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March 2013 Trading Thread March 2013 Trading Thread

03-11-2013 , 11:04 AM
Rotating money into ZNGA $3.81. Smaller position size because it swings pretty crazy and I have to keep a wide stop.

25%AAPL 15% ZNGA 13% CELG
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 11:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
Rotating money into ZNGA $3.81. Smaller position size because it swings pretty crazy and I have to keep a wide stop.

25%AAPL 15% ZNGA 13% CELG
Also stopped out of Kors, added a full zynga position at 3.85. Notice that 3.67 was my level (50% fib line from the 5.25 high to the 2.09 bottom) and it opened right at 3.67 and took off for a very solid breakout.
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 11:29 AM
Question for supporters of TA only:

How do you guys feel about buying breakouts when the market is already extended? My only real concern about ZNGA here is the SPX and Nasdaq are due for a pullback.
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 11:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
Question for supporters of TA only:

How do you guys feel about buying breakouts when the market is already extended? My only real concern about ZNGA here is the SPX and Nasdaq are due for a pullback.
I'm not a TA supporter but I think it's noteworthy that znga isn't really correlated to anything nor is it in any indexes.

I'm not sure though you should probably check.
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 11:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
Question for supporters of TA only:

How do you guys feel about buying breakouts when the market is already extended? My only real concern about ZNGA here is the SPX and Nasdaq are due for a pullback.
Was thinking the same. Don't these volatile speculative stocks take the worst of it when the market pulls back?
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 11:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
Question for supporters of TA only:

How do you guys feel about buying breakouts when the market is already extended? My only real concern about ZNGA here is the SPX and Nasdaq are due for a pullback.
Just because a market is overbought does not mean it cannot become more overbought.

However, the SPX really needs to confirm it is not making a triple top here otherwise the risk is for a 20% correction from 1550 to 1200 which is a 50% retracement of the move since 2009.

March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 11:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
Question for supporters of TA only:

How do you guys feel about buying breakouts when the market is already extended? My only real concern about ZNGA here is the SPX and Nasdaq are due for a pullback.
I agree all the indexes are very extended. Having said that, I usually don't care what the indexes are doing when going long something, I just play the chart of the stock. However, if the indexes are all at a bottom and I'm considering a short, I would have to be really, really confident with a tight stop.
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 12:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
Question for supporters of TA only:

How do you guys feel about buying breakouts when the market is already extended? My only real concern about ZNGA here is the SPX and Nasdaq are due for a pullback.
i thought you held znga as well, i thought all of us held it for some reason , except the kid who sold at 3.43 , but he got in on a lower price .

with that being said , got back into bcor @ 15.65 (10%)
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 03:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
Question for supporters of TA only:

How do you guys feel about buying breakouts when the market is already extended? My only real concern about ZNGA here is the SPX and Nasdaq are due for a pullback.
This thinking has prevented from jumping on some good breakouts lately. Open comes to mind.
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 03:39 PM
bbry jumped 13% so far today
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 04:06 PM
Got out of AMX at breakeven. It popped friday. I moved my stop and it got hit today.

Bought Rovi at 21.08 with a wide stop at 17.15. Will scale in if it goes lower. Had it on watch list for like a week/week and a half thought it was going to break out but couldn't pull the trigger. Well it broke out lol and then had follow thru. Looks like there is a lot of space to the upside so I bought with a plan to scale in lower.

Bought CY at 10.99 stop 9.7.

Bought MCP. Kind of a gamble with the earnings coming up on 3/15.

Bought Apple March 22 450 calls for 4.6.

The market is overextended and I'm mostly short and getting slammed the last couple of weeks so I don't mind holding these longs just in case it keeps creeping up or has a stupid parabolic move up.
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 04:13 PM
what news did AAPL come out with to make it jump up so high mid day?
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 04:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by djevans
what news did AAPL come out with to make it jump up so high mid day?
i believe fingerprint sensor and mobile wallet capabilities according to chinese manufactures
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 06:42 PM
bcor came out w/ some confusing news today. announced pretty large convertible without an acquisition (so maybe this presents opportunity).

i fully expect an acquisition announced within the next two months (most likely ~$200MM with upwards of $275MM price tag)

valuation still looks highly compelling and I assigned a pretty large discount to cash & NOLs when I reviewed. Currently have a model for it (for interviews if needed). Considering adding sub $15.
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by highstakesfan
Going out on a limb ......

we will have a down day sometime this week

I know that's hard to believe ....

Strike 1

whoever said the stock market does not go up in a straight line, has been wrong so far this year.
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 08:28 PM
AMED is probably going to report terrible guidance tomorrow. Im short at close going into earnings.

85% of their revenue comes from medicare. They have thin margins to begin. Due to sequestration, 2% of all medicare reimbursments are being cut, effectively taking away 2% of revs from their bottom line. Their competitor LHCG group, reported last week and had to give bad guidance due to sequestration. Seems like super easy trade to me.
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 08:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
Question for supporters of TA only:

How do you guys feel about buying breakouts when the market is already extended? My only real concern about ZNGA here is the SPX and Nasdaq are due for a pullback.
Thanks to everyone who responded to this question:

JB: It doesn't correlate very highly, but any stock is capable of selling off when market goes down. ZNGA is def not completely market proof...momentum not withstanding.

Rafiki: Depends on the stock. ZNGA has accumulation going for it right now, which is why I elected for a buy high..sell higher (aka breakout) trade. That said, I would of preferred the buy signal on this trade to have come after a pullback.

Biceps: Most def about markets ability stay extended. I'd still would of preferred a shallow pullback to buy. RE tripple top: Everyone and their mother is watching that top. In my experience levels like that get manipulated a lot.

Beach: I remember you sharing that a while back. I prefer to time my buys with the market. A change I've made to my trading plan recently is I've reduced the amount of market trigger sells I have. I'm keeping some, but I've had too many.

Myrna: Was just watching prior to today.

Berya: I hear ya, same for me in January. Some extended markets work better for trading breakouts than others. One of the things I look at in trying to figure out market direction, is observing how many breakouts in the market are following though. Right now it's a mixed bag.
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 09:07 PM
SPX continued it's slow grind higher today. Our current range remains $1525-$1576. We are starting to come across tome tougher prices here. There are plenty of little resistance levels between here and $1564. Possible tough climb ahead.

AAPL: Finally broke through the 10day. Volume was there today. If you look at a 5 minute or a 30 min chart the stock looks pretty good. $441-$446 is our next resistance area. $420 is still the critical line that needs to hold.

ZNGA: Stock popped another 3% after I entered the trade. Doesn't mean much except it gives me some extra cushion in the trade. Volume was perfect all day. It behaved exactly how you'd want a break out to do. Stock can really go either way tomorrow. Based on momentum I'd say there is a better chance it follows through to the upside.

CELG: Pushing for $112 now. I continue to freeroll on this one.

I will not be buying anything tomorrow. There a few situations where I could sell, but it would take big moves.

25% AAPL, 15% ZNGA 12.5% CELG

Last edited by savant111; 03-11-2013 at 09:18 PM.
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 10:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
AMED is probably going to report terrible guidance tomorrow. Im short at close going into earnings.

85% of their revenue comes from medicare. They have thin margins to begin. Due to sequestration, 2% of all medicare reimbursments are being cut, effectively taking away 2% of revs from their bottom line. Their competitor LHCG group, reported last week and had to give bad guidance due to sequestration. Seems like super easy trade to me.
GL ahnuld. Any idea why it popped today? Short covering b4 earnings maybe?
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-11-2013 , 11:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
SPX continued it's slow grind higher today. Our current range remains $1525-$1576. We are starting to come across tome tougher prices here. There are plenty of little resistance levels between here and $1564. Possible tough climb ahead.

AAPL: Finally broke through the 10day. Volume was there today. If you look at a 5 minute or a 30 min chart the stock looks pretty good. $441-$446 is our next resistance area. $420 is still the critical line that needs to hold.

ZNGA: Stock popped another 3% after I entered the trade. Doesn't mean much except it gives me some extra cushion in the trade. Volume was perfect all day. It behaved exactly how you'd want a break out to do. Stock can really go either way tomorrow. Based on momentum I'd say there is a better chance it follows through to the upside.

CELG: Pushing for $112 now. I continue to freeroll on this one.

I will not be buying anything tomorrow. There a few situations where I could sell, but it would take big moves.

25% AAPL, 15% ZNGA 12.5% CELG
Spx will almost for sure test and break new highs imo , and most likely give a lt buy signal as it breaks out of shoulders. I think its right after that the market will selloff.
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-12-2013 , 01:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by djevans
what news did AAPL come out with to make it jump up so high mid day?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jb514
i believe fingerprint sensor and mobile wallet capabilities according to chinese manufactures
Oh. Was looking for info on that if anyone knows how to get news like that...

Also, if the mobile wallet was also an online wallet, I think it could be a big hit. It would almost certainly mean goodbye to paypal, from a consumer standpoint that site is terrible (very difficult to withdraw/deposit).
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-12-2013 , 01:56 AM
WFC looks like a cup and handle. hit a 52 week high today. good buy tomorrow?
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-12-2013 , 02:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by homeboy604
WFC looks like a cup and handle. hit a 52 week high today. good buy tomorrow?
I agree it looks really good. I personally wouldn't be buying any financials until the market pullbacks. It's not that the market rally can not continue, or course it can, but I think risk is high buying a major bank at S&P 1556.

If the market goes back down to the 10day, 1531, or 1525 and WFC still looks good that is the place to see if there is a WFC long trade to be made..
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-12-2013 , 06:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by djevans
what news did AAPL come out with to make it jump up so high mid day?
Dividend rumour.
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote
03-12-2013 , 10:26 AM
Not quite sure how to trade it, but AAPL implied vol seems pretty rich to me compared to other tech stocks.
March 2013 Trading Thread Quote

      
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