Quote:
Originally Posted by bahbahmickey
If vanguard is estimating a 5.2% return on equities over the next 25 years (or more) they deserve to go out of business. Although I highly doubt they made the prediction. Source?
Take a look at side by side returns of the different investment classes over the last 100 years.
I'm not sure why you are shocked that a financial firm would have a team of economists looking at the global financial picture?
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGVEMO.pdf
I don't know about a 25 year projection, but the 10 year projection is centered at 5.2%
"Global equity has rewarded patient investors with a 12.6%
annualized return in the 9½ years since the lows of the
global financial crisis. As part of this strong performance,
valuations are currently much higher. For instance,
valuations in the U.S. and emerging markets appear
stretched relative to our proprietary fair-value benchmark,
thereby making our global equity outlook guarded.
The ten-year outlook for global equities, similar to last
year, is centered in the 4.5%–6.5% range based on our
Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) projections."