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05-18-2012 , 06:59 PM
I have no words for this:
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05-18-2012 , 08:26 PM
How expensive are crazy low options, like under $10? I think there's a pretty good chance that's where this is headed.
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05-18-2012 , 08:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by USC Cheats
How expensive are crazy low options, like under $10? I think there's a pretty good chance that's where this is headed.
since you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.. i'm gonna go with No...

but as soon as options become available in a week or so.. I'll sell you $10 puts all day long.. When would you like them to expire?
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05-18-2012 , 08:53 PM
Just for the stabilizing bid, the issue was 421 million shares and the greenshoe is 15%. That is about 63 million shares that can be used to stabilize. 43 million shares traded at exactly 38.0000, of which I'd estimate 15 million was Morgan Stanley. So there should be about 48 million in stabilizing ammo still left.
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05-18-2012 , 10:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Financier
Just for the stabilizing bid, the issue was 421 million shares and the greenshoe is 15%. That is about 63 million shares that can be used to stabilize. 43 million shares traded at exactly 38.0000, of which I'd estimate 15 million was Morgan Stanley. So there should be about 48 million in stabilizing ammo still left.
The thing I don't get, it looks they knew in advance the stock will tank eventually if they opted for 15%.
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05-19-2012 , 05:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by USC Cheats
How expensive are crazy low options, like under $10? I think there's a pretty good chance that's where this is headed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by fluffheadsr
since you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.. i'm gonna go with No...

but as soon as options become available in a week or so.. I'll sell you $10 puts all day long.. When would you like them to expire?
The first trading day for FB options will be Tuesday the 29th (the 28th would actually be the first day the options would be eligible, but that’s Memorial Day).

I will be exploring some options strategies to exploit skew which should offer some interesting risk reward trades. Implied vol and vega will probably be jacked though. Therefore spreads might be the way to go...
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05-20-2012 , 08:05 PM
Ok so I'm not a fundamental analysis guy but a market cap of 100B seems crazy

With revenue at 3.7 billion and profit at 1B, this market cap is saying investors expect Facebook to have increased the size of it's revenue and profit by about 10 times, in a timeframe of about 5 years. Is this conclusion correct?
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05-20-2012 , 09:42 PM
Why exactly do underwriters have a responsibility to buy Facebook at $38?

"Facebook Inc. (FB) underwriters purchased the company’s stock to keep it from falling below $38 a share after debuting on the Nasdaq Stock Market, people with knowledge of the matter said.
The bankers supported the stock after Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. (NDAQ) faced difficulties delivering trade execution messages after the initial public offering, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the transactions are private.
Jonathan Thaw, a spokesman for Menlo Park, California-based Facebook, declined to comment.
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Womack in San Francisco at bwomack1@bloomberg.net"



Also, was the IPO price at $38? Wasn't it a range of like $35 to $38?
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05-20-2012 , 09:43 PM
What is a greenshoe?
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05-20-2012 , 09:44 PM
ah, isn't wiki great?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenshoe
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05-20-2012 , 10:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JooWish622
Why exactly do underwriters have a responsibility to buy Facebook at $38?

"Facebook Inc. (FB) underwriters purchased the company’s stock to keep it from falling below $38 a share after debuting on the Nasdaq Stock Market, people with knowledge of the matter said.
The bankers supported the stock after Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. (NDAQ) faced difficulties delivering trade execution messages after the initial public offering, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the transactions are private.
Jonathan Thaw, a spokesman for Menlo Park, California-based Facebook, declined to comment.
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Womack in San Francisco at bwomack1@bloomberg.net"



Also, was the IPO price at $38? Wasn't it a range of like $35 to $38?
From what I can tell they are just paying/taking on risk to minimize damage to their reputations

Seeing as this is quite a publicized IPO, if Facebook closed below $38, tons of people will never forget how "morgan stanley helped Zuckerberg rip people off"
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05-20-2012 , 11:16 PM
an underwriter that won't support the offering is basically blackballed. of course how many days after the offering is dependent .............its almost like a used car warranty, 30ft or 30 seconds, which ever comes first.
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05-21-2012 , 12:00 AM
This isn't about the greenshoe. I guarantee the underwriting syndicate (as well as several other large FB positions out there) have every intention of selling essentially every share on their books at more than $38. And given the collective sales force at their disposal, I suspect they'll have no problem doing just that.
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05-21-2012 , 12:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clue
are you saying if you bought at $38, put in a sell order at $38.10, you'd have 100% chance at profit? Are you willing to buy Facebook at $38.01 on Monday?
I wouldn't choose to structure the trade like that, but given a choice between buying at $38.01, selling short at $38.00 (even assuming no borrow cost), or being flat I would buy.

That said, had you entered the trade you described, you would have already made money. FB closed at $38.23.
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05-21-2012 , 09:21 AM
FB has, this morning, fallen below issue price.

anyone else who bought at 38-40+ going on facebook and just mass-clicking all the ads
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05-21-2012 , 09:21 AM
down to 36.50 premarket
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05-21-2012 , 09:29 AM
I was a buyer in the 36.50 region. I didn't take a huge position, but let's see how it plays out. Sell limit 38.00.
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05-21-2012 , 09:33 AM
So far no good.

Edit: closed at 35.12. I'm surprised MS didn't defend $38 again, but oh well.

Last edited by SplawnDarts; 05-21-2012 at 09:42 AM.
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05-21-2012 , 09:44 AM
Unless you plan to follow the trend in trading, stay the **** out of Facebook stock.
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05-21-2012 , 09:44 AM
looking to break 34. not that i'd short at this point but at what point does MS release shares for borrow?
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05-21-2012 , 09:45 AM
I believe you can't short for another week, but by then it will be too late.
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05-21-2012 , 09:57 AM
you have to wait for shares to settle (t+3) to have short availability
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05-21-2012 , 09:58 AM
retail absolutely gets their faces raped in this deal. Inverse QE. everyone scrambling
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05-21-2012 , 10:07 AM
how much of this is nasdaq's fault honestly. who the hell is going to want to ipo on there again any time soon

plus, they could be on the hook for 100-200 milly for retribution for this whole mess
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05-21-2012 , 10:11 AM
It looks like not only do Facebook users not want to purchase goods on Facebook, they also had no interest in buying the stock.
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