I saw an article claiming that homeopathic medicine works.

The Fed isn't likely to do much of anything about Chinese currency devaluation, but long term rates can rise even if the Fed rate drops.

The US Teasury can go head to head with China devaluation, and that could cause bonds to lose real value.

So the risks are the Fed raising rates and USD losing value? For USD to devalue we would need QE5 and/or lots of rate cuts right?

Dodging the question. Again, regardless what my motivation is, I want to know what happened in the US stock market 100 years ago. Why is the Dow a bad source and what is a better source?

No. I think that you will find that the Fed raising rates did not lead to devaluation in the past. QE1 through 4 didn't lead to devaluation either.

Generally, it seems more correct to believe that when something has not caused something else in the past, it is unlikely to cause it in the future.

explain to us all why that didn't happen in qe1-4 and then we can figure out whether or not that will apply to qe5.

I've no good theories. I simply note that without correlation, there is no causation.

The first 4 times he overdosed, he didn't die. I don't know why he didn't die, but we see that overdosing a 5th time won't kill. Without correlation, there is no causation.

I am pretty sure the Fed isn't taking drugs

I like this method I discovered a while back. Since we are in the days of smartphones, having a calculator app isn't unheard of. It is exact and not an estimate like the rule of 72. You can also choose your multiplier.

log(X) / log(1 + i) = the number of years needed to multiply your money by X.



The math may be elementary to some, but most people I talk to don't really understand logs all that well so I gave an explanation. Have fun.

I just rolled over a few hundred k from an employer 401K into an ira. I’m a lazy investor for my retirement funds and just do a simple split of index funds between domestic/international equities and bonds. Everything is sitting in a money market account right now. Should I hang tight amid recession fears before putting it all back into index funds, or just go ahead?

It depends on whether everything will go up or down. I will let you know what you should do today in five years. Please remind me if I forget.

Lol. Ok I get it. Guess I should put it right back in there along with everything else.

It depends how old you are and whether you need the money in the next 5-10 years. if you dont need it then you can ride out passively.

dont touch bonds unless you are a professional bond investor or economist. do not touch them.

IF I have a friend ask me bout this I'll tell them Fortis all the way. its probably 8% return and its bulletproof in recessions. It is the ONLY stock i am willing to recommend to a friend or family member, because it is proven to be dependable. personally i invest in a lot of tech but i wont recommend any of my picks to a passive investor

You could look at it another way. Would you sell a few hundred k today? If not, why not? Same reasons exist for new money as money already invested. You essentially buy your portfolio every day, but for some reason people are only concerned about new money.

On TSX?

My HSA is all in short term bonds. Has been since I started it because I have a low risk tolerance in this account. It that a correct way to think about my HSA or should my risk tolerance be the same in all accounts?

Should I switch to the inflation protected bond fund given tarriffs, potential new QE, and rate cuts coming?

Everybody's situation is different. If you are young and for the most part healthy, I'd treat it like any other account. I would do broad market stocks. In my HSA there was a vanguard thing that charged a very low fee something like .04%. I allocated 100% there. Basically the lower the fee, the better. .50% is too high.

My HSA allocation mimics a target date fund. I use an FSA for medical expenses and if my healthcare spending were to exceed my FSA funds I'd dip into my savings long before I'd withdraw from the HSA. Reason being the tax treatment for HSAs is so favorable -- more on that here: https://www.madfientist.com/ultimate...ement-account/

If my situation called for potentially dipping into the HSA I'd still have a decent percentage in equities unless I were older. For me a major crash impacting a fraction of my portfolio would be less of a risk than missing out on multiple decades of compound growth.

Recommended books for someone looking to learn day trading and the stock market in general? Thanks!

Meh you should probably have mostly equities with maybe a small % of bonds. Not sure why you wouldn’t want to aggressively invest an hsa? You should not need to money for a long time and even if we go into a recession, you might just lose 30-40% of an account/ you shouldn’t touch either way and will just be buying everything at a deep discount.

If you were say 55-65, I would say you can have a conservative allocation however all bonds seems horrible (gotta have some equities).

Just pay all medical out of pocket/ maintain your health. You can reimburse yourself down the road these expenses if you want or just take money out for medical expenses when retired / take out money at 65 and older and just pay income tax.

Not sure why you wouldn’t want to maximize growth in this type of account. Stocks average what 8% a year and tend to always be up over long runs of time (25-40 years..... this might be a bad statement to make but you aren’t going to lose money and at worst you should average 5% a year if we just had some sort of long run bad economy which is not going to happen).

Hi -
My company was bought out so we're moving to a new Health provider. For the old HSA my employer contributed $500/yr and there were no fees (unless they were hidden somewhere that I don't know about).

The new HSA charges a $2.25 monthly maintenance fee and I think has no employer contributions. Yuck. Should I live with that? Or am I better off signing up for the traditional plan & transferring my old HSA to a non-employer account with Fidelity?

Thanks

It depends on all the other details about the new traditional plan and new high deductible plan, and your specific healthcare usage.

Something to consider is how large the HSA account is. The bigger the amount the less of a concern that $2.25 fee is. For an entire year that is $27. Ouch! Even with $5,000 in your account you are going to be paying 0.54% yearly. I'm going to go out on a limb and say you can find a better deal elsewhere. If you have like $50,000 in your HSA then maybe it would be worth it.

Actually it is even worse than $27 annually, because of compound growth that you didn't receive. Yuck. Fidelity has got to have some better options. I'd switch!

Thx ya that's what I'm thinking. I've only got $8k, silly me didn't contribute until this yr.

Hopefully the traditional plan doesn't suck too bad. Shouldn't the 'buyer outer' have better bennies? Wtf. Well at least I have a job, that was looking hairy for a while. Would be delighted if anyone spent 20mins btw.

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Well, that's convenient, I was just about to ask for recommendations regarding individual HSAs. I've never owned one and am looking to start one up. I haven't done much research yet, but even before looking at this thread I'd been leaning towards opening one with Fidelity. Have read about some shady things involving HSA-specific orgs like them charging "dormancy fees" and the like and I assume they're less trustworthy in general than Fidelity and also probably offer less appealing investment options. Any additional input on this matter would be much appreciated.