Quote:
Even if this deal works out your making a -EV business move.
Bad decision back out NOW.
I don't think this is a justified means of assessing whether I'm making a -EV decision. If I have a best friend that chooses to take a % of my action at the poker tables (assuming I even sold it to him to begin with) and all he knew was that I was a winning player over all the years I'd played, had lots of money, and that he trusted me to not be screwing him over, I don't think that makes his decision automatically -EV to buy a % and I think it would actually be +EV.
I also wasn't blindly trusting him, I was making my decision based on everything I know of him as family member, all his previous successes, the actual deal he's involved in currently, his character as a person, the location/market, his justification and rationale for doing this deal, etc and my gut is telling me that it's +EV. Even though I could obviously end up losing money I feel good about it. Since it's an investment that I can afford to lose it doesn't even have to have much in the way of implied odds for it to be +EV. There seems to be a lot to be gained with his projected 30% returns annually as well as receiving my principal back w/ 7% interest, with really only my $150k to be lost, which I can deal with.
Based on what MasterLJ was saying, the main way to lose money on this deal would be if the hotel wasn't performing well and it's value decreased as a result of that in which case my family member would foreclose and explore other options. But the decision of whether or not this is +EV seems more so to rely on the management put in place for the hotel as well as the market/location of the hotel, rather than me trusting him.