July 2013 Trading Thread - Page 6 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

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July 2013 Trading Thread

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07-08-2013 , 10:57 AM

#126

Upupdowndown

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 254

Link to tWeet??

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07-08-2013 , 11:01 AM

#127

Truthsayer

banned

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 2,251

Hasn't been confirmed enough. Guessing it was just the rumor mill doing its thing.

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07-08-2013 , 12:31 PM

#128

Truthsayer

banned

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 2,251

Quote:

Originally Posted by rafiki

Aaaand there goes CYTK. That was free money for anyone who wanted it. Talk about people buying up the sale price.

edit: ok short lived. Back on sale

Nice work on CYTK.

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07-08-2013 , 12:35 PM

#129

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,003

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truthsayer

Nice work on CYTK.

The dip was caused by news of a drug that doesn't even matter for them. It's like Apple announcing they're having issues with the nano or something.

Biotech is fun, really sad I didn't watch longer before my first dip in. Would have been a bit more used to the variance. It's like Omaha!

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07-08-2013 , 01:50 PM

#130

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Bought 10 $15 Jan 15 SLV puts @ $1.39 because I am a degen and I like to stare at silver prices every day.

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07-08-2013 , 01:51 PM

#131

RedEyedTroll

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 562

Quote:

Originally Posted by rafiki

I follow the biotech sector. It can definitely be swingy like PLO. However, if you pick winners well, you can make a solid return.

I mostly ride the upward momentum towards a binary event (i.e., an FDA decision) then bail before the event. Sure, I will miss out on some huge gains. However, I will avoid the deep plunges.

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07-08-2013 , 02:25 PM

#132

Truthsayer

banned

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 2,251

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mori****a System

Bought 10 $15 Jan 15 SLV puts @ $1.39 because I am a degen and I like to stare at silver prices every day.

Any particular reason? I don't know if anyone else knows what they're talking about, I'm pretty much just bull****ting in the silver thread.

I don't imagine the floor is much below $11 given historical prices and inflation, and probably closer to $13 given rising industrial demand.

If it's just degen then thumbs up.

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07-08-2013 , 02:26 PM

#133

ship---this

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 3,283

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedEyedTroll

However, if you pick winners well, you can make a solid return.

I understand your point, but is there a sector this strategy doesn't work in?

Bio's best be left to those who really know wtf they are doing.

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07-08-2013 , 02:36 PM

#134

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truthsayer

80% degen, 20% this: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...8&postcount=16 but yeah, mostly degen since I don't really know how +EV or -EV the move is.

0.7% of my portfolio is now short silver just for my amusement.

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07-08-2013 , 04:12 PM

#135

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,410

Sold KRE for a 9.4% gain. Doubled position in IVV at 164.80.

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07-08-2013 , 04:29 PM

#136

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,003

holy **** CYTK started down over 11%, closed up almost 5%. What a SWING

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07-08-2013 , 04:34 PM

#137

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Dumping my SPY and ARMH puts for a loss.

I'm fairly convinced that I am -EV in options trading and short term trading from experimenting with 3% of my portfolio. Nevertheless, it's a good learning experience and maybe that will change in the future.

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07-08-2013 , 04:54 PM

#138

cky23k

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 348

Quote:

Originally Posted by cky23k

Sold XCO @ $8.15 for 5.5% gain.

Now I'm banking on my WNR and EIX calls to get ITM. Probably going to enter a short on Monday, running my scans now.

Current Positions:

Long WNR @ $29.10 and Long $31 Sept. Calls @ $2.00 and Long $30 Sept. Calls @ $0.89
Long EIX @ $46.21 and Long a bunch of Oct. $50 Calls Avg $0.70
Long GMT @ $49.00

Forgot I also collected a $0.05 dividend on EIX making it a 6.2% realized gain, along with dividends of $0.31 on GMT and $0.34 on EIX.

Filled short on CELG @ $123.01.

Current Positions:

Long WNR @ $29.10 and Long $31 Sept. Calls @ $2.00 and Long $30 Sept. Calls @ $0.89
Long EIX @ $46.21 and Long a bunch of Oct. $50 Calls Avg $0.70
Long GMT @ $49.00
Short CELG @ $123.01

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07-08-2013 , 04:57 PM

#139

MyrnaFTW

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 7,555

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mori****a System

I think you are approaching derivatives wrong. i can remember at least two occasions when we had the same position and you got in and out at the wrong time. crm and fb. i had the same positions and got out coerectly. you have to consider options as a pot commited move . you have to be willing to lose your capital on an option play . trading in and out will kill you , as you will get whipsawed and suffer slippage on the bid/ask price (unless its spy etc etc) .

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07-08-2013 , 04:58 PM

#140

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,003

Anyone trading SCTY? Can't help but think I should start looking closer at it, but wondering if I've missed the best of it already or not.

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07-08-2013 , 05:13 PM

#141

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,003

Anyone wanna start talking about some earnings we should be looking to make a play on?

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07-08-2013 , 05:17 PM

#142

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW

I think you are right; my exit timing is rather dreadful. I think I should treat it more as if I'm pot committed, instead of selling immediately after my expected event or stop loss plays out. I'll have to keep that in mind.

This is why I like to set aside ~3% of my portfolio to experiment with alternate strategies; maybe I get to learn something besides just doing longballs on value stocks with catalysts.

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07-08-2013 , 05:22 PM

#143

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by rafiki

Anyone wanna start talking about some earnings we should be looking to make a play on?

I think we should all figure out how to make money off of DNB. Each of their earnings reports seem to result in yet another short squeeze as everyone waits for the inevitable implosion, but who knows what the next report will bring.

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07-08-2013 , 05:47 PM

#144

matt892

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 10

National Bank of Greece is up around 25% last two trading days.

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07-08-2013 , 06:02 PM

#145

jb514

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 2,837

Quote:

Originally Posted by rafiki

Anyone trading SCTY? Can't help but think I should start looking closer at it, but wondering if I've missed the best of it already or not.

I've been looking at. I've been think about betting against solar, 3d printing and tsla as of lately. I had some luck betting against unxl and I'm hoping to continue the trend. IMO the market has historically overpriced companies working on technology that has yet to be implemented/ few people understand. Unipixel was a good example, no one really knew what the company was doing or how it was going to be monetized but the stock still got bought up.

Thinking about long dated super ootm puts on SCTY, DDD, and TSLA.

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07-08-2013 , 06:26 PM

#146

ra33it

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 158

Quote:

Originally Posted by jb514

It seems that TSLA has gone way too far way too fast and has to come down at some point. Earnings are 7/24 I believe. They are expected to have massive improvement, however you'd think it was already built into the price. People are so emotionally positive on this stock, I want to put the $&#^ out of it but am afraid Ill get burned. Maybe long term ootm is the way to go...I don't know.

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07-08-2013 , 06:41 PM

#147

Upupdowndown

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 254

I'm looking at msft and wfc long leading up to earnings. There was q wire transfer error for me so won't be able to trade until noon tomorrow earliest. Wire went on friday but bc of holiday guy didnt approve the account until monday. Sigh. Wfc the most, undervalued as is and one of few sectors that will benefit from higher interest rates.

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07-08-2013 , 06:54 PM

#148

Upupdowndown

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 254

And shorting tsla right now is horrible IMO. Listen we all know LinkedIn/netflix etc will crash one day, but who says its tomorrow. There is no reason to assume people sell now anymore than people keep buying. In other words you should have more of a plan for now than just overpriced and suddenly the rally will end. Its a reverse falling knife.
Better analogy: are you shorting appl at 600 or once it reaches 700. Most knew it would have to ease up at some point (although down to 400 is another story story). One catches all the move and is a hero. The other is stopped out somewhere in that 12% loss.

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07-08-2013 , 07:14 PM

#149

jb514

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 2,837

Quote:

Originally Posted by Upupdowndown

I'd buy far out puts, but not that it's not all that different from shorting. But with puts I'm not sweating near as much when this thing hits $160.

Fundamentally this is fairly different compared to lnkd, nflx and especially aapl. Apple was fundamentally really strong when it was in the 600s. We haven't really seen much from TSLA other than some old technology being implemented and it just about quadrupled in the past year.

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07-08-2013 , 07:22 PM

#150

Upupdowndown

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 254

Yeah appl was just an analogy. But IMO tsla offers way more of a product than lnkd. Introducing a great product to the masses IMO is way stronger than fundamentally trying to rip out profits from social media that really doesn't have anything to do intrinsically with profit (besides data mining). Tsla just needs to keep selling and getting more exposure and their product is inherently something they make $ from. P/e will be at 10 way before lnkd is at 100 at current prices IMO.

Last edited by Upupdowndown; 07-08-2013 at 07:29 PM.

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