http://www.forbes.com/sites/halahtou...rtner=yahootix

This sent visa down 6% and MasterCard down on good earnings.
Banks are way up and I believe it's because of this. It doesn't seem like that big if a deal to me. Anyone familiar with this?

He has blown up funds before and his arrogance will blow this one up. Dude hasn't sold a share yet, and the sharks, only the best in the game Soros, Ichan, Loeb et. al., are literally going to run this thing to the moon knowing that they will break his fund and reap the rewards. He won't sell, and hasn't even covered one share yet, because he is such an arrogant dick suck that he won't untie his ego from this trade. Those guys know that and they will just wait until he sends the money from his fund to theirs.

Can he even cover with the amount of outstanding shares available? I guess he could hedge with options...

Bought a small (3.4%) position in SAFM.

I don't want to touch any basic materials stocks right now or in the next 10 years most likely. Too much competition from emerging markets.

I don't like TSCO. Everyone and their brother is watching it. Wish I would have liked it 10 years ago. ;(

Went with SAFM... More of a direct play.

well, had a bad feeling about grmn , should have gone with my gut . building my big option position i have been planning on ANF.

10 ANF August 55 puts @ 5.5 (love my fill on it)
9 ANF August 52.5 puts @ 3.44

Butchered the REGI sale by selling @ 2.75. Oh well, still 50% gain, and I've been long @ 5.30 for the stock so I am not complaining

Sold ANGI puts @ 4.40 as I realize I was luckboxing there.

that is why i hate those deep out the money , illiquid options.

the stock has gone down 1.50 the past 3 days , and you only got back 40 cents on it . if the stock would have gone up 1.5 , you would have lost much more than 40 cents.

good job on regi though.

Lol JCP now also off 10%.....

Poor guy.

Moved my stop on this to 4.21 (originally had it at 3.98). Only risking 1/3 now.

Finished July at +7.4%

I'll post some stats later. Starting to feel sorry for ackman, I hope he has a plan for hlf

Is anyone planning on playing LNKD going into earnings?

Last quarter that had surprise profits by 45% and the stock tanked more than 10%

Thinking about buying some puts going into earnings. Does anyone have any thoughts?

I bought a 1-contract straddle last LNKD earnings. If I hadn't bought the shares at a great price after hours to protect the straddle it would have been a $500 loser (if I flattened out the day after earnings), instead of a $200 winner. The options are so expensive.

July was a +1% month for me, I don't know how since I lost like 10k on SDS this month. I am hanging in there to sell some of it on a pullback. Hopefully it comes in August, although seasonally I would have to wait until Sept/Oct. Sometimes things happen sooner or later than we expect.

Very nice. I ended up +2.4% (both realized and unrealized).

Since I think it is most valuable to think about positions I got out of (correctly and incorrectly) instead of focusing on just my realized wins/losses:

RWX is down 2.4% since I sold it. Yay!

PCY is down 11.7% since I sold it. Yay!

VEU is up 4.57% since I sold it. Boo!

VEA is break even since I bought it (multiple buys). Would be up if I had taken a larger initial position instead of spreading out the buys. Meh.

PZC is down 1.9% (including dividend) since I sold it for a decent gain. Wee tiny yay!

KRE is up 2.49% since I sold it. Boo!

PBD is down 0.5% since I bought it. It is a longer term play.

RNWK is up 1.7% since I bought it. Yay!

SAMF is down 0.2% since I bought it today.

AGNC is down 2.6% since I sold it. Yay?!? (not sure if I should have gotten out)

VTI did good this month. Didn't make any moves there, so nothing to brag or cry about.

I'm break even on PBD which I just bought.

IVV, IJR and IJH up 3.5%, 2.3% and 0.7% since I bought over the last 2 months. Meh, since these were to make up for selling VEU.

Nice job Brian and JB.

I liked Brian's idea trade review, so I decided to do it also, hopefully others will follow suit. I don't think what the stock did after I sold is a very good measure of Correct vs Incorrect trade, so I'll be doing it differently.

Also in case any one doesn't know, I don't report unrealized gains/losses when I report numbers to you guys.

Finished the month up a little better than 1.5%. Sadly, it was my best month of 2013, However, I consider it a very positive month with think a lot to build on for me.

Technically, July behaved very similar to January. If you guys recall...back in January I was posting about waiting for "the big short opportunity", initiating a few shorts, and staying away from long trades. If you guys recall I said at the time the price action was something I did not have a lot of experience with and would do better the next time.

This time around I saw the same situation, post breakout, held some positions longer, and rather than look short when my first wave of long trades ended, I added a second wave of longs, which kept me on the right side of the market, and made me a few extra bucks. Also, I held more positions than I did in January and held them a bit longer. All of this is growth and progress as a trader to me.

Trades:

SH: Took a decent loss here. Most of it was incurred in June. I still think it was a smart hedge. I carried it a bit past the "soft stop" I had on it looking for a better exit. I don't regret the decision it just didn't work out.

KORS 1: I was holding half of a position from June into the month. I found my self in a spot during the month where I had to choose between selling this and CHK.

I decided to sell KORS over CHK (even though KORS was a better trade), because CHK looked like it had room to pop and KORS was approaching overbought status. This was my best move of the quarter imo. Took a nice profit here.

CHK 1: My worst entry of the month. It was a panic buy as I wanted something post jobs report. Hot market bailed me out though, and I did nice job managing it post buy, selling KORS instead of it when I wanted to lighten up, dumping CHK for a nice gain, than getting a good spot to buy it back lower.

FB: Bad entry, same panic buying as CHK, though this was closer to setting up for a pop. Again market bailed me out and I would of wound up buying it the following Monday.

Obviously missing the earnings report was the decision that could of made this a whole different review, but I thought about It a lot and it was the smart move for me given what I knew at the time.

What I learned from FB, is how hard it can be to find an entry post earnings. Part of my rationale for selling was if a good report brought it above 29.00, I can rebuy for an easy trade to $32.50. To my surprise the thing opened above $32.50 and never gave me a good entry before running well past a buy point. I'll factor in the possibility of getting priced out, when making earnings based decisions in the future.

PRLB: I saw the market about to break out, saw PRLB basing, and took the entry. I'd take it 100% of the time in the same spot. Unfortunately it did not break out with the market. Instead it gave a false breakdown. I sold the false breakdown (knowing it was probably a head fake), because It was in my plan to sell on a close below xx.xx. So I just dumped it. At the end of the day it's very important for me to follow the game plan I lay out the night before, that where I ultimately think I'll have an edge.

KORS 2: Still in progress. Did A nice job holding it through a downgrade (this is another thing I would of never done back in January).

CHK 2: Bought it back lower, this time at a proper buy point and it hit my profit target. Well traded/Well executed.

CAT short: Rare day trade, rare stock short (though I do want to experiment with individual stock shorts a bit in the coming months). Day trading is tough for me. I spend too much time watching the monitor and away from my day job. It's not worth it. I'm not putting in a rule against it, but will only do it in rare spots. The play broke even (I gave up some gains I probably didn't need too though...due to inexperience).

PETM: This was an experimental trade for me. I wasn't confident at the time, but I liked this trade a lot and now think it was a good entry. I bought it of a reversal following a false breakdown. This is a play I'm going to add to my arsenal. It like going to level 3 in poker vs the algos. The market didn't pop as I hoped or I would of definitely hit my profit target.

WOR: Here I was looking for a breakout in the stock. The entry was bad though. I should buying this thing flat or up, I bought it on a down open below the 10 day..in a spot that I think effected it's EV. If the market would of popped, this would of worked, but it stayed flat and I was lucky to get out with a small gain.

Reading over my logs from my automated trading and I noticed one little change kept me out of a couple of the best trades this month. So ****ing frustrating I would have had 50% more profit this month

I had a real good month , real good % return . got real lucky with some of my earnings plays , and actually could have done better if i listened to my gut more.

as for LNKD . i got burned on it before, i want to.. it probably is the pro move.. I dont get its business model though. I have heard headhunters say its changing business models. so i am most likely staying away.

I'm leaving out most of the niceties and focusing on where I think you could do better. I put in an encouraging number in there at some point.

Sells are trades too. A penny saved is a penny earned and a penny not gained is a penny lost. I'm far less results oriented than my persona here, but tracking positions that you are out of is a nice exercise.

My results are stock/dividend gains (realized and unrealized) divided by my total investible net worth. No big deal if people track their results differently. I do it my way because it keeps me from thinking I am more clever than I am and it keeps me from not realizing a loss that I should realize.

That is over 19% annualized for the month. Very good.

You are learning. I'm not against shorting to hedge your long bets, as long as you understand that you are fighting inflation and companies that are trying (and usually successful in) be(ing) profitable. Market shorts are right eventually though.

It is cheaper (and less risky) in the long run to just have a decent sized cash position that you can employ after a significant drop. You won't have much to post about though.

I think you have been over-hedged here. Eventually the shorts will be right. Most of them will be poor before they are right, given history.

I think you have to let this run or give up on it. It will be driven by revenues and earnings. You are giving up too much of the upside by getting out.

Hindsight, but overbought is not a problem in a directional market.

You did that one well, imo. Risky play, but well executed.

I suggest that you just continue to trade into earnings. You are taking on most of the market risk in between earnings seasons and by sitting out earnings season you are not letting your view of the underlying companies benefit you.

This is one I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole between earnings seasons. Between earnings it is just going to be an effective triple times SPY bet.

I ignore up/down-grades except on momentum trades where the upgrades coincide with momentum or where there is a new problem/risk that will slam things for a while and people who have been waiting for a dip to buy are delaying the correct sized drop (see news on potash and subsequent price action of POT - it is a piece of **** basic material stock now). If I got the upgrades before everyone else did, my answer would change.

Well done. Note that this would not have worked if we were in a down market.

I'd avoid attempting day trading if I were you. You have a day job.

One thing I have noticed that I wanted to bring up is that you are rarely buying late in the day. A lot of the moves that could be countered recently have happened late and gaps have made any morning moves very difficult.

With your background in psych, you should have some ability to predict how people will react upon sleeping on the news prior to you sleeping on it.

"would have" not "would of"

See above. Oh, and take into account how major players will be motivated in addition to the emotional traders. Markets start crashing and you think the Fed isn't above adding "we are now going to start buying corporate bonds" to their mix instead of tapering?

I'd consider this a possible hold forever stock (I just don't like their basic materials side of the business, but that is a hedge!). It is also on an uptrend, so I think that there isn't much value in worrying about the 10 day unless you just want to own it for a week or two.

Meant to congradulate Brian on the AGNC trade.

Was really thinking the right move was to see how it faired through this week, with potential macro economic data forthcoming....

Still a good buy most likely through the end of the year taking the huge dividend into account.

Buy & Hold > perma-bear traders

hope you fully retired by now and living your best life.. no more bosses or work for you.


but yeah,, buy and hold was the play.


congrats