Your Lightning take is illogical.

If I wanna make micropayments or anything sub ~$100, I don't want to go BTC>Altcoin>Payment. How is that a better UX than BTC>Payment?

Complaining about the UI is like complaining about the UI of internet shopping 20 years ago.

If ethbtc breaks 0.024, sub $10 is no longer out of the question

^ so bad.

There is no such thing as 'key points or levels'

Sorry you just don’t know what you’re talking about =/


Go back to reading level 0 commentary: which is more likely? Btc at 12k or eth at 300???

Lmfaooooooooo

I waited almost 12 months to buy back into ETH and already down over 30% lol phockkkkkkkkkin crypto

same and I went big this time

if you're new to crypto and I want to tell you to send me $10, I'm going to tell you to buy some eth (or some other fiat gateway coin, it doesn't really matter which one) and press a button. this isn't going to change even if LN worked perfectly, because I don't want to explain anything about leaving money in the channel and I really don't want you to wait 10 minutes to open the channel or have to stay online forever. some of that might be fixable but most of it is a core design issue.

if you have bitcoin and any other type of crypto I'm going to tell you to send that one instead, because why would I ever want to make a lightning node or wait 10 minutes just to get 10 bucks?

if you only have bitcoin, chances are you think it's gonna replace fiat and hodl it forever and well we're gonna have to disagree on that one - but at any rate you never, ever spend any (avg tx size $22,000 lol).

anyway, obviously not the time to catch falling knives or try to convince anyone it's gonna renaissance because crypto's achievement list atm is mostly sending 4channers to mcdonalds, but if you are gonna put one coin in cold storage and come back later it should be

You are so biased.
"LN is a way to send very small amounts of money to the same person over and over"
No it s not, it might be the early use case but absolutly not the goal.
It would be like describing ethereum as a way to do cheap transactions only.it s cheap because the project is a mess with no really used dapps that would increase costs a ton.

You might be right about lightning and it might be a dead end, the simple fact that you posted in R/BTC make me question the fact that you wanted a real discussion about lightning when you post in the single most anti lightning echo chamber.

I have two lifetime posts in all crypto subs because that post, back in January when moon boys reigned supreme, was me laying down a marker on what I thought would happen. Getting banned from r/bitcoin wasn’t necessary for that so I didn’t do it. So far it’s been a year; tell me I wasn’t dead on.

The whole FUD, hodl...vocabulary and the need to lock onto a handful of coins and defend them to the death that true believers do is 90% of why everyone got so rekt. All of crypto was a massive echo chamber for years and still is. If you want any hope of getting unrekt some day, start looking hard at use cases. This more than includes eth, whose 2017 use case just died in a fire. If your basis for being optimistic about it is a single internet poster with a slightly better track record than the dumpster fire known as crypto reddit, please don’t bet on anything in crypto.

What are you talking about. There is a working one click LN node launcher available. Stuff is being build. I know this will be a pointless discussion. But in what world can you value something which is only a promise higher than something that's actually been built out and is being used and is growing. It makes so little sense it's hard to even comprehend.

It's not a matter of defending a coin or another, there are legit problem with lightning, but posting what you posted in R/BTC is like posting about flat earth in a flatearther subreddit.
I read R/BTC on a weekly basis because i Think it s hilarious, reading your posts sorry but i see alot of similitude with the awfull stuff i read in R/BTC all the time.

Right now you have alot of open source development that are amazing regarding lightning, BTCpayserver allow an easy installation of a paiement processor that allow lightning payment and other currencies that could run on a raspberry pi.
Some Node are currently sold that require very low technical knowledge.

Ofc it s still rought and untill big exchanges start allowing lightning to cash out we wont see much lightning usage which is an obvious problem. And at first i have no doubt we ll have to rely on centralised services for lightning to take off while more developpments allow an easier usage for individuals.

In my opinions coins that arent working on a lightning compatibility already are making a big mistake.

Ethereum base layer is a huge mess, and they have alot of problem figuring out how to scale, lightning may not be the solution but at least it s somewhat working and improving all time already.

Hopefully Ethereum end up scaling with lightning and you can print your lightning sux post as a reminder

Really looks like at least a temporary bottom there on ethbtc at 0.025. Bullish .

Hey guys,

so first thing I did was I just scanned the last page and I still see pure vitrol and hatred spewed by Aggo -- honestly I am amazed (but not surprised) how clearly miserable one human being can be. So seeing that,

Let me preface this post:

I'm not your financial advisor. I'm not ever going to be "responsible" or "accountable" for your own monetary decisions -- nor should you want me to, you're your own master of this. Let me be perfectly clear about that so you don't try and push those expectations onto other people -- those should always come from within you. That should apply to any investment you make as well, seriously, unless perhaps they are your paid financial advisor and you set those expectations between you & them. I'm a guy on an internet forum who's invested in crypto for going on 6 years now -- that's it. The whole point (or for me it was) of me contributing to this thread was to offer depth into *my* process and *my* decisions. Those are backed with my own skin in the game, obviously, and not just substance less things I refuse to stand behind. There's a huge difference to me between someone doing something that opens them up to exposure (good or bad) vs someone who is a pundit that argues stuff opportunistically without even having any conviction to exposure (once again, good or bad) of their ideas. And let me be even clearer: I don't get anything for whether you buy or sell crypto X or Y, nor would I want anything either (I'm doing just fine) -- it's simply just recognizing the fact there is a small subset of very good posters on BFI who continue to offer up great ideas and it's my way to try and pay it forward as well. So yes, I'm not here to convince you of anything. Now that I have that legalease jargon out of the way that apparently needs to be said, here's what I actually wanted to say:

I just finished a meditation retreat and I'll be with family/friends over the holidays and not online. Combined with the fact prices are going bananas lately now is a good time to ask questions. I'm not looking to discuss crypto on 2p2 anymore (I've been lucky and found great private communities to discuss this with) but wanted to let anyone who's curious about anything ask me questions publicly instead of DMs. If no one is interested (I don't presume to know), that's cool too. Either way, I'll come back in a 4-5 days and read the replies from this post forward and answer any questions that are reasonable/good; anything that is hate (given this thread looks like it's unmoderated and been derailed/inactive for 1y+ now) I'll of course skip. It doesn't specifically have to be Ethereum (or Eth 2.0), but Web 3.0 is being architected as we speak and needless to say there are a lot of moving pieces being built. It pretty much goes without saying I think crypto is even more interesting than it was a year ago, so if you're wondering about anything, I'm happy to take a crack at it or point you in the right direction to learn more about it. I'll try and give as good as reply as the question. So yeah, I'll check back on and answer anything that's been asked in just under a ~week before going back into hibernation another year. Hope everyone is doing alright and talk to you guys soon!

PS - To get the most obvious or troll question out of the way: No, crypto isn't dead or on its path to becoming dead. Take a deep breath and lighten up some

It seems you are confident in major technological developments in the coming years, but does this necessarily mean increassed coin prices? Personally, I am considering dollar cost averaging throughout 2019 to accumulate both BTC and ETH. As someone who clearly has a lot of knowledge and experience, do you think this would be a reasonable idea? I am patient and willing to take on risk, but it is difficult for me to assess whether this is a temporary crash or a dying asset class. Also, do you see BTC and ETH coexisting in a few years?

You can’t fix a bear market in a 5m candle =\

1. What could drive public interest again? How many years out?
2. Where the hell is "the herd"?
3. Are whales/institutions driving the price down or is this just a classic bubble
4. Which types of coins will survive/thrive in the future (privacy, smart contract, store of value)?
5. General thoughts on btc
6. Market cap and/or price predictions 5 years from now (just for the hell of it).

you can have you stupid ass echo chamber back.

Get off your "high ground" and just stop lying. You shilled the **** out of ICOs that are now -95 to -100% in real USD terms. Just eat the L like a man and admit that you were terribly wrong. It's amazing to look back at these posts, some not even 2 years old, and realize that I !!! was the one being accused of being a shill, with zero skin in the game and being disingenuous.

Now that the ICOs you relentlessly shilled (I'm not even going to ****ing bother digging up those posts-- consider it merciful) in this thread are -95%+ you come back to this thread just to write 2 paragraphs absolving your conscience and arguing that I have attacked you with vitriol (latter is true).


You must really think that the few people who read this thread must really be so stupid that you can persist in lying through your straw mans and pretending to be the victim all the time. It's shameless and really underscores your true character.

Let's go back and review some posts so that everyone can decide whose the real shill and disingenuous, sucks at trading, sucks at ideas piece of **** is in this thread.








no skin in the game because i was too busy selling the top.

That snapshot doesn't prove you sold the top, all it does is show you sold some (very little actually). Just to put things in context, you've also called bottoms only to see (much) further decline. Does that make you the same loser as the person you're attacking?

BTC 6k bless, can't fall any further. Lock it up.

I have a bit of time now, so I'll try to take this one now:

DCA accumulating throughout 2019 is a wise idea. My own opinion is we're quite close to the bottom so if I was nudging someone I'd say the next few months will likely be better entry points than most of 2019. I could see BTC/ETH going to 2.5k or $40-50 respectively, possibly even with a spike lower, but that's neither here nor there -- these "swings" don't really matter in the end. They matter for trading volatility (trade in and out & accumulate more of the underlying token) and for entry points.

I will first talk about the risk I take and my thought process & then the amount of risk someone else should likely take.

My amount of risk I take is much higher. Even at ATH's I was comfortable knowing if everything went to zero I am completely fine. This isn't my house or rent money. Are you going to be fine having your investment drop 70%? If not, don't ever buy cryptocurrencies. I don't want to lecture people on that, but apparently it needs to be said time and time again. At these prices today, I want to have about 30-70% of my networth in crypto, and have recently bought more ETH, with plans to buy more @ 70/60/50/40/30 etc -- my situation is unique in that I have cashflow/investments outside of crypto that I'd never have to take a 9-5 or change my lifestyle if I'm "wrong" so I can take the highest EV line -- which to me is overweight crypto right when everyone thinks its dying. On a small-medium time frame (say 0-5 years) I think cryptoassets will by far have the best returns. One caveat to be aware of is if there is a global wide depression, expect cryptocurrencies to get their ass kicked as well (even worse than the stock market) because they're still not strong enough to stand alone and be seen as a real asset class yet.

For someone new to crypto, I would say 5-25% of your investing money (not "this is my house money") is likely best. DCA'ing in is fine, as is buying lump at prices today providing you are in for a multi year period and you buy the right assets.

Re: Is crypto dying? The short answer is No. The long answer is No, but it's complicated. Starting with short, crypto has over its short time (~10 years) or so swung parabolically in both directions. It's not uncommon for an asset to drop 80-90%, and one day recuperate all that and more. I'd argue we're still quite lucky in that it's emerging and the markets are having trouble trying to assign "value" to these assets as that breeds tremendous opportunity for those who take the time to understand what it is you're actually buying and investing in. Traditional DCF's or revenue models cannot be applied to much yet, and the underlying technology development is only is only accelerating.

That all being said, to be clear: I believe somewhere between 90-97% of the Top 100 on CMC are uninvestible. For those will long term go towards 0 (or basically zero) does not disprove my thesis at all, it is in fact aligned with it (the good will capture value, the useless will rot).

I do see BTC/ETH co-existing in a few years, but like many things there will be a lot of churn on rankings and valuations. Hope this helps and I'm happy to go deeper into the weeds on anything that is confusing to you.

1. There are dozens and it's actually kind of a pointless exercise. The imagery I use is of a tree growing, it's like asking which branch will blossom first. Off the top of my head, I would guess ERC-721 Non-fungible tokens & gaming. Forget blockchain for a second: It's really hard to build an online game that's popular & goes viral for millions. Now imagine building that with the buzzword "blockchain" and developing a UX that is equal to or better than a standard game. I think that will happen, and the advantage will lie in the underlying tokens and how they will be able to seamlessly transact. I don't play fortnite, but I've read that in-game purchases are huge -- imagine playing fortnite, but instead of fortnite owning your items (and your items going up in smoke when fortnite dies) you have ownership of them and they can transferred/owned & move seamlessly. I pick this example because in-gamers already intuitively kind of kind that "value" already and understand it. There is a lot to unpack on the possibilities with that, but it's an obvious first use case.

Another one is remittance payments. It cuts the costs by 90%. Don't expect big conglomerates to do this first, they already are market leaders. It will start with smaller/medium sized businesses who need to "take chances" adopting these first, and from there once it's proven out the change will come.

2. The "herd" is basically a dumb meme invented by a guy called Mike Novogratz. He was an early buyer of some crypto assets and started a hedge fund.His premise loosely was institutional investors will be buying your bags so you should buy even more now. Ignore him and that narrative as I see it as white noise -- he's just talking his books and it's as simple as that. It is true institutional money will likely one day come in; infrastructure to support that is being built and there's much written about that if you wish to explore that. The earliest that might happen is Q2 2019 perhaps as far as the infastructure being ready to go: onboarding and custodial issues, not to mention regulatory issues have to be hashed out first. But I caution you, that if you're holding assets where your thesis is that of a greater fool (someone else will speculate at a higher price than what I bought it at) I'd say you're holding the wrong stuff.

3. If you read my post last year I did mention that in the future crypto will crash -- and that's ok. This time is actually better than before as far as actual fundamentals go, because back in 2014 there was so little underlying development going on that I genuinely was worried about whether crypto was "dead" or whether it will come back. Once again to be perfectly clear, if you enter this world, you should expect crashes similar to 2014/2018 in the future -- so manage your risk appetite accordingly.

A follow up thought to that: I don't think the actual bubble has even occurred yet. This last bubble touched the lives of maybe 20-30M across the planet -- under optimistic scenarios I see potentially billions of people interacting with crypto -- and by that I don't mean speculating on an alt coin, but using it in some way in their life (likely not even knowing the word crypto or blockchain) -- and when we get there I do think past will hold true -- valuations may get ahead of themselves. My own belief is there will be a point in time in the future where crypto assets/prices truly go parabolic. If you can time that one, well that's awesome

4. This is a tough question. There are usage cases for privacy and those will have a floor of value, sure. "Store of value" is pretty stupid as of 2018. Is Bitcoin a store of value? Didn't it just drop 85%? For me a store of value has to be derived from actual utility. I understand the concept that if billions of people agree to a story than it works, but I don't think BTC is anywhere close to that yet. So yes, I think the SoV narrative is pretty dumb -- Bitcoin has the nearly the same fundamentals as it did 5 years ago, just more people are interested in it because of its price explosion the last few years. Some people see that as a feature, I see it more as a bug -- it's not really of interest of me to debate which it is anymore as it doesn't really matter to me. I also think maximalism is dumb -- definitely be open to new concepts & ideas just because this space does change fast. I think call it in 4-8 years the #1 cryptoasset will be a smart contract platform that has hundreds of billions of value built on top of it/tethered to it in some way (settlement system for security or consensus perhaps) -- maybe then it will become a SoV. If you want a true SoV, people need to go buy 30 year treasuries or just accept the few degrees of depreciation of a government currency per year.

5. I know BTC intimately having owned it 2013-2016. I sold 100% of it for Ether when it was in the single digits and haven't looked back. The last year BTC has dropped 85% or so and Ether 93% is it? The ratio started the year at .056 and now it's .026. I will make a specific prediction here, and if someone wants to "call me out" if I'm wrong in the future, please post your succinct prediction here too so we know exactly what was said. .025-.026 is a complete steal, and there's a lot to unpack here that would take a lot of time to type out and it's a different question. I could see it dropping to .019 or .015-.-012 at worst if we capitulate, but overtime I believe it will creep back up. On a multi year period I am heavily long on this ratio.

My thoughts on BTC are basically this: Around the financial crisis Satoshi wrote an amazing 8-10 page (forget how long) whitepaper on incentives. Those incentives were so strong it built a 50B+ currency and had thousands of different people mining this currency. At the time, Nakomoto consensus was I'd revolutionary. Fast forward 10 years now, and while BTC will always be the original gangster of everything, there is much better ways to accomplish what Nakomoto consensus was trying to accomplish and it will be done by those who embrace innovation. I don't own any because there are much better risk/rewards out there in my books and it doesn't fit any thesis I personally have in this space (it's a post in itself -- but there are some technical problems wrong with it too that are never spoken about). I do however trade in/out of it (similar to say a game of hot potato -- I see the value in brings in liquidity to the market (for now), and how it's more resistant to losing value during a downturn). I also think in the future there will likely be spots where BTC goes on a rip and others sideways -- I see the value of it and will likely try to trade it, but won't ever hold it longterm. It could go to $500 or $100k -- it doesn't really matter and neither extreme would change how I think about it. By the way, the narrative that the world is out against BTC is categorically false; I think the most likely scenario is people just stop caring about it. Between now and that happening, expect a roller coaster ride both ways.

6. 5 years is too long in this space -- it would be like asking in '98 to predict Google and its applications. Broadly speaking I am of the belief crypto assets will be worth trillions. Humans are use to thinking linearity; this is not how this space will work in the next few years. There will be breakthroughs that are actually meaningful as far as true value/adoption goes and they'll come online/scale overnight much more explosively than an ICO boom of 2017 -- the rate of innovation like I mentioned earlier is much higher than it was in 2014, or even 2017. Once you accept that premise, the more important questions are which assets will capture that value creation, and how? That is where people should be focusing. If I had to put a strength in belief, I'd put it at Ethereum surpassing ATH's at >80% within the next 4 years. BTC will likely pass ATH's too, if I had to guess, but to me that's because there will be another speculative bubble in the future -- I would not want to hold BTC for 50 years in cold storage w/out the opportunity to sell.

I am genuinely trying to deconstruct how you have so much rage, and it's like peeling back an onion. Let me ask you: Do you think I profited off of people buying these assets? The valuations were in hundreds of millions, the 24H liquidity in tens if not hundreds of millions, do you somehow think Joe Schmo buying $10k worth of Coin X would somehow directly benefit my bottom line? Are you aware I am quite well off outside of crypto? So even if I was nefarious, how would my actions capture or steal any of Joe's $ for my own selfish gains with everything I've posted? I speculate: but is that the mental gymnastics your brain goes through to write vitrol towards me? What is your actual issue here is what I am getting at?

Or is it:

1) ....You are mad crypto went down?
2) ....I talked about specific cryptocurrencies and trends that I see coming?
3) ....There is something in my personality/posting style that is trigger for you?
3) ....Something else?

The problem I see is talking to you is like reasoning with a 5 year old toddler throwing a tantrum. You're not capable of non-violent communication, you're also not capable of secondary order of logic, or admitting (or even seeing) your own cognitive biases and the dissonance you create. You get sucked into black/white narratives and see things in absolutes. The thing you're missing is your brain is likely programmed in a way where you're actually not capable of thinking people don't act like you/see things the way you do. I genuinely am not here to "scam" someone, and frankly to be blunt if thats your gripe you're self-admittedly a moron for thinking that over and over. I speculate, but the problem is you see the world through such a miserable lens you can't see that I'm not actually out harming souls by talking about cryptocurrencies & trends -- I even said in my last post that crypto *will* crash (Sure, I got the bottom wrong, sue me) You're also likely a very unhappy person in real life & I sincerely hope you don't talk to those in your life like this, but I digress. And as far as I'm concerned, there are no victims here, but either way it's not okay to actually rage at people online. A concept I came across this year is time-well spent -- arguing or spending energy on people like yourself is not a worthwhile endeavour and does nothing for me. So I ask again, if you can answer succinctly: what is your actual issue here?


PS - I am confused by your screenshot. What is the message in it? Are you trying to somehow discredit me or compare P&L with me by showing me a successful trade? If you sincerely answer this message (two simple questions) without spazzing I'll actually respond.

Lapping up Kazuya posting is the same dynamic that allowed this bubble absurdity to happen. Cmon BFI, step it up.

Definitely. I'm looking to drum up the readers here, I figure maybe get another 30-40billion out of these posters here into Ethereum & then sell it all off.

mad that crypto went down....

vs you--- went MIA/eKIA after -95% drop in every ICO and eth investment you advocated for

2- specific trends you saw coming

update this chart, *****.

3-- personality and posting style

isnt it obvious? you're a narcissist because of your complete abject failure at introspection. Writing big paragraphs trying to wash any sense of guilt you have for perpetuating one the biggest scams ever in crypto (eth and ICOs) to absolve your conscience versus admitting you were wrong pump scams

you are a liar because you constantly attempted to frame my arguments as incorrect, promoting FUD, disingenuous, or biased.

when the reality was (as i showed above) i tried my hardest to show people that ICOs and the scam coins you promoted in this thread would end in complete ruin. Obviously -95% in real USD terms is not enough for you to admit wrongdoing. Don't worry, once -99% comes so do the lawsuits against all of these ICOs-- lawsuits filed by real people who got actually hurt.

4- somethign else?

update this ****ign post, *****


5- something else??