Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePLOGrinder
Thanks for all the responses, they are good and really appreciated.
I should have said that I have two rental properties. One with a mortgage for half the value. It expires in 4 years and now rates are a lot higher. I would like to be in a position to pay this off in 4 years.
I am sitting on cash which is 37% of the amount I would need to pay off the mortgage. I have in index funds, around 48% of the value I owe on the mortgage. If selling stocks I would have to pay capital gains. Also, I would be super concentrated in real estate with nothing else.
I do not work, I used to grind poker for many years and really not keen on this any more.
In a tricky situation since I dont need to work to live a basic lifestyle but dont want to really be bored.
Maybe I will invest the cash I have now and get around 5% a year and leave the stocks as they are, about 85% equity 15% bonds.
The S&P 500 is high , America seems to have benefitted from Europe since the Russia/Ukrine war. However, rates are increasing and times are getting tough for many.
Even if you're correct you still have to get back into the market when it rebounds and there's no way to know when the recovery happens, nor can you guarantee you capture the large gains that come in a short period of time and ultimately are needed in order to actually achieve the historical return long term investment yields
In other words, you (most likely) will fall behind the portfolio that buys and holds VOO and never wavers...
You lose on compounding. And even if you are trying to make those gains back elsewhere, you are (most likely) simply taking on more risk that you hope justifies the reward...
Timing the market isn't just about getting in low and out high, you have to actually capture the gains. All of them. And never make a mistake. For 30-50 years. Otherwise, you are better off just socking away at VOO