I read this entire thread, and I'm really impressed by how intelligent the discussion has been, even among those who disagreed with each other. This was more informative than a news site would usually be on the issue.
The market is now down around 10% from highs, and many here predicted the crash. Your logic may have actually swayed people to shorting the markets. After reading this thread, I can see that a worldwide recession is highly possible, and particularly likely if Covid-19 becomes a worldwide catastrophe.
You can apparently still book a flight from South Korea to Los Angeles. As far as I understand, planes don't fly empty. So if it's flying to LA there are people from South Korea on it. It's possible that developed countries such as the USA are now becoming infected, but that testing is so low that it remains undetected. I imagine there could be a lot of people with severe symptoms right now but hospitals and doctors are labeling it as the flu or something else. International travel to the USA should likely be completely shut down. But of course that probably won't happen until it's too late as it would crush the precious economy.
The fatality percentage may be underestimated by WHO. We currently have 39,439 closed cases. 36,581 people have recovered and been discharged while 2868 people or 7% have died. That is a 7% death rate and there are still 43,940 active cases, many of whom will also die. The death rate of this virus might be astronomical, especially if hospitals push past capacity.
With 83,379 total cases at this point, it's possible that 800,000 cases are currently unreported. It could even be 8,000,000 at this point. This is especially the case if many people have it without any major symptoms but are still contagious. The world is testing such a small % of the population that the infection rate could be much more staggering, especially in the weeks to come. Without a widespread testing system, the virus could spread to so many people but there becomes no way to accurately assess how many people have it, as there is simply no way to test the masses for it.
Are coroners testing for Coronavirus worldwide? And can anyone compare the current mortality rate to previous years? If people start dying in a much larger number than would be considered normal, that needs to be monitored. Because there's almost no way we can rely on testing alone at this point, unless a test magically rolls out globally very soon.
Many here may be young, but reports show there may be permanent damage done by the virus. The virus may permanently damage your ability to breathe properly.
If we have a worldwide pandemic, people stay in their homes. This means businesses don't make as much money. Which means layoffs. Which means people can't spend as much. Which means worldwide recession.
The best case scenario is that it's seasonal and the summer slows it down, or that it stops spreading for some reason, or people begin building immunities to it, or medicine/vaccinations come out very soon.
It's now incredibly difficult to broadly test the asymptomatic public for this virus. So the world now should be counting how many people are reporting pneumonia like symptoms and comparing those with normal figures to determine an accurate estimate of critical Coronavirus outbreaks. I wouldn't at all be surprised if "flu" and "pneumonia" cases have skyrockted globally but it hasn't even been recorded or reported, and no one knows it. It's possible that cities in Europe and America are seeing an influx of patients with these symptoms but are being falsely classified as having a common cold or flu. So these cases need to be reported and someone needs to compile what normal figures usually look like.
I wish you all good health and good luck, and hopefully this thing doesn't turn for the worse.