The crazy thing about lol markets is that the last days have actually been good days for the coronavirus scenarios.
No new out of control clusters that require lockdowns, no increase of deaths in Diamond Princess, only older people dying in Italy.
If you would have told me on Sunday this is how Thursday going to look like I would have snap called it.

Confirmed massive global spread "has been good days for the coronavirus scenarios"? What? In the past few days it's spread to a huge number of new countries, and large clusters have been confirmed everywhere. We've discovered that Italian travelers have spread it all over Europe and Iranians all over the Middle East. Borders shut, 90% cancellation rate of bookings in Rome (this will have flow on economic effects).

Italy is also not good for cases:

34% needing hospitalization and 8% in intensive care of all the known cases is not good news. Lack of young people dying is meaningless; at young : old relative death rate of 50:1 you'd need 50 dead old people for every young one.

Italy will also have no idea any more who has it, it seems:
Sounds solid.

Confirmed massive spread was a given after last Friday data. By the time this thread was created it was obvious a pandemic was going to happen.

You are moving your goalposts when evaluating the outbreak.

If you post on Sunday that “ X is going to happen” then don’t post “ Omg X is happening “ in Thursday. We knew X was going to happen, so it’s not a pessimistic scenario when X happens because we were already expecting it to happen.

It seems to me you want to be on the catastrophic sides of things at all time.

The only really bad news from the last days is the woman in Japan that got tested positive after we thought she had recovered.

"Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar testified Wednesday that he couldn’t promise a coronavirus vaccine would be made available to Americans who couldn’t afford the medicine. "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...ricing-system/

I've been predicting this for weeks, this thread was branched out by a mod. No goalposts have ever been moved. Analysis has been spot on the entire time.
Who is "we"? The data has turned out a lot worse than expected. This could have been a slow spread or a fast one, contained in a few scary countries or spread across every country in multiple continents. The worst case has happened and faster than expected.

You seem to think there could be lots of young deaths already. You're not thinking this through. There hasn't been time for the young to die. For one thing you need >500 young people infected for >4 weeks to get a single young death. That just isn't' the case; four weeks ago it was just spreading out from China for the first time.
No, you just can't analyze anything properly.

Really? Huge outbreaks in Iran confirmed spreading over the entire Middle East isn't "really bad news"?

Italy being probably thousands and across all regions rather than contained to some towns isn't "really bad news"? Rome losing 90% of bookings to cancellations in a few days, and borders closing, isn't "really bad news"

China stabilizing at 500/day rather than continuing to decline isn't bad?

Korea going +500 in a day isn't "really bad news"?

I see no silver lining anywhere if your expectations are thought out. There should be close to zero young deaths yet, or any deaths really outside China. At a 2% death rate, deaths today represent 2% of infections four weeks ago. 80% of them will be quite old and <5% will be young. There's simply no data yet that can give an encouraging view.

So you are simply not going to mention that deaths in China are drastically going down in the last 3 days ?

Look , this outbreak is bad , I agree with the core of what you are saying but if every time you have bad news then that’s simply not a good analysis.
You are either :
Looking at only very negative data and ignoring the positive one.
Making assumptions that are way too optimistic about how the next day will go given that every time you look at new data you are disappointed.

China means nothing. That it was contained after a 34 day total lockdown (well, only adding 500/day) is good news, but also completely expected. It would have happened weeks ago if this was the flu.

And how is deaths going down in China, good? The infection has peaked (2-3 weeks ago) and is declining. China has 78,000 infections with 2,788 deaths. That's a rate of 3.57% already with 8500 serious and critical still to resolve, of which at least a thousand will die. And a bunch still to progress to serious and critical. That leaves us at over a 5% death rate for China. That is horrible news. Add in death underreported by 50% (easily) and infection undercaught by 400% (very likely upper bound given population samples from evacuated expats), and you're about 1.87% real death rate. There's nothing good here.

What the hell is the good news? There is none. The news you think is good news (no young deaths) is meaningless. I explained why. The only news we have is that this has spread far faster and more insidiously than most expected, and that health authorities are more incompetent than expected, and that economic chilling effects are happening faster than expected.

Of course there isn’t good news in a pandemic when people are dying, sigh.

I’m saying that if every time you watch the news your perception of the outbreak gets worse then that means that your previous perceptions were too optimistic and you need to adjust to have more pessimistic predictions.

Literally everything you said in the last post is wrong. I'm actually laughing out loud at the 100% strike rate.

You thought days ago it would turn up all over the entire Middle East in just a few days (rather than weeks)? That it would be in every region of Italy (rather than just clusters in the North) and Rome would be a ghost town for tourists as 90% of bookings get canceled? That it would have spread to nearly every European country? On what evidence did you base this view? Nothing suggested it would be as bad as it is now as quickly as it's happened (the pandemic was assured, but not the speed). You'd have assume total incompetence in Italy's health system, not a reasonable assumption.

Yes
No
No
Yes

Middle East was super obvious.
Every region in Italy ? In all 20? Of course not.
On most European countries , or course. Europe has plenty of traffic.

Japan (pop 126M) closing all schools until April. Prob smart move to prevent infection from family to family, even if children themselves are at low risk of severe symptoms. Olympics/IOC optics a big factor too. Financial impact for companies - they are being asked to give leave to employees with children. Daycare centers might stay open though.

Iyam this is much worse than one or two cases in Estonia, Denmark , Greece and so on.

Short term you can play it, but in the long term, the fact that the company is working on this vaccine is actually a really bad thing.

And if you don't know why, bio tech investing may not be your thing.

We're probably 2yrs away from a vaccine that's broadly administered.

What are likely timelines for discovery, approval, production, and administering?

I don't know much about this and want to know more.

It took a year for them to get a SARS vaccine, which was obsolete by the time it was ready for market.

2 yrs is a super fast tracked schedule if it's treated as top priority and everything works out. Typical schedules are much much longer. Like 5 or 8x.

I have seen "and the band played on", when its a disease affecting a group the general public doesn't care about, aids and homosexuals and in this case the Chinese, the CDC will have no budget and be working with old, dirty equipment. France is going to find the vaccine.

I don't think the Chinese numbers are particularly reliable. Consider some of these articles:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/19...rantine-hubei/

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00434-5

There could be a large increase in infections throughout China and we wouldn't know about them because lots of them won't be tested due to lack of connections to Hubei and even those that test positive won't often be recorded. It seems also unlikely given the incentives that they'd test people that died after exhibiting covid-19 symptoms - so if you were never tested while alive, you probably don't count as a covid-19 death. And this is before you take into account the possibility of straight-up lying and misrecording which I wouldn't put past local officials. So even if the epidemic continued to worsen dramatically, these factors could very well create an appearance of successful containment.

The whole world is gonna care at some point. Especially since there's a seed everywhere now.

I read this entire thread, and I'm really impressed by how intelligent the discussion has been, even among those who disagreed with each other. This was more informative than a news site would usually be on the issue.

The market is now down around 10% from highs, and many here predicted the crash. Your logic may have actually swayed people to shorting the markets. After reading this thread, I can see that a worldwide recession is highly possible, and particularly likely if Covid-19 becomes a worldwide catastrophe.

You can apparently still book a flight from South Korea to Los Angeles. As far as I understand, planes don't fly empty. So if it's flying to LA there are people from South Korea on it. It's possible that developed countries such as the USA are now becoming infected, but that testing is so low that it remains undetected. I imagine there could be a lot of people with severe symptoms right now but hospitals and doctors are labeling it as the flu or something else. International travel to the USA should likely be completely shut down. But of course that probably won't happen until it's too late as it would crush the precious economy.



The fatality percentage may be underestimated by WHO. We currently have 39,439 closed cases. 36,581 people have recovered and been discharged while 2868 people or 7% have died. That is a 7% death rate and there are still 43,940 active cases, many of whom will also die. The death rate of this virus might be astronomical, especially if hospitals push past capacity.

With 83,379 total cases at this point, it's possible that 800,000 cases are currently unreported. It could even be 8,000,000 at this point. This is especially the case if many people have it without any major symptoms but are still contagious. The world is testing such a small % of the population that the infection rate could be much more staggering, especially in the weeks to come. Without a widespread testing system, the virus could spread to so many people but there becomes no way to accurately assess how many people have it, as there is simply no way to test the masses for it.

Are coroners testing for Coronavirus worldwide? And can anyone compare the current mortality rate to previous years? If people start dying in a much larger number than would be considered normal, that needs to be monitored. Because there's almost no way we can rely on testing alone at this point, unless a test magically rolls out globally very soon.

Many here may be young, but reports show there may be permanent damage done by the virus. The virus may permanently damage your ability to breathe properly.

If we have a worldwide pandemic, people stay in their homes. This means businesses don't make as much money. Which means layoffs. Which means people can't spend as much. Which means worldwide recession.

The best case scenario is that it's seasonal and the summer slows it down, or that it stops spreading for some reason, or people begin building immunities to it, or medicine/vaccinations come out very soon.

It's now incredibly difficult to broadly test the asymptomatic public for this virus. So the world now should be counting how many people are reporting pneumonia like symptoms and comparing those with normal figures to determine an accurate estimate of critical Coronavirus outbreaks. I wouldn't at all be surprised if "flu" and "pneumonia" cases have skyrockted globally but it hasn't even been recorded or reported, and no one knows it. It's possible that cities in Europe and America are seeing an influx of patients with these symptoms but are being falsely classified as having a common cold or flu. So these cases need to be reported and someone needs to compile what normal figures usually look like.

I wish you all good health and good luck, and hopefully this thing doesn't turn for the worse.

50 countries have travel banned South Korea, it is currently 3/4 on the State Department travel advisory warning system, I consider it likely this will be 4/4 within a week (4 = do not travel). It is already the maximum 3/3 on the CDC travel advisory list (ie. do not travel) along with China and Venezuela. Korea Air is now testing all passengers body temp on flights to the US and preventing travel if > 99.5F/37.5C (incubation period tho...).

Sounds like 36% of tests thus far have been positive. I assume the rate will decline as they test the remaining church members because people with symptoms have been prioritized for testing, but even if you cut the rate to 1/3 of that level over the remainder, it is a ridiculous number. Hope the source is wrong or I am misinterpreting.

Fair enough . Just please don’t use the negative part of the Chinese data and ignore the positive one. We use either all the chinese data or we use none of it.

These numbers are consistent with the Korea Herald figures, but I do not know precisely what the headings mean (google translated from Korean).

Source: Korean Government NCOV website

If we want to compare the effects of the outbreak on countries with a strong response (China, Japan) vs a weak one, we only have to look to Iran as an example for the latter. They have no plans to do any large scale quarantining and pilgrimages to the city of Qom are continuing unabated. The virus will only exacerbate all the geopolitical tensions in that region and could contribute to additional instability in Iran.