Still have HGG on my watch list and noticed it finally broke back into the 10s and hit 10.50 earlier before pulling back.

Whoever bought that dip a month or two ago is looking a nice return so far.

Rough earnings today...

Typical pump and dump. Hedge Fund makes terrible buy, is down a lot of money, and then all of the sudden they come with presentations about why YOU should buy it...haha. They were trying to get bailed out. Their thesis was lame, and now everybody who got sucked in has huge losses, too. You know that misery loves company, so now everyone can hold hands and shout how much of a good deal it is now. Fascinating scam.

Poker players are the worst investors in world history. I see some of the numbers these guys throw around in trying to value a business, and it is laughable. Most all of the stories of poker players and investing end in a laughable thud. It is as if they don't even know a thing about investing theory, mispriced assets, or anything else.

A deteriorating business at the height of the stock market bubble is a great deal. Yeah, right. Sometimes people need to lose a lot of money in order to figure out that they have no clue what they are doing. So, in a way, this is a good thing for all who wasted their money on this dog. Education isn't free, so hopefully you can take this expensive lesson and improve in the future. You guys can do it. I know you can do it. Think positive. Learn to think for yourself and you will be better off.

Are you somehow claiming Jason posted this to scam the 2p2 community? He's one of the nicest and smartest people I've met. You are way out of line insinuating he was employing some kind of pump and dump scheme on his position.

Well, he admitted that his hedge fund got drilled after buying at a higher price. He posted this after they had suffered huge losses. So, if they really liked it and didn't want you guys and others to bail them out, then it would have been the smart move for them to load up at the lower prices, and not have to pay a higher price because they convinced others to buy.

If I had money invested in a hedge fund I surely wouldn't want them to give away their research for free if they still planned on buying. It wasn't a traditional pump and dump of a scam company, but it was a pump, then a likely DUMP of unwanted shares.

They either unloaded on you suckers at higher prices or they suffered more horrific losses on their ill-conceived idea. Either way, you are all in the same boat now, sitting on losses on a dumb investment. The world is fair that way. Almost all of the time I see a poker player throw numbers around like they are talking about the laws of physics, it usually ends badly. Lots of assumptions were made about a crap business, a crap management team, and crap this and that. Yes, it was an ugly dump.

Classic wishful and delusional thinking. Of course, now there are even bigger losses.

I will say a few words here about the delusional bs that you just wrote, despite the fact that you will ultimately be too arrogant to sway your fallacy of an opinion that is deeply and naively implanted into your brain.

1. Why do you keep saying you all and etc.? I've entered and exited HGG multiple times on a swing and intraday basis and have profited very nicely from it, in spite of my main trading focus being intraday futures and options.

2. You might not be aware that is illegal for hedge funds to advertise themselves to the public. Why give away research that cost time and money? Because its what all hedge funds do. They are allowed to post their analysis of a particular position and time horizon based on the metrics that they used in discovering the idea. A well formed presentation was shared with the community, to which an investor could choose or not choose to agree with. There was no selling of a product or the idea, nor pumping of the stock so that his fund could dump it. It is also mind blowing that you think a post on a forum would generate such a pump to actually move the price on this more than a few cents. Do you really believe people in this thread piled in millions of dollars or something?

3. They missed on earnings and the stock got sold off today as a result. Would you have made your same ridiculous post had they beat and were instead up 15%? Note: that would be a 30% difference. Where was your post mocking "me" or "us suckers" when we longed it in early June in the mid $8's and sold it a few days later at $10? Or the opportunity anyone in this thread had to have sold it above $11 in early July?

4. "Almost all of the time I see a poker player throw numbers around like they are talking about the laws of physics, it usually ends badly." You do realize that Jason has spent 3-4 years with Morgan Stanley prior to creating his fund and has done very well in this business. His performance there I can tell you after having spoken first hand with everyone at his desk was nothing short of spectacular. Furthermore you are posting in BFI and yet calling everyone poker players. Few of us traders in here are actually poker players anymore and have in fact been quite removed from it for years.

Lastly, you are doing an excellent job at not only making fool of yourself in your miserable attempt at dissing one of the most respected posters here, but he has also likely sustained losses from the position that don't merit people who have no actual understanding of the markets open their beaks the second a result backfires in 1 day on a multi year play.

Well, Doyle Brunson says that he is the worst investor/ businessman ever. Didn't that Brandon Adams blow out millions and cost Bright Trading a lot of money? Another poker player who suckered people into a scam (alluded to people that he has inside info and they all got crushed). I think the company was ELAN. Also, WPTE, World Poker Tour scammed everybody when Doyle and company made the fake bid in 2005 or so for 800 million that was pure scam.

If it isn't a scam, it is idiocy usually. People just have no idea what they are talking about. They throw around numbers, like future assumptions of a certain percentage growth in earnings or revenue, or percentages gained in the future of market share, then they tell you how the weather was bad in the first quarter, but things will pick up later in the year.

It is nonsense and you probably lost a lot of money on this garbage. Tough luck.

What are people's thoughts on this post-earnings annoucement.
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Buying opportunity??

Sell the stock, thesis is broken?

Hold and wait??

I thought the thesis is dependent on the failure of Sears, which is a fairly long term play. Taking heat in the short term shouldn't really matter imo

I'd definitely pick up some HGG if I had free cash currently. By the time I do it will likely be quite a bit higher

Yes, of course. As the market finally pops after 6 years of gains, and this company couldn't make it with the ultimate bailout environment. Fundamentals deteriorating, world economy deteriorating. Yes, for sure the price will be much higher soon. Don't miss the boat. Get up early and load up.

Never seen anything like this in my life. Guy gets high fives for lame presentation that was almost all wishful thinking/guessing about the future. Bases part of his hopes on the "bad weather" first part of the year song that all clueless forecasters have said for months now, including the FED (and they were all wrong about that, as forecasts/reality have been continually adjusted lower and lower). So, that is nothing more than kindergarten analysis, as everyone was singing that same tune for all retailers that did poorly (so there was no advantage in having that genius thought).

The company is crap and it is getting worse and worse. There will be no rebound over $10 in your lifetime ( I will guarantee 24 months of below $10).

I haven't done a ton of research on HGG but here are a couple of things i see:

1. at the current stock price, the company is selling at a 33% discount to tangible assets

2. If you look at their advertising expense, they spent 5.8% of sales on advertising in the most recent quarter. This is really high, I think a long-term advertising rate could be closer to 2%. This move alone would move them from a (3%) OI rate to a +.8% for the quarter. Most recent quarter was bad but there are levers that can be pulled to return to profitability here

3. HGG has stated they are going after the appliances and home categories, the comps in those areas in the most recent quarter was much better, Computing/CE is what dragged the comp way down. They both still declined so that's not great but the long-term story seems ok.

4. My biggest issue with this is the idea that HGG will benefit from the demise of Sears. First, multiple competitors are going after the appliance market big-time. SHOS, BBY, HD, LOW are all pushing hard into this area. BBY has shown good growth in appliances over the last year. SHOS has a large opportunity for growth with their Appliance showroom franchise and part of their plan is to open stores where SHLD big box stores close.

5. I'm also skeptical that the appliances industry will recover along with a housing recovery. Young people are drowning in student loan debt, they can't afford to buy houses lat a young age like previous generations.

At the end of the day, this thing is cheap and i think the most recent results make the story look a lot worse than it actually is. I think its certainly worth a look.

Does anyone have an opinion of HGG management?

I haven't read the call yet, only the release, but the decline in appliance SSS is troubling. They better have a good explanation for that as the declines in electronics are supposed to be offset by the appliances.

This company is a money losing enterprise that is experiencing serious declines in same store sales/revenue year over year. There is no turnaround, as they essentially said so on the call. Everything else is wishful thinking.

The one good thing is the company has zero debt as far as I can see. So, they will likely survive. If the stock market turns, like it looks like it might, then everyone will be feeling the pain, not just the working stiffs who have been broke for 5-6 years. The only people who survived the financial crisis were those who held onto assets and got them inflated by the FED. Pretty soon everyone will realize how bad it is, and if the DOW tanks, like it probably will, retailers like this will get destroyed.

There is practically zero chance it doesn't go to $5 or lower. Too high a market cap right now for a money losing business/charity. This market cap could go to 50 million or less in an economic downturn. That would be just a dollar or two per share. It can happen.

It's been awhile since I've read the report, but I'm pretty sure the forecast for HGG was over the next 18-36 months. So a little early to be calling it.

I don't own any stocks in the DOW30, so I'm good if it crashes. Right?

HGG seems to have EPS estimates lowered every other week. Worst retailer in a ultra competitive market is certainly not something most investors are interested in.

Have any of the herd here noticed the embarrassing low returns of op fund? 2 and 20 is laughable.

jason,

Inventories are up 5% yoy while sales are down 10%. Have you talked to mgmt about this? Seems problematic and could mean very weak results next few quarters as they right size it.

So yeah--we got this wrong. Been extremely disappointing performance from them. Not sure what else to say. Appliances have been a little weaker as an industry, but HGG's results have still been way worse than we expected.

Are you exiting?

Thanks for the reply Jason. Good luck.

toldyeeso, im assuming you are a prior user who got banned. in any case, quit trolling or get perma banned

I actually think toldyeeso is pretty intelligent. Is this bad?