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Originally Posted by Do0rDoNot
Your conclusion is that TA is no different than gambling---it offers no edge. Your analogy illustrates this. You assume your conclusion.
No. This is painful for everyone reading who's not ******ed. Do try and follow. There is no conclusion in my answer to yours. You are reading a conclusion in because your'e a ****ing ******. This is literally what happened.
You make pointless, worthless point:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Do0rDoNot
I know a guy who made 45k last week using TA only. Seen his trading account---100% legit.
I use exactly the same logic in a reductio ad absurdum to show you that it's a pointless, worthless post:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
I saw a guy a few years ago pull down $70K at roulette in 20 minutes, using chip-kissing only as his strategy. Seen it happen in real time---100% legit.
This is me saying "your point is ridiculous bro and so are you". I am making absolutely no claims about TA here. I am making no conclusion other than the
utter stupidity of your post.
This goes right over your head and hilarity ensues. Even after I explain to you exactly what is going on, you double down on the stupid, as if you lack the ability to step back. Amazing stuff.
Quote:
The fact is that some of the best traders in the world use TA somewhat.
What percentage? Have you surveyed them? Did you miss the point about highly competent people using things which are 0 EV or -EV and swearing by them? It happens in most fields.
We could have an interesting discussion here but you're at tard level, bro. You cannot keep up with the conversation. I anticipated and answered your next post before you made it. This went right over your head - as I literally predicted it would:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
(the following is over your head (despite being very simple) and is written for the people who aren't Aspie-level dumb
Anyway, good times.
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You are not one of the best traders in the world (you're not even one of the best traders on twoplustwo).
Quite a few would disagree with that last statement. I'm top 5 in BFI easily by real time, posted short term trades.
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So what you say doesn't matter, no matter how many words you use to say it.
So no one should speak on TA except the most successful traders in the world? Why are you speaking?
The quants who work for firms like Renaissance doing pure, advanced technical analysis at the cutting edge (for tiny returns leveraging large amounts of capital repeatedly that retail can't capture due to fees and spread) laugh their asses off at retail technical analysis. They are way way way way smarter than you and way smarter than me.
Do they get to speak? Do you get to speak given that you disagree with them and are substantially less intelligent and knowledgeable than them?
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This might be an appeal to authority, but at least it's an appeal to an actual authority instead of assumed authority about finance on a goddamn poker forum from someone who isn't actually concerned with what works or not, just concerned about winning internet arguments.
So you recognize the fallacy but decide to go ahead with it anyway? Good job bro.
What about the authority of people who have studied TA extensively in the published literature, who find that there is no meaningful short term TA signal, and that support and resistance are bull**** with an upper bound on their effectiveness that's less than retail fees and spread?
I'm quoting these guys. They make strong claims with strong evidence. The strongest claim you have made is that "some of the best in the world us TA somewhat". I've already explained why that's a ridiculously weak claim. Some of the best in the world have used astrology and various other totally worthless methods some of the time. See the problem with your claim? Hell, the entire expert-level options pricing market makers horribly mispriced tail risk for 20+ years - yet they still made money
despite widely doing and believing in a model that was -EV. See the problem with your argument, you moron? Of course you don't.
It is very easy to prove that TA works and has a nice edge if it did in fact have that. Many researchers have attempted to do just that - it would make them famous. No one has managed to do it. That lack of evidence alone says quite a lot.
Last edited by ToothSayer; 09-26-2018 at 03:24 PM.