Quote:
Originally Posted by juan valdez
the best way to beat a crash is to not get your face ripped off on the way down and then buy when everyone is certain that the zombie apocalypse is next
And so how do you determine what that point is? Unless you're using some vague, unquantifiable measure of the publics emotional attitude towards the market there's no clearer signal of people thinking the zombie apocalypse is coming than changes in price.
In that respect,when the market drops 10% from it's 30 day high, would your prediction be that the following 30 days will show a greater than 8% annualized return? You can back test that pretty easily and I would guess that there wouldn't be a significant relationship. If you've done the work feel free to prove me wrong though.
Quote:
1. A few months before. The uncertainty will weigh a little already and if a bad choice is winning it will drag.
2. Not caring vs ****ting themselves.
If a not-market-friendly candidate is doing well closer to the election, sell calls.
Why would the not-market-friendly candidates likelihood of success not be priced in a few months before? It's pretty widely studied. I'd expect even leading up to the primaries you'd get a very minor downward pressure from something like Bernie pulling ahead in the polls.
You can sit there with your finger on the buy button while refreshing the political pollster sites to be the first to act on the news but Id have to imagine after even one day has passed it's virtually as likely that people will have overvalued the info as it is that they've undervalued it.