I don't know much about stocks and never ever try to time the market, but sold my entire 3 year portfolio today for this reason. Even if it's priced in currently, I feel that the upside is nonexistent (biggg rally) and the downsides could be massive in the next few months, they have to taper eventually and obv chose their words very very carefully regarding it taking place at SOME POINT in the near future... so choosing to go cash for a while.

And actually, IMO this release isn't NEARLY as scary as subsequent announcements from the fed which I believe have to come eventually in the next few mo...

Myrna...any thoughts of buying puts on MSFT now instead of waiting for earnings? They're announcing a restructure tomorrow but they've popped a bit and are coming up near 35 which is as high as the market wants to value them right now.

We're also coming up to Bernanke later today and IDC's quarterly PC numbers some time in the few couple of days, and rumors are they might not be pretty. For a high stock going into earnings...I could see a bit of irrational panic selling/profit taking.

I'm a huge bull on MSFT, think there's a lot more valuation upside than downside, but if things come up short there'll be a serious correction.

im going to leave nugt alone, see if it will have a big sell off. 4.65ish area.
greedy but going for it.

i think its gonna trade sideways a bunch but i think there will be a move down and dont wanna miss it.

I'm doubt there is anything new being announced today. I still don't think we will close green though.

Is the point of shorting NUGT over just owning DUST related to the decay? Trying to figure out what the advantage is of one over the other. I guess it's way easier to pick an entry for NUGT, DUST's spread can be pretty swingy.

Thanks, if I had more time I'd short individual stocks. I barely have enough time to keep up with my long watch list.

CAT is a overbought here, the big volume move yesterday was before the China numbers, and I felt strong today will be sideways or down for both the stock and the market. I'm took the trade because I wanted some downside protection.

Would you mind sharing why you don't like the pick? Is it yesterday's high volume move?

I said that last FOMC and he surprised. The question is if that was accidental, or if he's deliberately trying to pop the asset bubble but not too hard. I'm in the camp that nothing he said was accidental.

Bought 100 MSFT August 17 $32 puts @ 26c
Bought 200 MSFT August 17 $30 puts @ 8c

Main reason is that I've got major MSFT longs I need to protect against a market downswing and bad news, plus a market hedge. MSFT price is high, could miss earnings and the tech sector is looking a bit iffy, so it won't be hard for a decent drop. Plan is to also buy cheap 500 cheap 2 day calls 50c out of the money the day before earnings.

I wasn't looking at it specifically, but I'll give you my opinion as more of a day trader as opposed a money manager, which is what a lot of guys here seem to be emulating. I wouldn't really be thinking about trying to hedge myself in the sense of just shorting because I feel like there is downside risk. I would try to put the same effort into picking individual stocks long and short. So if I was net long and I thought there was downside risk today, I would try to find some good shorts, but if I couldn't I'd just be net long. It's so easy to be -ev in the market that's it's often better to take the risk than to pay a -ev hedge. My point would be, try not to justify so so trades because you're trying to hedge long/short risk.

I don't think it was accidental either. i dont think we are in a bubble as much as the QE infinity rally was creating a bubble. Bernake (who I think is awesome) recognized this and let some air out.

Last month he gave a timeframe for both taper and removal of QE. I doubt that changes today, given we're largely in line with forecasts. Yields may rise, market may sell off, but I don't think the message is going to change.

Thanks for the perspective. It makes sense what you are saying.

I def didn't put the work into CAT I do my typical long pick.

I know I keep mentioning it like beating a drum, but if any of you smart TA guys can figure out how to day trade CYTK, you'll make a killing. Thing is -4% pre-market, it's now +3% and climbing. That kind of volatility is a dream for you chart guys isn't it?

Depends on the trader imo. Volatility is a double edge sword.

June 12th-17th it would be interesting to me technically. Here technically it's extended and wild (Risky combo). Gun to my head, I'd trade it long, but would actually need fundamental conviction to be willing to find a spot

Going to be away from computer for a few hours. Have a stop on CAT at break even so essentially free rolling here. I have a limit order on CHK just in case my profit target hits. I'll update before the close.

yeah ive been following nugt bc more volume, but i dont know any differences in choosing one or the other. im not saying there is no difference, im saying i dont know. if someone else does they should say.

Added more IVV (now 9.65% of portfolio).

here we go, 30 minutes until minutes come out and gld is selling off.

well im out at .90. shoulda put the stop much lower but wanted to give myself leeway incase it shot down. whatever im moving on.

Ok so do we wanna talk about the minutes?

To me with this, and a basic look at the rest of the world, I don't see why we can't get to S&P 1680 and maybe tickle 1700.

They essentially gave people the green light to keep buying here through the summer and early fall, correct?

This nails it on twitter IMO:

"The implication of these minutes is that Bernanke doesn't command much of a majority to keep buying bonds until the middle of next year."

That said, the whole point of his actions the last couple of months is to decouple investor sentiment from QE, wean people off psychologically and let the markets run on their own, so that when the actual taper comes it's not a market crasher. I think he's succeeding.

Damn got stopped out of CAT while I was out at break even. Running lower now of course. (I don't have a schedule conducive to day trading which is another reason I don't do much of it).

CHK profit target did trigger at $21.65 for a 2.51% gain.

Now down 4.37% YTD.

25% SH 15% FB

i took 4 cents slippage. these mother ****ers. on a stock that was 5.00. im tilted. so much for liquidity advantage over dust.

What does that mean? You were short this, so you made money right?

yes but limit cover got filled 4 cents higher when things started getting crazy. didnt realize until now. 1% less profit.

My watch list for pharma type stuff now that my lips have been wet:

DVAX, TSRX, CTYK, CTYX, TRNX, RNN

Dont plan to ever own much, plan to own several at a time to reduce some of the variance, and don't plan on holding any of them very long.

As an aside, Im faced with the first time I've ever had no idea when to sell an increasing stock, because these bio ones really give you very little indication of fair valuations. Nice problem to have, position isn't really big enough to sell some keep some. I seem to be an expert at selling too soon overall, so the temptation is to hold in spite of greed, not really because of greed.

I'll give a nod for TSRX, too. SRPT is starting to climb and I urge you to look into QCOR (might wait for it to dip a little).