Good job, well done.

Also sold some of my spxs i had. Covered blackberry @ 9.59 avg. Sold the puts as well.

Thanks Truth, that cleared up a lot of things for me. It was your post in the zynga thread that got me thinking about option strategies. im officially inspired and determined to learn more about it now.

Not a tech guy by any means (so obv discount the following), just felt like throwing out some questions.

What if Intel's x86 architecture is in a secular devaluation mode (with icore platforms seeing less market share each release)? What if this (possible) decline allow ARMH to increase their royalty rates as their Cortex-A gains market share? What if ARMH takes server market share?

Also their is possible talk of Intel doing foundry business with ARMH.

PC Mag

I was thinking this as well. Not willing to do anything about it though other than buy if it happens. I like when everyone else freaks out about some wee little countries that are about 0.3% of the world GDP like Portugal and Egypt, but don't like it so much if it is China driving the move.

Needs to be a big move down at the end of the day to make it worth my while...

kimoser22, what you're posting is why people have bought and buy and recommend the stock. There's a decent bull case. They're all wrong though IMO.

Going to need to do a separate thread on Intel/ARMH and go into detail and answer these questions. There are some major moves coming here affecting lots of stocks tied to tech and I think there's lot of money to be made if you can call this correctly. I also think the outcome is quite clear, at least in terms of where it will drive the stock.

This guy (a former Intel engineer) sums up my thinking quite well. The comments are where you see how the thinking on this plays out on both sides. How this will affect ARM stock over the next year through catalysts/news is another matter and I think the thesis plays out strongly there as well as a short. The TSMC yield failure/delay downside alone is non trivial and will tank ARM very fast in a series of news and delays, enough to have a +EV short without anything else.

I'm not following the market here. I posted my original thesis at $50 before the Samsung Galaxy Tab switch to Intel plunged the stock 25% (this happened sooner than I thought it would) and have shorted twice for a couple of hundred percent profit each time (although the latest upgrade will likely hurt the third short I'm in). I think this has a long way down to play out yet. The market appears not to understand this space - news of Silvermont's performance profile did nothing to the stock, yet the entirely predictable switch by Samsung (if very early) dropped it a huge amount. Both very irrational moves.

Nice sale guys...I would have given 2:1 at least that the market was going to go down today going into a holiday with potentially Euro crisis #2 going down in Portugal, Middle East unrest driving up oil, China economic issues and every single worldwide market red on this news. God bless American optimism.

Thanks man.


Rafiki: Down 5% is better than 6.5% I was down at mid May. Obviously, I still have a long way to climb, and 8 weeks of trading doesn't mean anything, but it certainly feels better than getting my ass handed to me repeatedly .

I've done okay positioning myself the last 8 weeks. 5 of my last 6 trades have been scalp sized wins (With 1 scalp size loss), which is fine in a correction, and at least gives me a few extra bucks to try and build with.

Holding 30% KORS/70% cash all the way down to $54 was the one exception where I was really caught with too much risk on the table. Got lucky there.

Edit: Thanks Truth. ADP looked pretty good. Unemployment claims good for 2nd straight week too. Balancing Portugal yields and Egypt turmoil

Bought a small amount of S for a medium-long term play at 7.10, for the 70% buyout conversion at 7.65 that should happen in the next year.

Grabbed some more AIG shares for the lulz when I saw the graph starting to go straight up. Executed @ 44.4399

You cant put any weight on the move today. I actually use it as a contra indicator.

Yeah I agree, going to take a bunch of 50c OOTM each side. Could move a dollar in a couple of days. I actually think the conference call will be robust and drive upside. Microsoft believes they will sell 25 million Surfaces this coming financial year which is ~$10 billion extra in revenue and a few billion extra in profit at least. Whether they will I don't know, but it's a major new revenue stream and pretty bullish. They're also pushing Surface through their extensive enterprise channels next generation. Combined with major cloud growth, business growth, server and tools growth, Oracle partnership, Windows Phone growth, lots of other areas, I can't see how negative sentiment could follow earnings unless they miss, which they rarely do.

Their headline P/E will also come down to around 11-12 as last year's $6 billion acquisition write down falls off the ttm. The current numbers don't reflect the company's value.

Given Egypt news tonight. I going to lay off CHK even though I still like it and pursue a possible trade in OCN that may set up if Friday leads us higher. If that doesn't work out I may add to KORS on a pop.

Should we break below SPX 1597 I think we could see a sharp sell off. I'd probably put the SPXU trade back on in that scenario for a 1-2 day trade.

If we remain in this holding pattern, I'll stand pat. Enjoy the day off everybody.

25% SH 15% KORS

Kind of sad reading the BBRY Bulls on stocktwits. All fairly convinced it's going back to $12-$13 pretty soon. Am I a huge fish, or isn't $7-$8 a far more likely reality for this company now?

The news isn't as terrible as everyone is making out. Blackberry have stopped the decline in handset usage, even if sales disappointed. Revenue went up. They have plenty of book value. New models that have the familiar Blackberry keyboard have just come out and haven't made it into figures yet (only the touch screem). Management made it a lot worse by how they presented the figures and how they've decided to stop reporting numbers, an aggressive act against their shareholders which only increases uncertainty and fear.

Having said that (this is what the bulls would be saying) I think the average investor will struggle hard to find upside in this thing and won't find a reason to buy. A miss on every metric + management acting shady + tons of downgrades + no real story any more keeps people fearful and out of the stock IMO. The upside story before was that Blackberry had been long delayed in the new handset/operating system, reviews were positive and it could do a turnaround. The greed around the potential surprise upside of that was big and drove the premium. What's the story now? That story + they bombed on their first four months + they're not even going to report subscriber numbers any more, and I don't see how it goes back to where it was or anywhere near where it was in the near term.

I got the likelihood of BBRY's upside wrong even if I got the trade right so take everything I say with a grain of salt.

I think you got it. Especially the keyboard part. I have a blackberry still (stupid IT department "forgot" to order my iphone), and the big reason to have it is the keyboard. Can't see what they were thinking coming out with a model that doesn't have one.

It is going to all depend on their performance going forward, which you are going to get word on once every 3 months!

I wouldn't want to be short the markets right now. Captain mega dove today out of Europe:


- Council had extensive discussion about interest rate cut.
- Council injects a downward bias into interest rates for the foreseeable future based on the three variables of inflation, the economy and monetary dynamics.
- "The decision was unanimous, that's also quite important."
- "Liquidity will remain ample."
- Our exit from highly accommodative monetary policy "is very distant."
- "50 bps is not the lower bound."
- "Key ECB interest rates include the rate on the deposit facility."

Gonna be a booming few days now

Got out of STRA @ $50.40 for a small gain to free up capital to buy more WNR calls. Bought the $30 Sept. calls @ $0.89

Europe had a huge day - I doubt that they extend. Asia looking to follow their lead after a pleasant day yesterday. US futures looking very healthy for tomorrow's open.

You should get the Bloomberg app for your phone. Mostly delayed data, but nice to glance at outside of your trading hours.

The results-oriented part of me is not overly happy with lightening up on VEU (assuming it does what it should do tomorrow), but I still think it was correct from a risk/reward standpoint (I think VEU is good on value and not good on momentum). Any constructive criticism would be appreciated.

PZC and PCY I think are still good on risk/reward, but I really want to dump them because they keep giving me diarrhea. I think I should be lightening up on RWX, but not sure...

VTI 17.52%
VEU 16.03%
RWX 7.52%
PZC 9.95%
PCY 3.23%
IVV 2.94%
VEA 2.40%
KRE 4.94%
Cash 35.49%

Or, ~25% long USA (very overweight regional banks), ~26% long internationals (very overweight REITs and slightly underweight emerging markets), ~13% long bonds (municipal and emerging market) and ~35% cash.

Again, criticism welcome.

Nice data this morning. PZC, PCY and (possibly) RWX are not going to make me happy today...

Funds to my new acct are mid transfer so dunno if it will clear today. But given the Samsung miss and bbry miss is expect apply will move up+good market+ recent upgrade. Theres my freebie for the day even though I cant trade it. Thoughts?

Will try to look at ur picks later today Brian, fwiw.

Stupid smartphone. I expect Apple to go up.

have to adjust plans. yields going to spike today so I'm going to back off OCN and place a bid on CHK instead this morning.

They already have. 10 yr at 2.69%...

Samsung miss is bad news for Apple (affirms long held fears of slowdown in high end smartphone market). Samsung is the best selling smartphone on all US carriers for the first time recently, so a slowdown in sales is not good news for Apple.

But there's a lot of positive sentiment with iWatch patents, supposedly leaked pictures of low cost iPhone, strong upgrades, etc, so who knows where this goes. I bought a small number of calls a few days ago on the basis of this because I think together they will send it higher, but the Samsung miss takes the shine off that for me.