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February Trading Thread February Trading Thread

02-02-2012 , 03:13 PM
I'm sad to say that I fell for the PTM PPLT "arbitrage" trade -- down 3% already and bid/offers that you can drive a truck through.. <ctrl> Z
February Trading Thread Quote
02-02-2012 , 07:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dibsy
I'm sad to say that I fell for the PTM PPLT "arbitrage" trade -- down 3% already and bid/offers that you can drive a truck through.. <ctrl> Z
how did you "fall" for it. it's not like the people went to trick u.

the charts of the two are almost perfectly aligned other than temporary spikes. i don't know anything about these two securities but i doubt there is any intended trickery.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-02-2012 , 07:30 PM
made a killing on both Oil and BP today
February Trading Thread Quote
02-02-2012 , 08:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tastychicken
how did you "fall" for it. it's not like the people went to trick u.

the charts of the two are almost perfectly aligned other than temporary spikes. i don't know anything about these two securities but i doubt there is any intended trickery.
Meh, as I posted, the "easy" part of the trade was over by the time those dumbasses posted it. They didn't understand the trade and/or misrepresented it, and people blindly following into an "arb" that wasn't really an arb.

If it's really a good trade, you don't have to try and pump the **** out of it on the internet, and usually when that happens it's because there's something that's either missed or being left out.

In the end it'll prob work out, but considering the cost to borrow and current shortage of shares to borrow combined with a lot of silly retail people being way outta the money on their shorts, and the volume drying up, makes it such a meh trade. All my opinion ofc, and as the spread widens up due to people being called in it gets better. But saying that this ETN is the same thing as PPLT an etf is just laughable.

Last edited by Jeffmet3; 02-02-2012 at 08:43 PM.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-02-2012 , 08:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
Bought Titn b4 the close at 24.43

It dipped to support levels today and can keep a real tight stop
Positive construction numbers came out today
Tsco reports at the close. Prob a good qtr, prob good for Titn who sells a lot of tractors
Nice rev growth
Crushed the last qtr
Still relatively cheap at 13pe
I like Titn too, good recommendation.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-02-2012 , 09:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cts
anyone own (i don't) or look at FLL?
I noticed Lee Iacocca is on the BoD. They've had insider buying recently. Don't own any. Have you been to any of their casinos?

PENN reported today - down 3%. I bought some back when it was in the low 20s, but sold out too soon. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....&p=irol-irhome
February Trading Thread Quote
02-02-2012 , 09:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffmet3
In the end it'll prob work out, but considering the cost to borrow and current shortage of shares to borrow combined with a lot of silly retail people being way outta the money on their shorts, and the volume drying up, makes it such a meh trade. All my opinion ofc, and as the spread widens up due to people being called in it gets better. But saying that this ETN is the same thing as PPLT an etf is just laughable.
this might sound stupid but how do I check the cost to borrow? I imagine that I won't need to pay any cost or minimal if I short something as liquid as SPY but just for future reference. ty!!
February Trading Thread Quote
02-02-2012 , 09:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tastychicken
this might sound stupid but how do I check the cost to borrow? I imagine that I won't need to pay any cost or minimal if I short something as liquid as SPY but just for future reference. ty!!
There's no set rate, as it varies broker to broker and is based on relationships and availability.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 12:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dibsy
I'm sad to say that I fell for the PTM PPLT "arbitrage" trade -- down 3% already and bid/offers that you can drive a truck through.. <ctrl> Z
I told you when I was covering after a nice profit.

You guys should really just listen to me more.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 01:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yowserrrs
I told you when I was covering after a nice profit.

You guys should really just listen to me more.
I must've missed your post -- you're one of the few that i scan this forum for thoughts/opinions.. if you're ever in NY will buy you a drink
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 01:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffmet3
Meh, as I posted, the "easy" part of the trade was over by the time those dumbasses posted it. They didn't understand the trade and/or misrepresented it, and people blindly following into an "arb" that wasn't really an arb.

If it's really a good trade, you don't have to try and pump the **** out of it on the internet, and usually when that happens it's because there's something that's either missed or being left out.

In the end it'll prob work out, but considering the cost to borrow and current shortage of shares to borrow combined with a lot of silly retail people being way outta the money on their shorts, and the volume drying up, makes it such a meh trade. All my opinion ofc, and as the spread widens up due to people being called in it gets better. But saying that this ETN is the same thing as PPLT an etf is just laughable.
no hard feelings -- i did my due diligence and think it will work out eventually -- cost of borrow is not really a factor -- more annoyed at the lack of liquidity and bid/offers.. took me 3-4 hours to get my position in.. just not really conducive to a quick realignment..

one is physical platinum the other is a derivative contract with ubs based on 3 month futures.. shorting the 3 month future (esp. vs. UBS) and long the physical is a right way trade as long as he etf really does hold the platinum bars it claims it does..
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 04:48 AM
Anyone have any thoughts on OPST? It's a company I have been following for about 6 months. It is a microcap with 11.2 million in cash with a market cap of 9.3 million. The underlying business looks decent though is very dependent on a few clients. The catch is 60-70% is owned by a trust that isn't distributing the cash. I have called trying to speak with the CEO about the trusts intentions, but he won't return my calls. Until last year they weren't even investing the cash and just letting it pile up.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 08:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cts
anyone own (i don't) or look at FLL?
I looked atr it about a year ago, cant remember why I passed, I think something to do with their reporting was strange or unsustainable or something.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 08:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aba20
Anyone have any thoughts on OPST? It's a company I have been following for about 6 months. It is a microcap with 11.2 million in cash with a market cap of 9.3 million. The underlying business looks decent though is very dependent on a few clients. The catch is 60-70% is owned by a trust that isn't distributing the cash. I have called trying to speak with the CEO about the trusts intentions, but he won't return my calls. Until last year they weren't even investing the cash and just letting it pile up.
call and say you work for a fund
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 08:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ludacris
subscribing.

Thoughts on Amzn after their recent drop?

How many people under 30 don't go to amazon first when they're looking to buy something?
working in a german bank on the trading floor....increasing amount of people walk around with their kindles and seems like everyone is browsing amazon during the day.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 09:33 AM
raaaallyyyy on payrolls
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 01:33 PM
i bought TNGO at 11. do u guys think i should sell b4 the quarterly results in two weeks?
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 01:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffmet3
Meh, as I posted, the "easy" part of the trade was over by the time those dumbasses posted it. They didn't understand the trade and/or misrepresented it, and people blindly following into an "arb" that wasn't really an arb.

If it's really a good trade, you don't have to try and pump the **** out of it on the internet, and usually when that happens it's because there's something that's either missed or being left out.

In the end it'll prob work out, but considering the cost to borrow and current shortage of shares to borrow combined with a lot of silly retail people being way outta the money on their shorts, and the volume drying up, makes it such a meh trade. All my opinion ofc, and as the spread widens up due to people being called in it gets better. But saying that this ETN is the same thing as PPLT an etf is just laughable.
I bought puts on PTM (theoretically over-priced ETN) and bought a corresponding amount of PPLT.

Can you please explain to me why it is a bad trade? Not being defensive in the least - I'm genuinely interested in hearing what you think.

I was long GLD, SLV, and COPX so I didn't mind trading that for the long PPLT. The only way the trade goes bad is if PPLT doesn't go up much and the gap between PPLT and PTM persists.

I only need the spread between them to tighten by 2% in the worst case scenarios (unless I'm bad at math, which is a distinct possibility) to break even. The gap when I traded was about 13.8% and I bought May puts giving it a reasonable time to pull back together.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 03:07 PM
Impressive rally today. Anybody have a good estimate on s&p and Nasdaq ranges? I don't have a good feel for the general market at all right now. I only got into trading last April. This is my first solid bull market. Also are market ranges less important/not important in this "weeeeeeeee" market?
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 03:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aba20
Anyone have any thoughts on OPST? It's a company I have been following for about 6 months. It is a microcap with 11.2 million in cash with a market cap of 9.3 million. The underlying business looks decent though is very dependent on a few clients. The catch is 60-70% is owned by a trust that isn't distributing the cash. I have called trying to speak with the CEO about the trusts intentions, but he won't return my calls. Until last year they weren't even investing the cash and just letting it pile up.
Do they have any debt? If not, have you considered getting a syndicate together to gain control of the company (assuming they don't have a poison pill or shares with super-voting rights)? $4.7MM could get you over 50% control. Also would need to factor in the liquidity of the shares / existence of any large holders / whether management would be cooperative in a control scenario.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 03:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chompiongolfer
Do they have any debt? If not, have you considered getting a syndicate together to gain control of the company (assuming they don't have a poison pill or shares with super-voting rights)? $4.7MM could get you over 50% control. Also would need to factor in the liquidity of the shares / existence of any large holders / whether management would be cooperative in a control scenario.
Sorry, I guess you are saying a trust already has control of the common shares. In that event, possibly think about sounding out the trust representatives as to whether they would negotiate a sale of some or all of their shares at a negotiated price...
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 03:49 PM
is it time to buy mnkd?
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 04:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chompiongolfer
Do they have any debt? If not, have you considered getting a syndicate together to gain control of the company (assuming they don't have a poison pill or shares with super-voting rights)? $4.7MM could get you over 50% control. Also would need to factor in the liquidity of the shares / existence of any large holders / whether management would be cooperative in a control scenario.
They have no debt. I would do this but the trust owns ~70% of the shares and I would imagine won't sell at market.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 04:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
call and say you work for a fund
Haha that was fail by me. They asked to look me up online and I realized that my fake investment company wouldn't have a website.

Its so strange how they don't want to talk to people. When I called before saying I was a private investor the secretary blew me off. I just don't understand why they wouldn't want to speak with potential investors. Something doesn't add up.
February Trading Thread Quote
02-03-2012 , 05:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aba20
They have no debt. I would do this but the trust owns ~70% of the shares and I would imagine won't sell at market.
Probably they would want a premium, it's just a question of how much. Another problem with these trustees is that they basically get paid for doing nothing (a sinecure), so they have no incentive to give up their well-paid do-nothing jobs. Would be nice if they paid a div - otherwise, I don't see any real upside.
February Trading Thread Quote

      
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