own revenue elsewhere - is a silly thing to do.

How much of their 130p/e is potential monopoly growth? Their guidance for Q2 was .55 EPS against .99 expected. Seems like this quarter was as good as it gets and they did everything they could to crush their EPS this eanings. I don't see how they don't slowly bleed off for the next 3-6 months as that p/e reaches a more realistic level.

I've owned Disney since the late 2000s. I used some of my money earned after college to buy Dis, Amazon, Google, Apple, Microsoft and some other tech companies. It's not a large amount but never sold any of it. 95% of my money is in index funds not individual stocks...when I want to just gamble with stocks I typical do options.

I'm not savvy enough to call into question the exact % drop you outlined for each type of user base type, esp factoring in that Disney is likely just the first of many more new streaming networks to pop up over next 1-3 years. I thought your core argument was that Dis+ product offering would be superior to Netflix and thus would convert a large % of their users over. But if it is more that it will slowly bleed Netflix growth threw many fractional cuts then I can see that bearing fruit. I feel like the core audience for Dis+ will be A: people with kids and B: fanbois of the main IP of Marvel/SW. In both cases I think those user groups have both Netflx & Dis+. The parents are going to want to watch their Netflix shows, and most those fanbois will too. Now as the cord cutting continues...esp once we enter the next recession...I'm not sure how things play out long term.

I think the key thing I'd say about the general content argument in here is around the notion of "crap content". 99% of the content people have consumed for the last 35+ years has been crap content. Sure occasionally you get a Sopranos, GoT, The Office, Breaking Bad, Seinfeld etc...but most people are just as happy with watching King of Queens, Housewives of Bev Hills, Charles in Charge, or Deadliest Catch. Nobody signs up to Netflix expecting to watch 4-5 hours of great content a night.

Disney will also have a ton of crap content, it will just have some great IP attached to its originals so people will look past the fact it's unoriginal, has bad reviews, etc. Sitcoms typically do the best on these platforms because there is no commitment. You can order or cook your dinner, sit down and jump in to any random Friends, Office, etc while paying more attention to your phone or laptop. What Netflix offers is a wide diversity of "crap" content per say - Bright and Bird Box weren't good movies but just like in the days of Blockbuster when you were walking the isle on Friday night looking for anything interesting to watch...the cover of the VHS had Will Smith, dragons, or an interesting premise and you grabbed it. Now instead it just auto plays the second you open the app based on what Netflix thinks you may like. Add in the factor that everyone seems to be watching and talking about them and FOMO comes into play also.

A mere 2 weeks later:

Disney from $116 to $141 +22%

Netflix from $351 to $378 +8%

Toothloser fails again

I asked you a QUESTION to probe your "I got feels" bullish view of Disney (for which you had no answer), and that is a "fail"? You might be a clown, AND reaching way too hard besides. For the people with low intelligence like TheMVP, the bolded indicates the asking of questions to probe your thesis, and a question about why an alternative play isn't better.

I generally don't think companies entering price wars that undercut their own revenue streams are going to do well once said price war starts, until they get a nice presence in the industry. The beauty of Netflix LEAPS puts, unlike the Disney thesis, is that:

- It doesnt' rely on Disney success. If Disney do merely ok and pull a moderate number of net subscribers then Netflix is still in serious crap/growth decline. The Disney thesis requires Disney doing very well and the market staying strong.
- It's actually made stronger by a price war - Disney thesis is made weaker
- It's a convenient market hedge given that it's a very high beta at insanely inflated prices. Netflix will be under $200 just in a late 2019 bear market alone. We saw what the last correction did to it, down to $240 from $370.

These are the reasons I prefer NFLX long term puts over Disney calls in this space. Are you an "I GOT FEELS" idiot or is your thesis rational? And even if your thesis is good, how is it a better bet on this outcome given the above points, particularly for a market long portfolio, which most have?

You're welcome by the way.

TLDR

You spend all day writing nonsense in the business section of a forum for a game you've never played and can't beat the market. Sad!

Gl with your 'thesis'

My real time posted plays in this thread alone crush the market and the long side.

Why do you post if you don't want to discuss your thesis? That's the mark of an idiot and someone who can't beat the market.

This is you: Huh duh I have thesis! I need not discuss! I will post on internet forum and get excited when it moves slightly my way!

TS - How do you get a sub $100 stock price in 2020 outside of a overall stock market crash? NFLX appears to have firmly established itself as the default subscription for media consumers, even for those who already pay $80+ for cable/directv. Everything else is a cyclical add-on.

When would you predict that Netflix US subscriber growth goes into the negative?

Dis+ won't go live till end of 2019, full scale adoption prob takes 2+ years, and their full content offerings will be meh to start out with.

Just saw this thread and haven't read much but has there been much talk re: NFLX v DIS that existing NFLX subscribers will simply add DIS en masse? Like how many people who actually pay for this stuff will cut one in favor of the other?

I'm the ultimate sucker of an example. We pay for NFLX, Crave, Amazon, cable. I even chip in for MLB.tv. We will probably just add Disney if it is reasonable. We will not just drop Netflix even if we have very little use for their "original content" stuff.

I cant be alone with this mentality. We will just pay more. Too lazy to care much about it.

The boba fett series and pixar alone is enough to be a breath of fresh air compared to the meh content on netflix after exhausting their top content.

"full"
you could binge all their unique IP over a weekend esp since its likely will slowly be trickled out over the first year.

Given NFLX current state and upcoming competitive pressures, what (if anything) could they do with their boatload of money to help stave off their inevitable (to some) demise?

It seems like regardless of the new services, they still have a stronghold on the streaming market. The stock is overvalued but I can't really see them completely fumbling their current advantage?

Live sports and "news". Surprised they didn't buy Cheddar.

They could cut production of the garbage shows they have and focus on the winners.

I think it was expected Comcast would pull The Office for its own service (January 2021) but I'm a bit surprised in how little of a reaction (even if it's a gut overreaction) there is. In fact what's very surprising in how NFLX has been trading is how tight the range (6 months basically between $340-$370)/low vol its been given the supposed headwinds from more existing IP leaving and Disney+ launching.

what about Netflix puts for 2021 and beyond? will they be able to compete? Beyond Stranger Things and Black mirror their original programing is lagging. They are losing office and many other shows.

Fascinating to see the theater stocks puke their guts out both on a relative and absolute basis. That's the risk you have in betting against this name, both NFLX and DIS will succeed (which is why I think the side by side comparison continues to be silly) but beyond that nothing is guaranteed. Surprised how little talk AMC is getting, that is among the worst charts out there and reminder you had the highest grossing opening weekend of all time during the previous quarter.



I think the market is sniffing out that the slate looks pretty weak from top to bottom over the next couple years and the younger you go if you don't make it an event, that won't draw people away from streaming. Habits are changing, the fact the theaters are having to embrace the sub model shows this. It's not enough to run out an old piece of IP and expect a four quadrant film, much tougher to create something original thesedays and put a lot of money behind it.

God damn all these threads dating back a couple years ago when these companies were small and growing...now look at them haha

decline is overstated. last 10 years its -3% (in total)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ce-since-1980/

most of the share price move is multiples coming down because of the fear of what you're talking about, and AMC is overlevered. CNK is 15% off their highs and RGC got bought out.