Overall 20 K in the stock market for one year is extreme risky.
Maybee a discount product on an index is relative save and bring you 2-5 %.

Apple is one big bubble in my opinion, sure a bubble can get bigger and bigger but i am invested in there competition.

Someone really believe that Microsoft complete miss the mobile devices...they will invest alot to bring windows phone and othert software for mobile devices
to an success...and i would not bet that apple win that " war " its more likely
that Nokia recover with Microsofts support.

And if you look to asia you see brandnew quad core phones without a real brand name but great performance that are sold for 300$. Apple will struggle over the time with there high prices.....i am sure that you can buy apple stocks for 3-400 within the next 3 years.

By the way i never was an apple fan

Why?

This thread is awesome. OP reminds me of the young me, fresh with new poker money.

I doubt anything we can say will change his mind.

The guy that claimed that he knew how the future profits of apple were priced into the current market value is just a complete troll and please don't look at that and think its a solid reason to move into apple.

There is currently absolutely no reason to assume that whatever product they've announced already isn't priced into the market value. If you know of some hidden product/service noone else knows about they you have the right to say something about it, all else is priced in (basic finance law).

Innovative Tech is an extremely volatile market, we don't know if Apple is not just the current but also the next big thing. What we do know is that Apple is a big player and everyone thinks its gonna skyrocket (this thread is proof of this again), this makes it alot less likely that it will colapse on a shorter timeframe (like a year), but guarentees in the stock market last till the door.

The guy a couple posts above me that described these cheap quad core phones on the asian market is a perfect example of this, I didn't know about this and also have no verification about his statement but its typological for the tech market.

But if you just have 20k to play with then by all means go for it, however the point of this thread is also kinda irrelevant if you already knew you were gonna do it anyway and won't listen to the finance experts here.

you really think you have an edge in this game?

Yes I do. The market is not efficient can be very irrational at times

i understand that, just reading your posts it feels like u have no edge but allot of gamble. i could be wrong doesn't matter GL anyways

And if "young you" invested in AAPL ...

Apples market cap is 627b right now.

They have 117b on hand.

They are trading at a PE of 15.72.

In order to understand why Apple is undervalued, you have to have a deep understanding of the tech sector and consumer lock-in. All the apps, music, and movies you are purchasing through the iOS ecosystem give you huge incentives to stay in apples walled garden.

In addition, Apple has about what, 5% of the PC market? I see tons of room for growth there.

In addition, Android and Windows Phone will not be upsetting the iPhone. It will require the "next big thing" to unseat it (which I will admit, could be Googles project glass who knows).

this is an example of one of the list of questions someone else asked op, about which he had no idea.

you lol at windows 8 but like the guy pointed out later about the quad core no-name asian phones...

it's a consumer behavior question. do you guys know enough people who are willing to pay apple's premium? and how many of them buy every apple device? because I've got to think there's a finite number of people willing to pay apple's premium for the next cool thing. speaking of which op, did you know apple is involved in a trial right now that will determine whether other companies will be copying their product designs? i'm not the one to ask, because keeping up with the joneses is absolutely not my thing. and i'm not paying 30% more when I can get a similar look for 30% less. and frankly imo the iphone interface is a pita. but anyway...

op, it's real simple. would you take 8 flips for 2.5K apiece with your 22 vs my AK? if so, then proceed.

this is true, yet this thread is about the stock that is most likely in the world to be efficiently valued. like, you can have an edge in the market, but this is THE ABSOLUTE WORST pick you could have made.

I'm sure some savvy investors are exploiting it. That's why they are shareholders. It isn't priced in to the shares though. They have a fairly modest PE (~16) based solely on iPhone/iPad/Mac sales.


A P/E of 16 is all you need to know. Unless the market assumes current products are going to be worth a lot less in a few years, there is no other explanation.

Industry average PE is 14.4 according to Yahoo Finance. They have only a very slight premium to that.

Then you look at a companies like:

Amazon, PE 296
Facebook, PE 67
Microsoft, PE 15

The market seems to think both Amazon and Facebook are going to have insane earnings in the future relatively to what they currently have. Everybody knows and has known for a decade that Microsoft isn't and nobody expects it to.

The market prices AAPL the same it does MSFT.

Guessing as to how much money they could make in the future with a monopoly of the PC market or the TV market or anything else is about as pointless as trying to guess how much money Facebook will make in 10 years. It's all conjecture.

But the market does it anyway with some stocks and not others. There is no reason FB and AMZN should have huge premiums for future potential while AAPL does not.

Nothing can ever be guaranteed with certainty. And if you read my entire post you would see that I listed this as a significant risk factor. And I've done it again below.

No, I'm not. I told him not to buy shares with my first post. I also said at the end of the post you quoted that the market is not going to change the way they value AAPL so the value wont be realized unless these things are actually hits and they maintain current trajectory.

That's a big risk and for that reason I personally am not a shareholder. However, that doesn't mean the market isn't a ****** when it comes to this stock, it is.

Apple is not efficiently valued in the market most of the time. It swings wildly day to day on nothing more than rumors. Analysts have had a horrible time trying to predict the way the company will perform and I have no faith in their ability to predict future quarters correctly. How are they close to the most efficiently valued when they have been so wrong in the past?

Define 'swings wildly'?

Their PE has been relatively constant for several years. I think you are being misled by the stock moving by $10 or $20 and thinking that is a lot. It isn't when the stock is worth $600+.

The times where the stock has surged by 50%, 100% or more is tied directly to increases in earnings and revenue. That isn't swinging wildly, it happens to every company.

So why are millions of people including many rich and smart ones selling (or at least not buying) at 670?

10 or 20 bucks huh?

AAPL
52 - Week Range 354.24 - 674.88

it has had some significant up and down movement since April

10-20 point swings on 350-600 dollar stock is not out of the ordinary , especially
if its a news/earnings related movement.

i think you misunderstood him.

Same reason Warren Buffet stays out of the tech sector. They dont understand it.

Yea from 354 to 674 in a straight line up..lol

His EV of this "investment" or whatever you want to call it is absolutely higher than a MM account. He said this is disposable income. Which means he should be "ok" with having 16k in a year. If we look at all the possibilities and weight them, then ofc his EV is higher than the .01% that his MM is.

If AAPL is $670, that does not mean that it is expected to be $670 in a year. Obviously, it's expected to be higher. Sure, he is taking a huge risk, but it seems pretty clear that he is OK with that.

Also, the lol point about the contrarians itt is that theoretically the riskier this is, the higher the EV is. All comes back to how he will feel if in a year if his 20k is 12k or 16k. He and everyone knows that a MM is obviously the safer choice. He is not putting everything he has in this.

Please name one stock in the history of the World where this was not the case.

I'm not saying your conclusion is wrong but if this is a pretty ridiculous way to get there.

why don't you actually try and make an EV function for the opportunity cost of his MM and this stock.

seriously, try it.

that goes for anybody, i'm curious as to how you are coming up with these projections.

At the moment you get a brand new noname phone with
S4 Pro APQ8064-Chip and Adreno 320-GPU in China for under 300$.

I guess that the next Iphone, Samsung, Nokia will have the same combination
its really faster than the Samsung SIII.

How much Premium will people pay ? In the developed PC market apple is at 5% market share..on the mobile devices they was first and a winner, but will it work in a few years when the market is developed and not new ?

I am not in the US and friends that love apple are still glad with there Iphone 4S and not interested to switch to 5 and the majority look for value not for a hype..alone 3 of them bought the "OLD" Samsung S II and an cheap SIM.

And the " fantasy " apple iTV...we will see ..it might work in the USA but at least here with douzends of " free " channels i have doubts

He didn't make a conclusion.

Refer to Sklansky's fundamental theorem of investing. You need the
reasons why others are taking the other side.

@trolling