Apparently we do not know yet whether this new variant will make people sicker at all. However, it seems the spike protein has changed and maybe vaccines then will not work as well. It is also possible that although it is more infectious, it will not be much more serious.

Here is hoping it will all be ok.

doubt it. from a purely economics perspective market tanked the first time because broad lockdowns. Dont think there is an appetite for that this time around, so maybe slower recovery but no where close to same impact as original.

I wonder if the smaller/slower version with no stimulus is the worse way. I think enough fear to keep people home and consuming less is probably enough to finish a lot of places on their last legs. And I doubt we can do stimulus like last time here in Canada anyway.

Interesting developments. Omicron variant is supposedly something for western governments to panic over, already moving towards masking mandates, lockdowns, and tweaking vaccines despite the doctor who discovered it saying that the disease is mild with unusual symptoms.

What's becoming increasingly relevant is the evidentially based conjecture that mass vaccination to all risk groups with leaky vaccines can put selective pressure on a virus, rendering it more virulent similar to the case of Marek's disease in chickens. It's obviously clear to everyone at this point that the vaccines do not prevent transmission. Basic logic dictates that lowering symptoms but not transmission ability would result in vaccinated people being more responsible for transmission (some of them don't even know they have it), but logic and critical reasoning has been passe for 20 months or so. It's also quite obvious that the vaccinated are 100% responsible for the spread of this variant to Western countries (unvaccinated people can't travel). With the mass vaccination of extremely low risk groups (5-20 year olds) now taking place, there exists a non-zero and increasing chance that Covid-19 will evolve into something with an extremely high fatality rate, rendering the human race completely dependent, for a long, long time, on vaccines to survive. I realize how 'sky-is-falling' this sounds but it's a well-established phenomenon. If we had targeted the risk groups for isolation and vaccination and otherwise let it rip this pandemic would be over by now. Unfortunate.

With that said, yet more deflationary pressure on the economy via lockdowns and vaccine mandates is going to result in more stimulus soon. I can't think of any reasons why this wouldn't stimulate the market, save the chance that the facade is nearing an end and more stimulus has the reverse effect of what's intended.

Does anybody know if any Asian countries vaccinated anybody when the initial SARS started circa 2002? Why didn't the SARS in the early 2000s spread to western countries? But yeah, out of all that has happened the push for vaccinating the young is one of the things that really leaves me most confused and baffled.

My loose understanding is they attempted to develop a vaccine for SARS. Nearly everyone who received the vaccine perished when exposed to the wild virus.

The original SARS virus had an enormously high mortality rate and couldn't be spread until mid onset of the disease. So people got really sick before they were able to spread it and a lot of them died.

Interestingly, the original SARS virus also escaped from multiple Chinese labs.

There is no evidence for this claim.
In fact, it's objectively true that the unvaccinated are making the pandemic much worse.

Lots of highly educated people have been making predictive hypotheses (you know, science?) that vaccinating with leaky vaccines during a pandemic would

A. lead to more highly transmissible variants
B. lead to more highly virulent strains
C. lead to vaccine bypassing strains

Delta was the first to meet all three. Omicron meets A and C; still uncertain whether it meets B. The trend has certainly proven true thus far, which is the definition of the world evidence (at least in a scientific context).

I'll leave it up to you to explain how people who

1. Can't go to restaurants
2. Can't travel
3. Can't do any discretionary activities
4. Can't work
5. Have stronger symptoms than the vaccinated

are making the pandemic worse. My hypothesis is that the more people get vaccinated, the worse this is going to get. You can screencap this for later.

What’s your conclusion ?
People would of been better protected without any vaccine ?

Most people didn't need protection from covid. 95% of deaths and hospitalizations were >60 year olds. Natural immunity is mostly sterilizing following infection. You make antibodies for multiple parts of the virus (not just the s-protein) and it protects you long term from variants.

If I'm right, predictions:

1) Booster shots going to be given every few months---most countries will mandate it.
2) More and more variants will emerge and bypass the vaccines
3) More and more vaccines for more and more variants
4) Covid keeps getting worse and worse-more transmissible, record cases, and so on
5) Covid gets more deadly (?)
6) Worst case: Human race becomes dependent on vaccines for survival

Hopefully the virus doesn't become more deadly, or we are in super deep ****. However, because 70%+ of people are now protected from severe symptoms including the biggest naive immunity sink we have---children---which just means that more deadly strains of corona are not selected against (more deadly strains survive and replicate in a vaccinated person), it's a somewhat likely possibility.

In my opinion, the bolded is the goal of the Medical-Industrial Complex.

In my opinion, the AMA is more sinister than the Mafia.

Knock it off. This is not for discussion of your anti-medicine / anti-science conspiracy nonsense about vaccinations. Take it somewhere else, this is for FINANCIAL related discussion.

Next post that is even close gets a temp ban.

re science, your claims with 0 evidence/citations are irrelevant.

Also, phrases like 'highly educated people have been making predictive hypotheses' are typical charlatan speak.

Welcome back! Have another break for the personal attacks.

Ciao!

The US is choosing not to lock down again over the Omicron variant because the economy is in the toilet right now. Biden, however, is instituting restrictions that have pretty much been proven not to work. Even some talk of vaccine-dependent domestic travel, which is hilariously illegal. I've got my fingers crossed that Omicron is not an antibody-dependent enhanced variant, or they'll probably have no choice but to lock down.

is this the right thread to talk about supply chains? everyone knows about the higher inflation but im really more interested in the economic impact on food energy and national security tech supply chains. in europe the biggest issue is russia cutting off energy supplies. europe could half freeze to death this winter if putin wants. if theres a civil war in the u.s. the east and west coasts have no way to feed themselves. most of the troops come from the middle of america and would easily starve the lberal coasts into unconditional surrender. in asia the u.s. army is openly talking about no longer trying to defend taiwan, but instead warning off china of invasion that they will blow up all of the chip factories in taiwan if china tries to invade.

What does any of this have to do with Coronavirus? Thinly disguised geopolitical fantasies don't really belong anywhere in BFI.

Covid, economy and politics are totally intertwined at this point and it is pretty much impossible to discuss any of those 3 topics without the influence of the other 2.

ugh thank you. Appreciate this.

Btw, it's perfectly reasonable to discuss the impact of COVID on global supply chain issues - but it has to be grounded in reality. For example, I already predicted a lot of this way back in March 2020:

It's not okay to simply dress up your naked hatred of people to conjure up scenarios where your political enemies suffer and pretend that those fantasies represent some type of supply chain analysis.

I posted this in response to the above:

What I forgot to mention is that I have been fully vaccinated (Pfizer) since August, making you 0 for 3 on your accusations.

This.

You're done, don't post in this thread ever again.

I wasn't even talking to you. You are on thin ice too, so either keep your posts in this forum related to BFI or go post elsewhere.

Welp, we're going to try. I'm confident that intelligent / rational posters can discuss the first two without the third.

I just deleted about 25 posts in this thread of complete garbage.

Sorry, jalexand42, I misunderstood. The post of yours that I responded to was immediately after my post.

I will henceforth confine my skating to thick ice.