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Yes.
This scenario doesn't come up too often with homes and what not, but it comes up quite a bit with Commercial RE. If you build a $10M strip mall and can only lease out 50% then there's a big chance that the price is going to be significantly under $10M if you went to sell. The value is related to the cap rate which is related to the success of the business. In the case of a strip mall it's only successful if leased out nearly completely at prices that make it pencil. In the case of your hotel it's similar... but you get the jist it's all related to revenue stream and hardly to the building and/or cost of materials to make the building.
I also wonder why on earth a man with a 100M+ net worth would a) get into a $3M deal at all, and b) come up with this strange (IMO) financing strategy. $3M is only 3% of his net worth at most. Why not just build the hotel and hire out management? I'm not saying it fishy or anything, I just don't understand this man's motivation to do a deal this small.
This is actually one of the things I was wondering as well that I never got around to asking. Maybe it's possible that I'm overestimating his networth? I just know he owns a bunch of sick houses, his own plane/jet, lots of commercial real estate, lots of businesses etc... and he's told me about previous deals he's done that generated $1B+ for investors that he was involved in. He also told me that his new goal that he's working towards is becoming a billionaire so I figured all those things made it seem likely that he was at least 10% of the way there although I could be wrong I guess? I'm going to try to find this out too though.
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Just for reference... I worked on a shopping center a few years back and it was the opposite. It was leased so fast that its $6M construction gained value quickly... and after 6 months it was easily valued between $10-$12M. It's unfortunate that my company was only doing fee development on the project, but it was basically a grand slam.
I see, this is an example of the kinds of things I had hoped would be brought to my attention when making this thread so I'm glad you bring it up. I'm going to research this some on my own and talk to him as well to see what he says. I do know though that if he's expecting 30% annual returns that he is certainly expecting it to be successful but that still wouldn't account for him mentioning one of the main risks was in constructing a hotel that could be valued at $3m. Maybe I misunderstood his strategy for that... I'll try to find out. What you're saying makes a lot of sense. Even if this is a risk though I think he's very confident it's a great location/market though to build the hotel which was his primary reason of course for choosing it. The plan isn't just one hotel though, he's planned out building at least 10 hotels if that matters any.
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what city/country is the hotel in? that is probably the biggest factor to determine if it's a good investment
Based on a lot of the things we talked about I am pretty sure this is a prime reason for his investment to begin with and his expected returns.
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Also, 7% interest on a note secured by commercial RE plus 60% of equity is a sick good deal if the management has any proven skill at all.
Yeah, the guys that are getting 40% are the ones with the expertise in that aspect of it and they don't make any money at all unless the hotel is operating at a profit since he gets back all his money first before anyone gets anything. I would assume this gives them a high motivation to do well.
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My instincts are screaming that this guy is not 100% what he appears to be.
Well, as far as the things I've seen personally with my own eyes, I've seen his houses, some of his commercial real estate, his plane, pictures of him with Obama and other world figures, etc. So I can't know 100% but he's family and I certainly trust him. Doesn't guarantee anything but it feels +EV and I could stomach the loss as a worst case scenario.
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I also second whoever pointed out how hotels (and any other commercial RE) are valued. you want to look at the past performance to determine value. What makes building large commercial RE projects so risky is that unless things go as planned, you are screwed. The building wouldn't be worth much of anything if you can't use it to generate any money.
One thing I recall him mentioning was that if the hotel weren't operating profitably he would then have to foreclose and explore other options such as turning it into an apartment building or something instead.
Last edited by NewbieInvestor; 05-09-2009 at 04:22 PM.