GDP now equal to Wilshire 5000 market cap - Page 2 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

What makes you think for sure that stocks are going to become so depressed they are a "screaming buy" before they go back up? The conclusion you are drawing is ******ed.

Gawd it would be funny if people talked to each other like this when they are face to face in real life

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12-16-2008 , 09:21 AM

#28

BadBoyBenny

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,799

There are two other metrics that have had good predictive value for the long term over any period in history. Tobin's Q and the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio. They essentially say the same thing as this Wilshire \ GNP chart does.

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12-17-2008 , 01:24 AM

#29

NajdorfDefense

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Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

It is a relationship that may or may not be correlated in the future. If you wait for the SPX to fall to 6x PE like prior bottoms, or hundreds of banks to fall to 0.1x book like prior downturns, you will likely be dead before you invest.

Other than saying 'Lower prices are better,' I'm not sure such graphs add anything of value whatsoever. It is a good reminder that prices can go lower, if you still need one.

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12-17-2008 , 02:37 AM

#30

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense

Its also relatively trivial to data snoop something that vaguely fits considering the mountains of financial ratios/commodities/etc that are in the world. You can even sprinkle in random multiples to help data snoop graphs.

If only they had real value.

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