The starting point just from basic demand curves is that a pricing increase will reduce subs. That's got to be your default position.
You can argue Netflix is a special case and I probably agree with you, I think they have room to raise without cutting their throat which is needed for the bull case. Or at least they will be able to until Disney comes along, then they're in trouble as Disney have a stated aim of aggressively underpricing to grow subs rapidly.
Quote:
Even after Disney and others pull their content, there is so much of it out there they won't have a problem negotiating for popular shows/movies given the health and viability of the platform
This is just at odds with the Netflix experience - a small range of decent content and a large range of 2nd and 3rd rate content. Netflix can't afford quality at anywhere near their pricing levels and this is a basic structural problem.
I also wouldn't dismiss two people saying they're not going to swallow the increase. You need 2% of subscribers - 1 in 50 - to not swallow it for US subs to go into decline, which the stock is going to hate, particularly if they crush this quarter. My dream scenario is a crush on subs this quarter so a long term put position can finally be entered at a great price.