I am, thanks.

If you believe in the efficient market hypothesis, then why on Earth are you buying Bitcoin? You just claimed with the above statement that you have little edge - the maximum risk you can take on Bitcoin is -100%. So why put it in Bitcoin? Why not go and gamble with it? Split your money on a 10:1 and 100:1 shot on a horse and have the outcome immediately rather than waiting years. Move up stakes, where at least you know you are +EV?

To think that Bitcoin is some huge opportunity beyond a pure low EV gamble, you must soundly reject the efficient market hypothesis.

In fact, why not shove your money into something that's 99.9% likely to fail, such as one of the alt coins? Huge EV there, because you're taking on far more risk!

The whole thing is ridiculous. You're seeing bitcoin rising and rising and you're terrified of missing out. It's classic bubble psychology.

lol, "the bull's utter irrationality and blindness" to the things that everyone talks about on every bitcoin forum in existence and has been for the last 5 years. it's 2 years later you're still a poser that just don't get it.


stop saying that 'strong buy' was your constant position, "bro." you only subserviently called it a strong buy in the last few posts before you left with your tail between your legs after tomcollins has been trying to knock some sense into you for 5 ****ing months. your original position was that it fundamentally flawed and it was going to 0 without an etf. go read the thread again. you never came back because your prediction about bitcoin dying without an etf was patently false. the etf was ***ENTIRELY*** irrelevant to where it was headed from the beginning.

this is just noise. it's irrelevant how long it can hypothetically take. the point is that you said if etf doesn't come, bitcoin goes to zero. we could've out the details and i would've bet anything that etf wasn't going to affect bitcoin within any reasonable timeframe. but of course you didn't respond because you were too scared to put your money where your mouth is.

i don't have most of my net worth in bitcoin.

"no u." okay.

i must admit that it feels pretty good to expose you for the poser that you are 2 years later.

In fact, why not shove your money into something that's 99.9% likely to fail, such as one of the alt coins? Huge EV there, because you're taking on far more risk!

I did point out the amount of risk I have to take has to be the maximum while being responsible for my life, so I don't get why you are saying this.

I do agree I have little edge. I think ethereum is a high voladity play and very plus ev. I also believe life becomes more fun if you invest at the same time into something you believe in (happiness ev), hence why I want to invest ethereum. From a rational standpoint I think this also makes it easier to hold while downswinging since I believe in it so much. Maybe a small % Bitcoin to spread risk, but my gut feeling tells me ethereum is right (after watching many videos, reading about it etc)

If anyone doubts that's you're blatantly lying, here's proof.
My last post was in May 2015:
This is from 26th January 2015:
I mean, **** me. What you said above is 100% false.
I mean, what you said is a blatant lie (I prove that above), my bitcoin buy recommendations were spot on the money, completely consistent and unchanging, and that's about all there is to it. You confuse exploring Bitcoin's long term flaws and limitations in discussion, with short-medium term trading, on which I never wavered. There's something wrong with you, dude. And wow you are butthurt. About what, I don't know. I don't even know who you are.

Ironically, all you've done here is expose yourself as blatantly lying and kind of super angry. It's hilarious. Anyway, have the last word, this is off topic.

I don't understand this at all. In fact it contradicts your entire thesis. Given that the bull case has such massive return (100x, maybe), you'd have to believe that Bitcoin case is 98% likely to go to zero in order to say that you have little edge. And that's without counting the mid case, which requires even higher probability of zero or loss for you to have "little edge".

So something around cryptos simply isn't straight in your mind. Let's examine the logic here:

1. You believe in the EMH,
2. You claim you believe you have little edge
3. The return in the plausible bull case for Bitcoin (10 - 100 bagger) + the middle case (few bagger after which you sell) means that bitcoin must be 99% likely to go to zero in a way where you lose 100% (this last is required, otherwise you have hugely +EV).
4. You claim that you want to invest responsibly.

Something is wrong in this picture.
This is completely false. Some food for thought.



For the stock market at least, it's a total delusion/widespread false meme that risk and long term return are correlated. They're inversely correlated. I mean, I'm glad that the large majority of people including experts are stupid enough believe this meme (they take ****ty risky investments which keeps the good stuff cheap for the smart), but still. We're supposed to be smarter at 2+2.

You can pretty much tell that someone has little capacity for original thought if they're frequently involved in the market and believe the risk return correlation meme.

etf prediction, false, poser, etc.

This debate is derailing thread.

OP, buy crypto.

I am. Did send 25k to bitstamp. 50% #yolo Lets go.

In all seriousness I think the potential upside outweights the potential downside. I am young enough to be able to make it back in case this goes wrong. Thanks everyone

Guy puts half his life saving in digital currency, thank to 2p2 advice.

You got a plan for what you're going to do if this bubble continues a bit more (I sure as hell am not calling a top here at $1600), and you maybe double or triple your money? Do you hold, or trim?

Just curious.

Always hold

These are the kind of mistakes you want to make early in life so you can laugh at yourself for being a total scrub some years from now.

No one here is claiming Ethereum or any specific cryptocurrency is a lock. With hindsight a few years from now things will look much more obvious one way or the other.

The assumptions being made here (by me) are:

1) Cryptocurrencies is a tremendous growth industry; Blockchain technologies are going to be a part of our future life in ways we cannot even yet imagine. This is just the beginning. If you don't think this is the case than cryptocurrencies are a ****ty investment for you.

2) Given 1), Ethereum (as of Q2 2017) is likely the best crypto to capture this shift for a bunch of reasons in my mind. As it stands, the assumption is a lot of the changes/shifts we're going to see in the near future will likely be done on this [Ethereum] platform. This will add tremendous value to the coin, as it becomes more 'accepted' in the traditional sense and proves itself and its worth to people outside of the cryptocurrency community. If this were to happen, are all these changes priced in at $95? I'm betting 'Hell no not even close'. Yes, of course there is tremendous uncertainty in the future and things can change*


If I or OP lose all their investment, sure people will point at us and say 'What squares'... who really gives a **** though honestly? As someone who likes to think of himself as self-made, stand up for what you believe in and if you're wrong take it like a man and learn from the experience. Bet/invest only what you can truly lose. Given what I know at this point in time, I'd do it again (but in life as you know you can only run-it-once). If Ethereum reaches its potential/becomes less uncertain, or continues down that path, and the price goes up a bunch, yeah we surely dodged some potential landmines along the way and got 'lucky' in that sense [the assumptions becoming reality].. but that's also a conscious choice on my end by investing at this point to continue to trust the developers and decision makers of this coin. Either way, it is what it is. Just make your decision on what your convictions are and be at peace with the future results.

*and if there is a change, I trust myself to not have cognitive dissonance

How did that "Tesla gonna stay ~150 trade" go?

Just kinda reading this thread for grins. Every now and then though, you find gold...

lolloloooolllooolloolllool

O jesus.

GL.

It shouldnt be hard to see how stupid this.

I don't know yet. I did ask advice from people that I respect/have financial success and asked here for some extra opinions and will likely do the same in the future. I accept that I don't know everything so when making an important decision I try to ask advice from smart people, ask myself what makes sense to me and follow that. Let's just say I try to model people who have success instead of trying to figure everything out myself.

It's comedy gold.

Claims he wants to invest responsibly
Claims he believes in efficient market hypothesis and that he has little edge
Puts half his life savings in something where the bull case is 100:1
Doesn't realize this necessarily means he's 98% like to fail and lose it all

Just comedy gold.

I start this thread to have a mature discussion about my portfolio and just because I don't agree with some arguments means bashing is the right thing? A bit better arguments would be appreciated since I am here to learn and trying to read everything with an open mind.

Hodl

Full Kelly

Where is the bashing? I laid out clearly and patiently the glaring logical inconsistency you have in your investing claims/goals.

You either:

- Don't believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis, despite saying you do
- Believe you have an enormous edge, despite saying you don't have one.
- Don't believe bitcoin has a 10+ bagger in the bull case.
- Are certain to lose all your money over 90% of the time (99% if you believe bitcoin is a potential 100 bagger in the best case)

One of the above is true. Which one is it?

If you think exposing inconsistencies in your investment thinking is "bashing", then you're not really here to learn.

Comedy gold, comedy gold. Just saying ''risking 50% of net worth'' and not taking into account earning potential or whatever.

The last thing you said makes more sense, thank you.

If you believe in blockchain tech it's still very very early and may as well shove.

50b total market cap is nothing. It can grow exponentially. Will it be bitcoin, ethereum, both, something else? Not sure. The space on the whole will grow though.

The upside cap is in the trillions. Get in for the ride.