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Might be time to leave poker? Alternatives? Might be time to leave poker? Alternatives?

10-29-2018 , 09:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
These are wonderful until a recession starts. Then your 5 year return goes negative as you lose some of your capital.

You do this kind of stuff at the start of bulls/end of recessions when credit it tight and prices are cheap, not late in the business cycle.

What kind of a ****head can't get loans at <10% for real estate in the current easy lending market? That's who you're lending to. It all goes fine while everything is going up...when the music stop you're holding the bag as the lender.
In general, yes I would agree. But the point of my post was to cherry pick the best deals out there. He only does loans on beautiful properties that if he had to hold the bag he wouldn't mind keeping the property himself getting it at such a discount in price. The loan to value of the property is super low at under 33% usually.

He loans out $200k on a beautiful property that's worth $600-900k+. If the owner misses interest payments, it goes into default interest which jumps to 22%. He will be made full when the property goes into auction.
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10-29-2018 , 09:36 AM
I'm not understanding how these loans come about. Who has $500K to put down on a property but needs to go private to borrow an extra $200K at 10% while having the income to pay it back? I can't think anyone legit who'd be in that scenario. Genuinely curious.
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10-29-2018 , 10:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
This is complete bull****. Average starting salary for a programmer is $55K, not $80K, and it's certainly not $150K after 5 years (the US average is $77K after 5 years).



He'll be starting in his 30s competing against people who've programmed their entire life.

Programming is a good solid job, and you can get high salaries if you're talented and as you get experience, but let's keep it real, ok?
my numbers may be on the high side, but yours seems really low. I am not a genius and I started at close to 80k and I am not exactly located in a tech hub. others from the programming forum made similar numbers adjusted for location.

when I was looking, most starting salaries in cali were in the 100-120k range.
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10-29-2018 , 10:20 AM
Here's another source for San Diego, from GlassDoor:



$60K starting, $80K average salaries.

The big tech jobs in SF that require strong skills/a high intelligence and start at $120K+ really skew the numbers. Unless you can land one of the those, you're very much starting at $60K.
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10-29-2018 , 10:31 AM
I think a guy who killed poker, saved over a mill, and then went to a top boot camp will hit 120k in cali and 80k in other markets to start.

I think your salaries are very low. Many of the grads from my bootcamp made 70-80k starting out and obv none of us were super experienced or talented and this is friggin north east ohio.
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10-29-2018 , 05:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
I think a guy who killed poker, saved over a mill, and then went to a top boot camp will hit 120k in cali and 80k in other markets to start.

I think your salaries are very low. Many of the grads from my bootcamp made 70-80k starting out and obv none of us were super experienced or talented and this is friggin north east ohio.
There are thousands of military civilian/contractor computer jobs in San Diego. They don't start that high so maybe the market is lower than NorCal.
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10-29-2018 , 05:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rand
I'd also suggest you try and buy a 4-family (at least if you are in the states) w/ an FHA loan and a fixed rate mortgage. Live in one unit, go to school and let the tenants / ABNBers pay your mortgage. This set up basically lets you build equity and live for free.
This is really good advice. I got an FHA loan for a duplex and tenants paid 75% of mortgage. A 4-plex would be even better. You only have to live there for the first year and put 3.5% down.
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10-29-2018 , 05:47 PM
I want to weigh in on the idea of "coding" jobs be saturated. There is so much friction in the job market it is ridiculous. All (almost all) companies are always hiring. But we also have (or have had) significant unemployment.

It (the job market) is not about entering a market where there is no competition. It is about competing. Are you good enough to warrant that salary? To stand out? Then you will get the job.

And if you think "coding" is crowded, please do not look at finance or law. AI is coming.

The reason that "coding" is still the move, crowded or not, is because it is value added to pretty much every other discipline out there. Want to go into finance, can you write VBA? Want to start small business, can you build a website and run a marketing campaign? Want to go into research, can you write in Python or some other scripting language? Want to live in the information age? Might be a good idea to learn what you can about how information is produced and organized.

Want to get a JD? All else being equal who do you think the law firm is more likely to hire? The guy with a BA in english lit, or the guy with a BS who can fix the office router and printer, manage an ad words campaign, and interview the tech consultants to see if they are FOS or not?
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10-29-2018 , 09:24 PM
here's some programming salary data I have.


O'Reilly 2016-2017 Web Salary Survey (sample size 2k, data collected march/april 2016, respondents self-chosen)




middle white tick = median, red bar = +25% / -25% from median, covers a 50% respondent range


O'Reilly 2017 Software Development Salary Survey (Sample size 6,800, self-selected)





Doesn't look like the 2018 report is out yet, but you should be able to download this for free from OReilly.
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10-30-2018 , 09:17 AM
OP should try coding because if he likes it, it's a stable career with decent prospects.

That doesn't mean coding is the end all be all. In fact many people hate it but do it anyway because they see it as a sure route to the upper middle class. The OP doesn't have to do that... And probably couldn't find the willpower to do so. Once you've already 'made it' your tolerance for absurdly grindy and painful stuff goes way down. I know mine has.
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10-30-2018 , 08:15 PM
Thanks for all the input, guys. This has been really helpful.

I decided to do a coding bootcamp. It fits pretty well for me right now because I could knock one out before heading to San Diego. I also think it'd just be cool to learn something new, and if nothing ever came from it career wise, that'd be OK.

I'm also going to spend spare time this year learning about buying and operating a small business. I think that'd be a really exciting path to go, assuming I was prepared, and felt confident about it.
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10-30-2018 , 08:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tien
Starting a business is all cool and dandy, but most business fail, just like most poker players lose money. Even "smart" people that play poker can lose money.

If you want to start a business, shadow a profitable business by working for it, learn whats going on, before you make your own wheel. Having a lot of money to "start" a business is not always a great thing.
I think the whole "small business" thing grew into something bigger than it is. I could likely form a successful home inspection company relatively quick with pretty low risk if that was my passion or became worth it to do so. It's something I know.

Throwing in a few 100k to test out a unique dining experience with a background of youtube/2+2/and small talk with success stories isn't the same. I think most non idiots can start a small business in a particular trade/idea if they can maintain focus and interest.
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10-31-2018 , 09:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OhManWhatNext
Thanks for all the input, guys. This has been really helpful.

I decided to do a coding bootcamp. It fits pretty well for me right now because I could knock one out before heading to San Diego. I also think it'd just be cool to learn something new, and if nothing ever came from it career wise, that'd be OK.

I'm also going to spend spare time this year learning about buying and operating a small business. I think that'd be a really exciting path to go, assuming I was prepared, and felt confident about it.
where are you located?

I think you should find a bootcamp in san diego area if that is where you are going to live. Bootcamps are still very much a regional thing and California esp may look down on far away bootcamps. For example, the bootcamp that I went to has like a 90% job rate but I doubt that a single person even got a reply from a resume sent to Cal.

The strength of most bootcamps in terms of jobs is their local employer network. A good bootcamp will have tons of contacts at local jobs and can arrange interviews and meetups with those companies.

Also, make sure you do your research on the bootcamp. There are quite a few fly by night places and even some of the big ones have gotten in trouble for essentially lying about their job placement rate.

there a lot of other things to consider. this is a good thread although a bit dated as things have changed a lot in the last couple years.
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...sroom-1579842/

bootcamps are a lot of work. its 8 hours a day of learning along with a job search. Some people send out thousands of resumes.
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10-31-2018 , 02:43 PM
IMO if you are a successful poker player and want to be passive with your investments you should at least learn what a covered call is and pick up a couple books to help you with asset allocation.

There really is no excuse for handing your money to someone else or not learning about investing when you have sizable savings. If you had a small roll or planned on spending it all on a home or business, that's different. If you plan on getting a job and sitting on it, it's just a careless mistake to avoid learning imo

I would guess having a portfolio managing covered positions in etf's would clobber the returns of a vanguard portfolio with less volatility over the long run
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10-31-2018 , 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
where are you located?

I think you should find a bootcamp in san diego area if that is where you are going to live. Bootcamps are still very much a regional thing and California esp may look down on far away bootcamps. For example, the bootcamp that I went to has like a 90% job rate but I doubt that a single person even got a reply from a resume sent to Cal.

The strength of most bootcamps in terms of jobs is their local employer network. A good bootcamp will have tons of contacts at local jobs and can arrange interviews and meetups with those companies.

Also, make sure you do your research on the bootcamp. There are quite a few fly by night places and even some of the big ones have gotten in trouble for essentially lying about their job placement rate.

there a lot of other things to consider. this is a good thread although a bit dated as things have changed a lot in the last couple years.
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...sroom-1579842/

bootcamps are a lot of work. its 8 hours a day of learning along with a job search. Some people send out thousands of resumes.
Interesting, wow. I'm Boston based right now. We have General Assembly and a few others. If employment and their local network is such a big part of it, waiting till SD seems like the play, though.
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10-31-2018 , 05:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OhManWhatNext
Interesting, wow. I'm Boston based right now. We have General Assembly and a few others. If employment and their local network is such a big part of it, waiting till SD seems like the play, though.
Definitely wait, there's plenty of prep work you can be doing in the interim to make sure you kick ass once you actually start, and the ROI on being top 10-20% of the bootcamp class is well worth it. Also as someone that went through one in the early days and then has seen resumes/worked with/interviewed people out of multiple bootcamps, I'd avoid General Assembly like the plague.
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10-31-2018 , 05:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomfooleryU
Definitely wait, there's plenty of prep work you can be doing in the interim to make sure you kick ass once you actually start, and the ROI on being top 10-20% of the bootcamp class is well worth it. Also as someone that went through one in the early days and then has seen resumes/worked with/interviewed people out of multiple bootcamps, I'd avoid General Assembly like the plague.
Thank you!
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10-31-2018 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomfooleryU
Definitely wait, there's plenty of prep work you can be doing in the interim to make sure you kick ass once you actually start, and the ROI on being top 10-20% of the bootcamp class is well worth it. Also as someone that went through one in the early days and then has seen resumes/worked with/interviewed people out of multiple bootcamps, I'd avoid General Assembly like the plague.
Yeah this is solid. The boot camps are great for a lot of reasons but its not like you cant learn a **** ton on YouTube or Coursera.

Stanford, MIT, and Harvard all have great intro programs on YouTube.

Khan Academy is good too.
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10-31-2018 , 07:37 PM
I was in a similar spot and I finished undergrad then basically went straight to law school. I still don't know if it was the best thing to do but it was a great buffer for me to get reacquainted with the "real" world and relearn some life skills that I neglected during my poker/trading years.

I tried playing poker on the side but it just wasn't viable for me psychologically. I couldn't stay focused long enough to play my A game consistently (sometimes it's something as simple as having less data in my HEM for new "regs" than I was used to analyzing) I was accustomed to and that both decreased my hourly and increased my bankroll requirements. It got to a point where I resolved to just quit poker altogether and focus on trading, which was much more scalable and basically coding for what I was doing. Oh, I cruised through school and made it a point to make non-poker "normal" friends.

You're in a weird spot where your risk tolerance actually isn't that high because 1.2 million isn't enough to retire on.

I don't know what school you're at/went to. But if it's at least a respectable state college, I actually do suggest going back and see what employment options (skill development and networking opportunities) are open to you. This will dramatically decrease your life risk and improve your ability to do just about everything else people are suggesting in this thread, including starting a new business.

Last edited by grizy; 10-31-2018 at 07:46 PM.
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11-01-2018 , 10:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
I was in a similar spot and I finished undergrad then basically went straight to law school. I still don't know if it was the best thing to do but it was a great buffer for me to get reacquainted with the "real" world and relearn some life skills that I neglected during my poker/trading years.

I tried playing poker on the side but it just wasn't viable for me psychologically. I couldn't stay focused long enough to play my A game consistently (sometimes it's something as simple as having less data in my HEM for new "regs" than I was used to analyzing) I was accustomed to and that both decreased my hourly and increased my bankroll requirements. It got to a point where I resolved to just quit poker altogether and focus on trading, which was much more scalable and basically coding for what I was doing. Oh, I cruised through school and made it a point to make non-poker "normal" friends.

You're in a weird spot where your risk tolerance actually isn't that high because 1.2 million isn't enough to retire on.

I don't know what school you're at/went to. But if it's at least a respectable state college, I actually do suggest going back and see what employment options (skill development and networking opportunities) are open to you. This will dramatically decrease your life risk and improve your ability to do just about everything else people are suggesting in this thread, including starting a new business.
It is absolutely enough to retire on if:
-you are in your 30s
-you take care of the capital and grow it

...no amount of money is enough to retire on if you are an idiot with it. And I agree, it is not enough to retire on if you just draw down living expenses from it. But in my city, you could pay cash for four four families. Live in one unit and cash flow like $10k / month. You can totally live on $10k / month...

And that is like a simple / stupid / conservative play.

I certainly wouldn't rest on my laurels @ $1.2M in my 30s, but you could totally retire in the sense that you could be come a pretty passive investor and be well off.

**** you could buy the four four families, live in none of them, cash flow $10k / month (or even $5k / month) and live on a beach somewhere for the next 50 years...
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11-01-2018 , 12:07 PM
I will concede 1.2 million, with a conservative investment and relatively modest style, is enough to retire on.

Re: OP
OP, it's actually a GOOD thing you left school as early as you did. You have the option to transfer or just restart school and get in normal recruiting cycles. I resumed as a super senior and that really limited my job search options through the school (default pipeline for most jobs in banking/consulting/engineering was summer after junior/sophomore with a return full time offer).

A lot of people in the thread are pushing you to bootcamps. I know they are popular, useful, and many people have gotten jobs with them. But the feeder pipelines to good tech jobs are still primarily in universities where even second-rate coders end up with good jobs. Of course you could spend a year on bootcamps before going back to get your undergrad degree as a ringer and get straight As in comp sci classes and coast to cushy jobs in tech.

There are a LOT of people on 2p2 (some in the law school thread) that went through what you're experiencing right now and a lot of us have done a lot of research and made our own decisions and tradeoffs. I can 100% say there isn't a one size fits all solution. Just search and you'll find a lot of threads, a lot of them pretty much right after black friday.

I know one kid that went religious on me (not any established religion... just some kind of self-enlightenment where he thinks his conscience is his own god thing) and spends almost all of his time volunteering and only plays ~3 months a year to make his living expenses.

Some people went in PE through pure hustling.

Many ended up in trading, basically by passing the IQ exams that prop shops call interviews.

Some are in biglaw.

Investment banking

Medical sales.

Own businesses.

Now I think about it, nobody in real estate, at least as primary way of investment.
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11-01-2018 , 05:44 PM
I'll throw in my 2c

Not in tech but living in SF, the impression I get is that bootcamp coders are treated as a bit of a joke. They had their place 5-15 years ago when there's was a giant gap to be filled. It's still a viable path but you're not getting into the desirable positions or doing the interesting work.

IMO prop trading is a very good path for former poker players. Better upside, limited downside, get to do something extremely competitive, great work/life balance. You'll probably work with people who are already more similar to yourself.
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11-01-2018 , 06:32 PM
Not in tech either, my impression of bootcamps, would appreciate any criticism:

10 years ago recruiters were trying to fill ($commission) tons of openings and there was a shortage of candidates. Looking at other resumes a lot of people were not that far from being passable devs. Take an electrical engineer (or someone with a similar background) that is already a few degrees away from being a dev and create a bootcamp to polish up their resume to what the recruiter knows hiring firms want to see (github, some fluency in whatever areas).

This worked fine initially since the pool of candidates was already 'hard' (background in engineering type of field, work experience in SF tech, etc) and demand was heavy. Naturally the schools expanded and to fill the classrooms de-based this more and more until some would take almost anyone that could pay. I imagine most people recommend (the schools included) leaving dev camp *off* your resume.

It is going to take a few years to become a dev that can contribute in any meaningful way, so the hiring company needs to have resources to shepherd you through this time until you start to pay off for them. Many won't. The leaves dev camp as a something that works mostly for those who would never need it.

If you don't have the initiative and ability to see what is out there, get excited about what a company is doing and show that to them. Then it is going to be hard to get a job worth having, camp connections or not.

None of this is from real life experience, so take it as you will.
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11-01-2018 , 07:33 PM
I think you have some cool opportunities. My unsolicited advice that differs a little from what your hearing a lot of would be to really think hard about what you want and like to do instead of just what immediately makes the most money. Sitting on 1.2 million gives a tremendous amount of options to follow possibly rewarding careers some people avoid because of money issues. Could teach high school and travel all summer or work for a non-profit in a field your excited about. On the other hand you could go into a traditionally higher paying field and only work part time. You have tons of money in the bank, so if you spend wisely you really can do whatever you want with your life and be fine financially.
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11-02-2018 , 09:22 AM
my experience: quit poker two years ago after 9 years as a pro (more money though/less pressure to earn, which might be relevant for what i'm about to write). like most succesful pros i def also like problem solving/am analytical

i get that this is BFI but you guys are all weirdly focused on making money asap

you just had a 10 year stretch of constantly self-motivated money making. take a break! try stuff you've always want to do. travel. hike. learn how to dance. read. whatever! you don't need to have a new 5 year plan in place before you quit poker

first year after I quit I
- travelled a ton
- hung out a lot with friends/family, which showed me actively suppressing your emotions professionally for 40 hours each week for years has an impact (who knew!), that it might be wise to undo by seeing more people. i def got more emotionally & socially capable over the two last years (it's not like I was terrible before or anything, but i def was, you know, an online poker player )
- learned how to cook a decent meal
- took a dancing class (spectacular failure)
- tried a blog, which was very fun but hard to keep going, showed me that at least at this time i'm not into poker-style 100% only-self-imposed structure
- took a couple of random intro classes online. looked into coding. now I know it's def a good fit for me and also not something I don't want to do at this time
(note: this lifestyle cost me less money than the meeting up with poker players a lot and spending a lot lifestyle. travel for example is surprisingly cheap if you let go of poker player standards)

after a year of that I got bored, was looking for some more structure in my life and decided to take 3 philosophy classes at university just as an experiment. I loved them, and am now (one year later) getting the degree. The structure is good for me, I love the subject, my class/general uni environment is full of interesting people etc. Very happy with my choice atm so, please don't only consider the $ implications of uni

I guess what I'm trying to say is: you got yourself into a great spot financially (literally top 1% world!), congrats. You don't have to rush head first into making an already great financial situation even better. What's the point? Take some time of. Experiment. Try out things without them being immediately productive. Don't buy a place with 3 tenants which is going to be a source of regular annoyance just to go from top 0.57% wealth to top 0.47%.

You're 29 with 1.2mil and a somewhat narrow past 10 years of life (apologies if I'm assuming here, it was true for me though and I'd say most poker players). Go widen that, and then you'll be 31 with 1.05mil. Still an amazing spot to be in.

I get that this is not good advice for everyone, but figured the thread could use this perspective

PS: I wouldn't keep playing poker while doing something else on the side. Just go for it, break the golden chains.

(edit: +100 to post above me)
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