Nasdaq at 7000: Will it hit 6000 or 8000 first? - Page 2 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

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Nasdaq at 7000: Will it hit 6000 or 8000 first?

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01-18-2019 , 04:56 AM

#26

:::grimReaper:::

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Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

^Whoops, didn't realize OP was talking about the composite.

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01-20-2019 , 02:51 PM

#27

juan valdez

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Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,686

Quote:

Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::

^Whoops, didn't realize OP was talking about the composite.

If you were referring to put skew, that's just normal

Quote

01-20-2019 , 10:39 PM

#28

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

Quote:

Originally Posted by juan valdez

If you were referring to put skew, that's just normal

Of course (though certain stocks don't have a put skew). What I was saying is that delta is understood as an approximation to the probability of the underlying closing ITM at expiration. I say "understood" because I never data-mined this myself.

Not that financial markets follow a normal distribution, but for the sake of math, the relationship is exact if you assume a normal distribution. Here's some math I did for fun some time ago:

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01-21-2019 , 05:06 AM

#29

PocketInfinities

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Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,915

hits 8500 before 6200

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04-16-2019 , 10:19 AM

#30

Janabis

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 1,753

Bump for 8000 today. OP was posted exactly 3 months ago, and since then the Nasdaq has returned about 14%.

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04-16-2019 , 10:43 AM

#31

btc

Challah Atcha

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 2,576

What's all that math and TA got to do with it? The last time Tiger won a major, there was a crash a few months later. Sept swoon '19

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04-16-2019 , 10:45 AM

#32

turtletom

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 1,749

My guess was about 3.50

I'm curious what Tooth's call on it. Wondering if he taking out a big risk trade and putting $40 on the line for a potential 12-bagger. WOW wouldn't that be something!

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04-16-2019 , 11:00 AM

#33

rand

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Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 4,137

8k and its not even close.

But I am still a bear. Its just tough to call a top. Honestly, 8k feels like its in spitting distance.

If we don't make it before next cycle and Warren (or maybe Sanders) gets elected, sell everything.

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04-17-2019 , 01:55 AM

#34

WorldBoFree

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 1,599

Quote:

Originally Posted by rand

How has your market timing been going the past four months or so? You kind of disappeared.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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04-17-2019 , 02:51 AM

#35

somigosaden

adept

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,069

Quote:

Originally Posted by rand

The Nasdaq is already at 8k. The prognostication period has past. Maybe you can impart some of your wisdom on whether the Rams will beat the Patriots in this years Super Bowl.

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04-17-2019 , 08:31 AM

#36

unfrgvn

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 1,850

I'm going to go with 8000. Now will it hit 9000 before 7000?

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04-17-2019 , 10:50 AM

#37

btc

Challah Atcha

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 2,576

Quote:

Originally Posted by turtletom

My guess was about 3.50

I'm curious what Tooth's call on it. Wondering if he taking out a big risk trade and putting $40 on the line for a potential 12-bagger. WOW wouldn't that be something!

will turtle graduate closer to 40 or 50 years old?

who gives af he's still wouldn't have learned anything

Quote

04-17-2019 , 12:38 PM

#38

rand

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 4,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by somigosaden

The Nasdaq is already at 8k. The prognostication period has past. Maybe you can impart some of your wisdom on whether the Rams will beat the Patriots in this years Super Bowl.

IDK what you are talking about. NQX NQM QQQ none of them are 8k.

Quote

04-17-2019 , 12:41 PM

#39

rand

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 4,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by WorldBoFree

How has your market timing been going the past four months or so? You kind of disappeared.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just been busy, hven't really seen any threads that interested me.

We did just have a 20 - 25% correction...

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04-17-2019 , 01:27 PM

#40

rand

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 4,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by rand

IDK what you are talking about. NQX NQM QQQ none of them are 8k.

Nvm... Didn't notice when this thread was made.

Quote

04-17-2019 , 03:53 PM

#41

WorldBoFree

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 1,599

Quote:

Originally Posted by rand

Just been busy, hven't really seen any threads that interested me.

We did just have a 20 - 25% correction...

Yes, and Im specifically asking what your results have been, if you are willing to be honest and divulge.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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04-17-2019 , 05:45 PM

#42

PocketInfinities

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Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,915

“It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the present.”

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04-17-2019 , 05:53 PM

#43

rand

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Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 4,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by WorldBoFree

Yes, and Im specifically asking what your results have been, if you are willing to be honest and divulge.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, thats fair. Its been a scratch. Which is a win in my book. Any time I take risk and I don't loose I am happy. But a year is a pretty long time to break even.

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04-17-2019 , 05:53 PM

#44

rand

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 4,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by WorldBoFree

Yes, and Im specifically asking what your results have been, if you are willing to be honest and divulge.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

How about you?

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04-17-2019 , 07:19 PM

#45

WorldBoFree

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 1,599

Quote:

Originally Posted by rand

How about you?

I didnt sell anything during the downturn and put about 25% of my cash into the market since. I regret not putting more.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote

04-17-2019 , 07:22 PM

#46

turtletom

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 1,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by btc

will turtle graduate closer to 40 or 50 years old?

who gives af he's still wouldn't have learned anything

Lol. Already have a bachelors in gender studies. You are a little late.

Quote

04-17-2019 , 11:34 PM

#47

btc

Challah Atcha

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 2,576

Being the only bachelor in womens studies doesn't mean you got your bachelors. That's not how it works. Here's a how-to you might find helpful:

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04-18-2019 , 04:43 PM

#48

WorldBoFree

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 1,599

Ladies and gentleman, here we have two trolls trying to **** a football!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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04-18-2019 , 11:28 PM

#49

gangip

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,087

Quote:

Originally Posted by rand

Any time I take risk and I don't loose I am happy.

You're doing it wrong

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04-20-2019 , 08:09 PM

#50

rand

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 4,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by gangip

You're doing it wrong

Maybe. But I bet there is a good chance that you are doing it wrong or that you misunderstand me.

Care to elaborate?

Quote

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