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Originally Posted by Sportsfanx1
Yes, but using your first data set, has there ever been a 10 year period of time without a reasonable (10%+) one year pull back? While we did just go from 8,000 down to 6,200 from October 2018 through December 2018, wouldn't the above statistics demonstrate the highly unlikely (and almost impossible) probability of the 10/18-12/18 NASDAQ move? Granted, the volitility during that time frame was highly unlikely (and almost unprecedented).
I'm quite a big believer that
nearly everybody would be better off if they just assumed the efficient market hypothesis was true, but even if it wasn't I don't think you can make any real inferences about patterns based on such a tiny sample...
BUT: even without any complex calculations, just scanning the list and counting the number of times it's gone >= +14% (eg: 8/7-1) vs <= -14% (eg: 6/7−1); it's a 23:5 ratio.
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And again, thanks for the analysis!
No problem and if you're interested then it's really just the same sort of method as used to calculate option prices - you can probably find an online calculator that will give you the correct answer (but again you'll have to be careful to note exactly the form of input it expects).
Juk