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07-20-2018 , 07:22 AM
I recently sold my first house, paid off all my CC's, a loan and two cars. I'm 29 and finally realized that I need to start investing in some capacity. I'm currently putting 20% of my Salary into a 401K and looking for something to do with some of the profit left over from the house.

The kid in me really REALLY wants an Infinity Q50, it was my rental this year in Vegas for two weeks and I loved it, but I know that it's not a wise choice. I've been flirting with the idea of buying 100 shares of MSFT to buy and "forget" so to speak. Not sure if that is a wise idea or not. It's been on my radar to do so ever since it hit in the 90's and it's now at 104 last I checked.

It's doubled in price in two years and I know it should go higher thanks to Azure, everyone's "need" for cloud computing, and I know the Military wants and thinks it "needs" cloud computing of its own.

Like with everything else, the market is rolling along, everything seems to be gaining. I don't see a crash like 08-09 anytime soon, and definitely not for MSFT even when it does, but I know the Market HAS to correct itself somewhat sometime soonish. I'm sure it'll dip some in the winter months.

Questions really is this for the gurus.

As a one time purchase for personal investing would you assume now is a safe time to invest approx 10K into MSFT?

If anyone has any more questions about me, my intelligence level, backgroud etc. before giving their advice/opinions/jokes/inb4 etc.. Just ask, i'm pretty thick skinned.

Thanks.
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07-20-2018 , 07:36 AM
Be careful about being so sure about things that would reflect in stock prices. You might have figured something out, that most people haven't. But more probable, you don't understand as many aspects of the situation as those who have invested large sums of money into those stocks.
How about putting the 10K into an index fund instead?
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07-20-2018 , 07:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Mat Cauthon
How about putting the 10K into an index fund instead?
Not really since i'm putting my 401K into index funds instead.
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07-20-2018 , 01:45 PM
What's your favorite food and intelligence level? Also, MSFT should be a pretty good stock. My guess is marginal out performance of S&P going forward.
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07-20-2018 , 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by J33W
Not really since i'm putting my 401K into index funds instead.
put the more actively traded stuff in your 401k and the stuff you plan to hold a long long time in your non tax deferred account. that way everything is effectively tax deferred.
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07-21-2018 , 10:46 AM
Buy MU or AMD
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07-22-2018 , 09:41 AM
The military already uses AWS for its cloud computing needs.

https://aws.amazon.com/govcloud-us/

I suggest you index.
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07-22-2018 , 11:10 PM
Probably better to put it in a tech index if you want more volatility and higher expectation than your 401k.
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07-23-2018 , 09:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Janabis
Probably better to put it in a tech index if you want more volatility and higher expectation than your 401k.
no guys does noone understand this? the 401k is the best vehicle for high volatility and shorter term trades.

if investing in a regular taxable account you want to put stuff that is stable and will be around in 20 years like an index or a long lasting stock...that way you wont have to pay the tax for a long time which makes up for the lower annual return by compounding.

people automatically think 401k = defensive, regular account gambool but its the complete opposite. gamble / trade with the tax deferred account and hold forever in the taxable account. im canadian so im assuming 401k = rrsp and you dont have a tfsa, the tfsa is awesome

its hard to beat the market...the best foundation is to pay the least taxes in whatever strat you choose

Last edited by piepounder; 07-23-2018 at 09:45 PM.
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07-23-2018 , 10:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by J33W
I recently sold my first house, paid off all my CC's, a loan and two cars. I'm 29 and finally realized that I need to start investing in some capacity. I'm currently putting 20% of my Salary into a 401K and looking for something to do with some of the profit left over from the house.

The kid in me really REALLY wants an Infinity Q50, it was my rental this year in Vegas for two weeks and I loved it, but I know that it's not a wise choice. I've been flirting with the idea of buying 100 shares of MSFT to buy and "forget" so to speak. Not sure if that is a wise idea or not. It's been on my radar to do so ever since it hit in the 90's and it's now at 104 last I checked.

It's doubled in price in two years and I know it should go higher thanks to Azure, everyone's "need" for cloud computing, and I know the Military wants and thinks it "needs" cloud computing of its own.

Like with everything else, the market is rolling along, everything seems to be gaining. I don't see a crash like 08-09 anytime soon, and definitely not for MSFT even when it does, but I know the Market HAS to correct itself somewhat sometime soonish. I'm sure it'll dip some in the winter months.

Questions really is this for the gurus.

As a one time purchase for personal investing would you assume now is a safe time to invest approx 10K into MSFT?

If anyone has any more questions about me, my intelligence level, backgroud etc. before giving their advice/opinions/jokes/inb4 etc.. Just ask, i'm pretty thick skinned.

Thanks.
this reads as a textbook example of behavioral mistakes in investing. almost everything you wrote is disproved by efficient market theory level 1, which pretty much everyone agrees applies to the markets.
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07-23-2018 , 11:12 PM
just list the behaviour mistakes
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07-24-2018 , 07:26 AM
buying 1 individual stock
"I know it should go higher"
listing all the widely public information as to why it should go higher
market rolling along and not seeing a crash and def not for msft
sure it'll dip in winter
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07-24-2018 , 12:50 PM
yolo, buy the car
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07-26-2018 , 07:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by piepounder
no guys does noone understand this? the 401k is the best vehicle for high volatility and shorter term trades.

if investing in a regular taxable account you want to put stuff that is stable and will be around in 20 years like an index or a long lasting stock...that way you wont have to pay the tax for a long time which makes up for the lower annual return by compounding.

people automatically think 401k = defensive, regular account gambool but its the complete opposite. gamble / trade with the tax deferred account and hold forever in the taxable account. im canadian so im assuming 401k = rrsp and you dont have a tfsa, the tfsa is awesome

its hard to beat the market...the best foundation is to pay the least taxes in whatever strat you choose
Do any 401ks let you buy individual stocks, leveraged ETFs, or anything high volatility?
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07-27-2018 , 12:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry
Buy MU or AMD
You seem like a man who likes his Tendies
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07-27-2018 , 02:33 AM
Nothing wrong with this plan when you are maxing out 20% in your 401k. MSFT is a good pick......another cloud play with high upside is TWLO which is nearly a 3-bagger over the past 5 months that could be ready to take off.
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07-27-2018 , 11:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by piepounder
no guys does noone understand this? the 401k is the best vehicle for high volatility and shorter term trades.

if investing in a regular taxable account you want to put stuff that is stable and will be around in 20 years like an index or a long lasting stock...that way you wont have to pay the tax for a long time which makes up for the lower annual return by compounding.

people automatically think 401k = defensive, regular account gambool but its the complete opposite. gamble / trade with the tax deferred account and hold forever in the taxable account. im canadian so im assuming 401k = rrsp and you dont have a tfsa, the tfsa is awesome

its hard to beat the market...the best foundation is to pay the least taxes in whatever strat you choose
Agreed, but you should also mention that high dividend paying stuff and Bonds should also go in tax deferred, which kind of goes against what you're saying about having the most risky stuff in your 401K...
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07-27-2018 , 01:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
this reads as a textbook example of behavioral mistakes in investing. almost everything you wrote is disproved by efficient market theory level 1, which pretty much everyone agrees applies to the markets.
I thought your whole thing was stock picking? Not that I think his thesis is sophisticated enough to matter, but are you implying that all fundamental stock picking is breakeven?

Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
Agreed, but you should also mention that high dividend paying stuff and Bonds should also go in tax deferred, which kind of goes against what you're saying about having the most risky stuff in your 401K...
Assuming you have some time until retirement, the taxes saved on returns far outweigh potential taxes saved on low growth principal.
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07-27-2018 , 04:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TooCuriousso1
You seem like a man who likes his Tendies
Don't know what that means
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07-27-2018 , 05:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
buying 1 individual stock
"I know it should go higher"
listing all the widely public information as to why it should go higher

market rolling along and not seeing a crash and def not for msft
sure it'll dip in winter
were your rationales in your stock picking thread any different?

i definitely agree on the one stock.

i think the OP is generally correct on the market but he is incorrect in thinking one stock and holding it forever.

seems like a tech or internet ETF or mutual fund is a better idea. FSPTX or FDN or something like those
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07-28-2018 , 09:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eastern motors
Do any 401ks let you buy individual stocks, leveraged ETFs, or anything high volatility?
You can get a self-direct IRA and invest in real estate, businesses, make loans, options on real estate, all sorts of high volatility stuff.
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07-29-2018 , 08:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie
were your rationales in your stock picking thread any different?

i definitely agree on the one stock.

i think the OP is generally correct on the market but he is incorrect in thinking one stock and holding it forever.

seems like a tech or internet ETF or mutual fund is a better idea. FSPTX or FDN or something like those
yes completely. I actually gave reasons why I think my picks were undervalued and should increase more than the market. and I explained why those reasons were missed by the market.

Here he doesnt give reasons, he just says he knows. hes also talking about the 3rd largest marketcap company in the world vs an underfollowed micro cap.

Last edited by ahnuld; 07-29-2018 at 08:26 AM.
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07-29-2018 , 08:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ibavly
I thought your whole thing was stock picking? Not that I think his thesis is sophisticated enough to matter, but are you implying that all fundamental stock picking is breakeven?



Assuming you have some time until retirement, the taxes saved on returns far outweigh potential taxes saved on low growth principal.
I should have called it weak form but some people like me call it level 1.
It basically means you cant beat the market by looking at a chart, why I believe, but you can by doing your research and uncovering things others dont know.
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07-30-2018 , 12:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry
Don't know what that means
damn, r/wallstreetbets reference
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07-30-2018 , 12:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by J33W
Questions really is this for the gurus.

As a one time purchase for personal investing would you assume now is a safe time to invest approx 10K into MSFT?

If anyone has any more questions about me, my intelligence level, backgroud etc. before giving their advice/opinions/jokes/inb4 etc.. Just ask, i'm pretty thick skinned.

Thanks.
You should take that 10k and invest into a diversified, risk balanced portfolio of assets (Stocks, bonds, cash, real-estate) and include MS in your portfolio.

We may not see a crash like 2008 but we are likely to see a crash like 2001 because the current stock market is hugely overvalued and we have a massive public debt problem. There are VC/PE investment patterns have been similar to during the dotcom bubble. We've seen huge volatility spikes this year.

One domino falling such as a unicorn dying could trigger a huge crash.

Given that, I would allocate a smaller amount to stocks and larger amount to cash (CDs, High Interest Savings, etc.) and smaller amount to stocks than current recommended conservative strategies. And obviously flip this allocation after a market crash or if conditions improve.
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