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07-11-2018 , 01:14 AM
In a lot of markets, the falling demand of local electricity puts power plants in a bind. In order to export the longest distance markets which are most profitable, they need to produce more electricity locally than is needed.

why? the simple physics of losing energy over distance. over each transmission line and changes in resistance result in loss of electricity downstream. So in order to subsidize the cost of exporting electricity downstream, power plants need to produce a lot of energy up front to ensure that they can export more energy downstream to fulfill their contracts. This is why there are alot of miners setting up businesses close to powerplants; its cheapest locally, and the powerplants want the business so that their electricity is even more profitable downstream. it's serious enough that a lot of these mining companies enter contractual agreements with power plants and local governments (not just a usa thing).

here is an article which describes this issue in nuance that local towns are grappling with. Some see the mining as a net positive, some as a net negative.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/28/b...ductivity.html
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07-11-2018 , 01:36 AM
Shhh, BTC is causing the end of the world and you are a selfish POS if you use it.
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07-11-2018 , 04:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
I would think bitcoin is still a good bet over the next 2-10 years, mostly because I think an ETF and mainstream adoption into managed portfolios is still fairly likely to happen and could cause the price to fly, while ****coins on aggregate are a terrible bet over any time period.

I wouldn't want to speculate on an outcome curve. I just see it fading away with occasional bumps from news until something major (ETF) happens.

In any case, bitcoin traders/"investors" are probably the dumbest group in all of finance by at least a few orders of magnitude so I expect there will be plenty of time to react to any super bullish news in the future.


On the other hand, if you or someone else wants to pick a specific date in the future and a bunch of us all independently draw our expected btc price distribution on that date, I'd participate in that.
I'd love to bet on the average IQ of 25 longterm bitcoiners vs your IQ.
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07-11-2018 , 04:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoolTimer
I'd love to bet on the average IQ of 25 longterm bitcoiners vs your IQ.
So would I. Let's make it happen
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07-12-2018 , 01:09 PM
I'm roughly at 10-20%, but I'm not re-balancing if it gets higher.
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07-12-2018 , 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoolTimer
I'd love to bet on the average IQ of 25 longterm bitcoiners vs your IQ.
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
So would I. Let's make it happen
Wow @ CoolTimer. Just wow. I'll be providing liquidity for this bet if CoolTimer wants to make it happen. I'd give him 3:1.
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07-13-2018 , 02:05 AM
I can pick my bitcoiners? Oh man, I wish this would be feasible to do.
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07-13-2018 , 08:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoolTimer
I can pick my bitcoiners? Oh man, I wish this would be feasible to do.
Well you're drawing dead to pick 25 long term bitcoiners with a higher average IQ, so sure, pick whoever you want
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07-13-2018 , 08:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Well you're drawing dead to pick 25 long term bitcoiners with a higher average IQ, so sure, pick whoever you want
This "bet" is stupid and will never happen. But in a pure IQ test you could definitely lose, there are some cryptography/computer science guys out there with ridiculous IQs. Add in some understanding of finance and economics, and you're a lock to win.
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07-13-2018 , 10:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Well you're drawing dead to pick 25 long term bitcoiners with a higher average IQ, so sure, pick whoever you want
lol the arrogance

sure hope you're a multi-millionaire many times over

you've been in poker/trading since 2004, should at least have 8 figures right?
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07-13-2018 , 10:49 AM
stinkypete: Regarding the finance world, people all about BTC are the dumbest of them all by far

CoolTimer: I bet the average IQ out of 25 BTC fanbois of my choosing has a higher IQ than you

Bet's a pointless non sequitur proposed by someone who seems to have taken stinkypete's opinion personally, even though it may not even apply to him. Or he just thinks it was a remarkably absurd statement. You do realize you both can be correct on your implications, right?

Anyway...as for my allocation of crypto, I don't **** with any alts except ETH. I have BTC as well, but that's it. I still feel like I don't fully understand blockchain and cryptos and I don't feel like researching the solidity of teams and innovation of techs. I own only ETH and BTC bc it seems they're the only two trading pairs to get all other alts. Doesn't that mean all alts are ****ed if ETH and/or BTC is ****ed? That makes me think the only long term choices are those two and if you're gonna day trade, swing trade, gamble on penny stocks, etc, then you play with all non ETH alts.

I don't really believe in the long term viability of ETH or BTC, but I am a long term holder as things stand now. I literally have two thoughts in my head where they're viable and will grow exponentially and can def end at $100k or higher as blockchain slowly integrates into society. The other thought is this is just a fad. It'll pump a few more times for whatever reason and then nobody's going to give a **** about it financially ever again. And we'll all lol at how absurd it ever got.

As for timing with a long term perspective, I'm thinking invest at regular intervals, load up as much as possible after each Mt Gox sale (how many are left?), and if possible, load up before ETFs get introduced. If things go well, I'll re-evaluate and decide to stay, get out, or split the difference.

Flame away please.
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07-13-2018 , 10:55 AM
Teflon,

I think you'll get varying responses depending if you are carrying out that plan with 1% of your net worth or 30%
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07-13-2018 , 11:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMVP
lol the arrogance

sure hope you're a multi-millionaire many times over

you've been in poker/trading since 2004, should at least have 8 figures right?
Because a top 1% IQ (more than enough to win the proposed bet) is a guarantee of top 0.001% financial success even if you spend all your time playing golf
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07-13-2018 , 11:24 AM
is a long term bitcoiner someone whose held crypto for >x years or someone who thinks it won’t implode x years from now?
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07-13-2018 , 11:31 AM
Long term bitcoiner = genuinely believes HODL MOON for bitcoin (> $1 million)
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07-13-2018 , 11:54 AM
Why choose a definition of long term bitcoiner that’s so fringe? If being long btc is what he meant, I’d say thinking BtC will outperform capital markets over a 10 (or 20, or 50) year time horizon is a more fair metric.
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07-13-2018 , 12:20 PM
12 Russians indicted for interfering with 2016 election. Russians used computer networks worldwide to conceal activity and paid malicious co conspirators with cryptos
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07-13-2018 , 01:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeflonDawg
12 Russians indicted for interfering with 2016 election. Russians used computer networks worldwide to conceal activity and paid malicious co conspirators with cryptos
Yes, you wrote this in at least one other thread as well. Sounds bullish--the cat's out of the bag and these cryptos will be used more and more to meet the transactional needs of our global marketplace, whatever they may be.
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07-13-2018 , 07:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Because a top 1% IQ (more than enough to win the proposed bet) is a guarantee of top 0.001% financial success even if you spend all your time playing golf
yeah ok buddy

that's the beauty of having capital and, you know, investing. you can play golf all day and still get rich!

hell, I did the golf thing for a few years, made every mistake in the book in my 20's, lost mid 6 figures in an actual ponzi, invested in several failed businesses, built my parents a house, went broke, and I'll still reach 8 figures.

enjoy that top 1% IQ tho.
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07-13-2018 , 08:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMVP
yeah ok buddy

that's the beauty of having capital and, you know, investing. you can play golf all day and still get rich!

hell, I did the golf thing for a few years, made every mistake in the book in my 20's, lost mid 6 figures in an actual ponzi, invested in several failed businesses, built my parents a house, went broke, and I'll still reach 8 figures.

enjoy that top 1% IQ tho.
That's great that you can step into a conversation that has nothing to do with you or wealth in general and tell everyone how rich you are

For me the goal has never been to go broke trying to get rich, but since you seem to think that's the only worthwhile goal in life I hope you're enjoying your biiiiiitconnneeeeeeeeeeeect

Last edited by stinkypete; 07-13-2018 at 08:12 PM.
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07-13-2018 , 08:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
That's great that you can step into a conversation that has nothing to do with you or IQ in general and tell everyone how smart you are
FYP
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07-13-2018 , 08:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMVP
FYP
Except I'm not the one who brought it up. I was offered a bet and accepted.

If someone wanted to bet you they can find 25 hundred pound vegan chicks who can eat more cheeseburgers than you without throwing up, would you take it? That's basically the bet that was offered.

Last edited by stinkypete; 07-13-2018 at 08:19 PM.
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07-13-2018 , 08:49 PM
Fair point.

However, this is a trading subsection of a poker forum, IQ and earned wealth are very highly correlated.

IQ bets that will never happen are stupid and will always devolve to who has made the most money.

Long-term bitcoiners are much wealthier than you. Perhaps that's why you're so salty.

Last edited by TheMVP; 07-13-2018 at 08:55 PM.
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07-13-2018 , 09:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMVP
Long-term bitcoiners are much wealthier than you. Perhaps that's why you're so salty.
When I started playing poker I learned to appreciate rich people who have no idea what they're doing with their money
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07-16-2018 , 03:26 AM
Betting on IQ's is stupid, I agree. But it was just a reaction to him saying how dumb Bitcoiners are. I could pick every blockstream developer, every lightning integration developer, several strong privacy related protocol developers and Nick Szabo (and this is leaving a lot of smart people out btw). You must have some serious confidence in your own intelligence to be happy to bet this.
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