Quote:
Originally Posted by wil318466
This is a bigger hurdle than you make it out to be. It's essentially torture.
Point taken. I somewhat have that sense but don't have direct knowledge of it.
But here's some comparison I was thinking about or imagining. Suppose a person has grown out of their immaturity, recklessness, irresponsibility etc. And they are highly committed and motivated. A bit more realistic scenario than a parent as hostage might be having a severely disabled child, with insurance coverage expiring in a few years. So you need a million a year starting in a few years. And, you don't have any extraordinary abilities beyond an unshakeable commitment to showing up on time and working until you drop. Where can that commitment lead you to a big payday? Or put another way, what percentage of the population can achieve success in a field mainly through determination?
Professional sports? For a random person, determination is worth essentially zero. Several orders of magnitude less than 1% of the population can make it no matter how much they want it or how hard they try.
Sciences? (Forget for a moment that they don't have huge money). I believe math is the hardest. I think the numbers are very similar to those for sports. Way less than 1% regardless of determination could make professor in a top 10 department. Similar thing for chess or classical musician.
Now what about medicine? Let's say specialized surgeon. Here I think we're starting to look at more than 1% of the population that could get there if they work hard. Probably over 10%.
Skip to investment banking. Assuming the highest motivation (which is a big assumption of course and is what keeps the field so small), I think you're talking about probably more than 25%. Not sure how high I'd go on that. Probably not over 50%.
How about starting a tech company? (Or any company?) Here there are so many factors inside and outside of the person. The quality of the idea. The ability to run the business. The ability to market the idea. And the luck of having everything line up with demand. I think we're back to less than 1% of the population (maybe instead of "population" I should be more specific and say percent of graduates from a top 100 college/university. Okay, that's a gigantic shift to slip in at the end. I don't know how high in the general population you would rank the abilities of the average student at say the #65 college. But to be fair, I've almost always been surrounded by that college educated population. )
The thought experiment is a bit non-sensical because it's not clear what it means to take a 75th or 50th percentile say 24 year old and give them 98th percentile motivation. It's kind of oxymoronic.
Edit: So I'd break down the original question into two parts: 1. What are fields that offer large remuneration with some regularity? 2. Which of those fields don't require winning the genetic lottery or just life's lottery, for success?
Last edited by mosta; 07-14-2016 at 04:31 PM.