you could probably be less of a douche and just tell him that the date is January 17th, 2020.

Netflix paid 100 million dollars to secure the rights to the show "Friends" on their platform.

Hard to see this as not confirming the decline thesis:

-Rivals, now including ATT as well as Disney, restrict/charge exorbitant amounts for content. Netflix pays up to keep subs pumped but can't charge enough to make a return.

-Re-runs of a 20 year old sitcom being so valuable to Netflix underlines their central issue, trash original content. Adding new content just creates an un-navigable mess (viewers spend 20 min looking for something, give up, click on 'Friends')

trash content compared to what exactly? network tv? hbo? amazon?

No idea why, but this appears to be happening, dream lol incoming if this hits $400 again.

What are the odds that Netflix US subscriber results are absolutely awful if they're leaking two days before earnings that they're raising prices? Is there a trade here? Thoughts, bulls?

Goldman loves them today and it's up to $352 premarket:
I'm hoping they blow it out and rip so I can finally push in on puts.

NFLX stock up 6% on raising prices. I guess I'm in the minority on this but I'll be cancelling my Netflix subscription before my next bill. It's not worth the $14/mo I pay for it much less the $16/mo it will cost me. LoL @ Netflix "NOTE: We only show up to 1 year of billing history" that way you don't know how much they are ****ing you.

Netflix is pure trash. Disney is going to put their subscriber growth in freefall with far lower prices and large libraries of actual premium content.

A core part of the bull thesis is that Netflix can raise prices substantially and not lose many users. I probably agree with that thesis. Definitely think you're in the small minority here.

I don't mind them raising their prices in general, but they just raised their prices. The first time I was billed $15.14 was late January of 2018. Two price raises totaling $4 in ~1 year is ridiculous.

As for their content, I find most of it to be very low quality trash that I have no interest in watching. The only Netflix show I enjoy watching is Black Mirror. Aside from that i just watch Marvel and Star Wars movies which will both be off Netflix later this year. The only reason I have a subscription at all is for my renters but they'll survive without it.

Have been meaning to cancel for a while, this will just actually make me do it. Not really interested in their original content, licensed content is dwindling and movie selection is trash. Netflix makes up about 10% of my online content while costing 40%.

No offense guys but ancedotal evidence about what you are doing with your own subscriptions is irrelevant. Heard the same thing about people ditching Netflix for a long time now same with the fact that other competitors are pulling their content to their own streaming services...

Where's the proof people are canceling (or going to) and domestic subs won't pay the price increase? Seems to be a huge part of this run up into the print, pricing power is everything. We've discussed a few pages back how multiple surveys from the Netflix base said they would support a plan up to $20/m for the basic service. Even after Disney and others pull their content, there is so much of it out there they won't have a problem negotiating for popular shows/movies given the health and viability of the platform.

Plus one final point, a huge portion of NFLX subs have multiple services and I'd wager some of the other options would be first to go as far as a value proposition in the event of an economic slowdown.

What happened to $300+ already being the dream? Funny how that range expanded as the stock has rallied off the lows.

The starting point just from basic demand curves is that a pricing increase will reduce subs. That's got to be your default position.

You can argue Netflix is a special case and I probably agree with you, I think they have room to raise without cutting their throat which is needed for the bull case. Or at least they will be able to until Disney comes along, then they're in trouble as Disney have a stated aim of aggressively underpricing to grow subs rapidly.

This is just at odds with the Netflix experience - a small range of decent content and a large range of 2nd and 3rd rate content. Netflix can't afford quality at anywhere near their pricing levels and this is a basic structural problem.

I also wouldn't dismiss two people saying they're not going to swallow the increase. You need 2% of subscribers - 1 in 50 - to not swallow it for US subs to go into decline, which the stock is going to hate, particularly if they crush this quarter. My dream scenario is a crush on subs this quarter so a long term put position can finally be entered at a great price.

Lol you've been saying the same thing on pricing power through the last couple of increases, sorry if I don't really care about that opinion. They've proven they can raise and withstand those who really care about $10-$20 increase over a year leaving, we will see how much of an impact it is when Disney finally launches theirs. Just a difference of opinion...

This isn't like AAPL where the value proposition of paying for a premium phone is diminishing, Netflix is still cheaper than most of the competition (cable/other streaming options). Major difference even with the recent domestic (smart not to raise prices abroad as well which none of you mentioned) increase and some of their premium content from other studios disappearing later this year.

Except that is all priced in the equity and the stock is basically priced to perfection despite the economy entering into the late stage of the cycle. NFLX is now selling for 10x revenues with competition finally putting up a fight. As TS would put it, all it takes is growth to end or slow down, and then the hammer falls.

Hence I'm taking a large position in NFLX leap puts. I will surrender if it they do an equity raise and pop despite it, like SHOP did when it did a 20% dilutive raise and popped 20% despite trading for 17x forward revenues.

Good luck Morish, I have nothing against buying LEAPS in fact I think that's the way to play it if you want to take a shot short. The equity has always been priced to perfection, I'd argue when it starts to grow into its valuation is probably when you don't want to be long anymore lol.

Planning on loading back in here as well, looking at going with a later expiry (Jun 2020) as:

-Disney launch date is soft, software projects are universally late, Disney is conservative. I expect they will default to playing the long game knowing they have the content library that counts and avoid anything that could risk their name.

-Whole trade is based on simple truth not being seen by everyone. Later dates reduce this risk as they get another Q or two to report growth declines.

Probably going for 200-270 strike range, not trying for a home run 10x on this trade. Just a large position with a very high chance of getting paid.

Assuming a beat on subs, had a strong quarter in terms of content.
Expect Disney's entry into streaming to be slower than expected and not an initial home run that many suspect. Netflix is gobbling up major hollywood TV creators left and right.
I think they are planning to release two original movies a week in 2019 on top of all the TV series which is nuts. The quality of content is incredibly subjective based on the viewer. Shows the die on other networks are re-born once on Netflix. Bird Box was meh but people gobbled that **** up like crack, cuz it was a "free" studio movie with an A-list actress the could watch without having to deal with going to theater.

One thing Netflix has that competitors don't is incredibly easy access. I can press a button on my smart TV and I'm on Netflix basically equal to changing channels. It is also available through my dvd player and xbox. The fact that Netflix is pre built in to every watching device on the planet and Disney isn't will make an initial difference. Not saying others won't eventually get the same treatment but they don't have it yet. Amazon prime is almost as accessible but not on older devices. New TVs will have access to all of these things but Netflix has the toehold on anything made in the last 5 years.

My biggest problem with NFLX is that its just a media company. If it's a technology company it doesn't seem to be innovating very much. Sure, I suppose they were the first to stream, but now everyone can do that. Every time I search for a movie, they never have what I'm looking for but they are good at using technology to suggest cheap 2nd rate knockoffs of the movie I want to watch.

If they are really a technology company I'd expect to see much more innovation than that though, such as integrating social media into their product and greatly increasing the amount of interactive content they offer. IE something that really gives them a large competitive edge that isn't easily replicated by competitors.

NFLX's biggest edge right now is from the media side, not the technology side. NFLX can create more content than anyone else. The problem with this is that most of what they are creating is just crap. Some of their biggest investments like Bright and Cloverfield Paradox have been gigantic flops. I spoke to Marvel Chairman/CEO Ike Perlmutter back in early 2008 and what he told me is that they only had one movie lose them money since they took control of Marvel in the late 90s (Elektra). That's 15 money makers and 1 dud...an incredible batting average in the film business, and that was even before any of the Marvel Cinematic Universe movies had come out, which we all know were even bigger money makers.

Marvel properties print money. Star Wars properties print money. This is who NFLX is going to be up against. Right now netflix is a must have for many consumers because there aren't many alternatives. That will change as all the major media companies and all the major technology companies get into the game. Once that happens you will see that while NFLX has a lot of content, they don't have much "must see" content while Disney most certainly will.

I'm not denying that NFLX can't be a great short term trade though especially right now while they have little competition.

They should call it "Netflix and Chill"

Bright wasn’t a flop - I believe prior to bird box it was one of their most watched movies for then which is all that really matters. Hence the fact they are making a sequel.

Again the notion of the value of Netflix’s original content is incredibly subjective to the viewership - what u or I might think is crap may be the main reason someone maintains their Netflix subscription. Also everyone I hear say Netflix is all crap is also always watching Netflix and talking about its content on social media etc.

I make no qualms over Disney/Fox having superior content due to their catalog libraries but it’s still very unclear what exactly the Disney streaming service will equal beyond the marvel/Star Wars movies and tv shows announced.

Their tech and UI is superior to Hulu and Amazon and all other players and it’s highly likely Disney will be well behind the eight ball in that area. Disney’s strength will be in brand/content.

Also if Disney’s sub price is quite low as speculated — I think it for more likely users view it as an add on rather than a choice between DIS/NFLX. Despite all that I don’t think I’d ever want to touch the stock at these levels...though I do wish I bought some in Dec lol.

Agreed plus I don't see adults especially those without kids forgoing a Netflix subscription in favor of Disney. As popular as Marvel, Lucas, Pixar, Frozen etc are it seems more like an addition to a streaming portfolio rather than an anchor (meaning a service like Netflix that has choices for everyone). The reverse argument of that is once the major studios pull maybe Netflix won't be as family friendly but like I said above the health of the platform will make negotiating for existing content as a plus. Every provider has to pay for content thesedays, it's more about the value proposition to each consumer that will make the difference.

One other thing about Disney's service that isn't being discussed is a lot of their programming is going to be repeats meaning shows and movies their targeted audience has already been exposed to. I'm sure they will have some exclusive content and sneak peaks but still they have to be committed to movie theaters and their own networks. Netflix clearly doesn't have that problem, the platform itself is the launching pad. A lot of executional risk there especially given the huge investment that's going to be required.