Considering you can get a 2.5% (or more) return on cash without taking on risk, it seems odd that you'd simply be relieved to have not lost after having taken on risk.

Man, the ignorance reveals itself...

For starters I would sincerely suggest you disillusion yourself of the notion of risk free return.

Secondly, you do like understand the concept of risk right? And see the difference? It is exposure to the upside. I broke even after taking some big risks.

Call it variance, bad decisions, or w.e. but I had upside exposure beyond the 2.5%. If you invest in your 'risk free scenario,' you will never make more than 2.5%...

I am not relieved that I broke even, I am disappointed. But I count it as a win because it is not a loss. No drawdown on capital. It means you get to live to fight another day.

I can make a poker analogy if you still do not understand it.

grunching.

I dont expect much volatility with low energy prices...im not expecting big swings anytime soon. markets are getting efficient, meaning we dont bid up assets like the 2k tech bubble. The nasdaq isnt even tech anymore its loaded with heavyweight established companies and we know how to price them. in 2000 we did not know how to price them.

The general failure in the investing world is that of imminence...that something is right there, or we are at the cusp. Investors that can dissect inevitable from imminence do well, and those that conflate make big mistakes

Markets are getting efficient at taking people's money. Plenty of bubbles to come. Especially so long as the Fed et al pursue MMT...

nah i dont buy it. We can barely get the inflation needle moving and that only happens when energy ticks up. mmt is something that came out of QE. when QE happened, it didnt uptick inflation or bubbles, so economists were fairly shocked by how little difference it made.

the issue i have with mmt is tht its always applied to a massive spending campaign. but we could just wipe debt and increase tax cuts and the flood of capital coming into such a desirable system protects the currency.

we are not even close to having bubbles. the next 20 years are a desperate struggle to create some sort of bubble.

The approach i believe will work is to monetize debt, fairly agressively and increase interest rates gradually get them up to 6% and just wipe debt. its offsetting. then dont use interest rates to control inflation. JApan already holds a ton of thier etfs....this is where we are headed. bubbles? forget it. its going to take a lot of firepower to keep things humming. a bubble will be some fantastic dream that happened 20 years ago

I think a few people are stuck on 2009. its not 2009. its 2019. inflation is dead and it is not going to be easy to hit 2%

This (the bolded) is 100% wrong. I haven't read the rest. Might later. QE came out of MMT...

you are splitting hairs. im not sure what came first but what happened is qe didnt do very much in terms of inflation or exchange rates, so economists are looking at this and thinking hmmmm. in reality the US could wipe a big chunck of debt and Japan could wipe 70% or so tomorrow and it might not uptick inflation, because the inflationary move already occurred when they did the QE in the first place. forgiving the debt is not inflationary. so thus mmt becomes en vogue.

I feel we have a central bank with a chastity belt. it can be so much more effective if given the right tools and coordinated with the government.

I am not splitting hairs, you were dead wrong. You are making your facts up to support your beliefs.

The price of gold nearly double during QE and the stupid interest rate targeting practiced by the fed.

Your inflation numbers are probably as broken as much of the other numbers you likely believe.

The Fed's dual mandate, QE and the rest of it is bad. It is an exercise in hubris and futility and demonstrates at best a superficial understanding of markets and is a bastardization of real capitalism.

I don't have time for this. Maybe someone else will continue this conversation with you. Or maybe I will later.

OMG, I just read this. Are you trolling me?

I don't think bubbles are over just yet. We recently had a bubble in Bitcoin last year. Now perhaps Marijuana stock? I'm no good at evaluating companies, but a lot of hype seems to be in Marijuana.

If markets were efficient I could buy stocks at random and have the same returns as someone who is a seasoned investor. I find this unlikely.

Yeah, that escalated quickly! Would have never believed it could have moved like it did since December (however, would have also never believed it would have moved so far to the downside like it did from October to December). But, on my "longer term" holdings, I gave up fighting for and waiting for the (hopeful) downtrend a little over a month ago, licked my wounds, and switched to the uptrend and have simply been enjoying the ride since....

Im not really trolling. but its just comments im not attacking anyone im stating broad beliefs.

Let me state what I believe rather than nitpick every comment, then you can take it or leave it.

- I believe inflation left town when the US started pumping oil
- I believe a recession will never(in the investment horizon) happen if energy doesnt spike
- I believe its going to take a ton of firepower to stave off moderate growth.
-i believe monetizing debt will be the norm
-Hypothetically I suspect the best system is higher interest rates, heavy fiscal spending (tax cuts) and wiping debt through the central bank.


believe as you wish

Well, if you at all subscribe to the squiggly lines moving on a screen (i.e., TA), an interesting level change occurred today. Given that and other political climate issues, I think "enjoying the ride" uptrend should be over for a while. Could get ugly quickly?

Junk bonds HYG JNK made a nasty print yesterday. Failed breakout turned big red shooting star candle. Homebuilders look like crap too.

Seems like an orderly and much needed pullback, I mean the market has barely had b2b red days this entire year so not sure what the big deal is off ATHs. You think fund managers and retail aren't dying to get some lower prices after the V recovery and literally no pullbacks? One thing I would point out is that small and mid caps are still way off their 2018 highs and the breadth on this recent move has been a bit narrower than you'd want for a true breakout. I think Blackrock CEO Larry Fink put it perfectly and obviously he would have some insight that the risk is of a melt up kind of like what happened in 2017, we want volatility both as traders and investors.

Obviously, Nasdaq 8k won but what about now that it is sitting at 7,874.88?

Does it hit 6,000 or 8,000 next?

I would guess 8k still even with the Coronavirus.

Nasdaq is now at 6,904.59.

I guess just one more day like today and it would hit 6,000. Seriously though today was the largest loss in nasdaq history down 12.32%.