stinkypete wrong for once, I guess miracles do happen
Some questions to better assess your situation:
- What does bustoville mean to you? Say I took all your money right now, pressed the doom switch so that you were unable to make money at poker for 18 months, what would happen to you?
- Have you thought of other ways of upping your income? $2K/month seems very low for a smart guy with a finance degree. In the long run, upskilling and getting a better paying job/activity is worth far more than investing. It will crush investing. I realize you might value freedom and not want to work a regular job, but even then there are possibilities. Adding a part time job to your poker, for example, will give you a capital return of 20-30% annualized on your $50K.
To answer your crypto question, there's zero reason to put 100% in. Putting 80% in is far preferable to 100%. $50K times (big return on crypto) has the same utility as $40K * (big return on crypto), yet $10K has for more utility than $0K on the downside.
I wouldn't put much into crypto now. I loved it at $250 because the downside risk was very low and the chance of upside very high:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSoother
Bitcoin is forming a nice base here. Four solid months of stability in the $200-$300 range. A $3 billion market cap must be about congruent with the size of the illegal economy that sustains bitcoin.
Gives me even more conviction that this is a strong buy pending the events that will put it over $1000 one last time before dying forever.
But now the downside risk is high. You could lose 80% quite quickly if anything goes wrong, and not recover for years. $40K is a lot to lose. And the upside is uncertain. Bitcoin has a $25 billion market cap, which is a lot larger than the pool of money that flows through the illegal activity that sustains bitcoin. A decent portion is speculation right now.
The thing is, when you add up the various odds, I believe your EV is far higher buying after a crash than right now. One of the costliest things with buying in at highs, is that you miss the opportunity to buy in at a lows. And buying at lows is what makes you truly rich. The rest is just luck.
IMO if you want to play this, put in an amount of money you could bear to lose - $10K or $15K. 1/3*big number is almost as good as big number. But losing 1/3 of your wealth when you're on a lowish income is way better than losing all of your wealth.
If it was my money I'd keep it out with Bitcoin at $1500. I'd probably shove it in at $300 though.