Yea, we should have just lay down for small pox.

**** you nature, that is our nature.

Regarding lockdown I'm pretty sure countries in Europe choose lockdown because there isn't another realistic short-term option. The alternative at this point is letting the medical system collapse, which is equal to political suicide. I think noone really knows what's going to happen in 2-3 months, they're mainly hoping for some sort of mid-term relief (vaccine, summer, etc).

Also curious about how the process of developing vaccines works and whether it's more or less guaranteed we'll get at some point.

If those doctors and nurses think it's already death and despair, their in for a long ride. The U.S. is currently in the early phase of what Italy and China have gone through. Even if media is currently ignoring it.... they won't be able for too much longer.

Yes, it's exactly what nature has done since the beginning of time. Viruses are not some sort of accident among nature.

Nature gave us brains so I guess fighting viruses is natural.

I'm not familiar with the details on smallpox, but could the majority of people have it and not really even know it. And usually only really old and sick people die from it?

The case with Covid sounds like an old and sick person problem. Not a problem with the world. If say a massive % of people who have it aren't even effected by covid, we are essentially shutting the world down for the weak that will be dying soon anyway. I'm not trying to be an ass, but I think with time the world will realize we just can't operate this way.

It will be the weak and old that have to quarantine themselves if they want to live.

i've posted lots of negative stuff.

but i did read a paper on ssrn.com (university of maryland writers) saying that all major outbreaks of CV have been fairly cold and higher humidity places.

not too much in hotter climates (definitely there is some).....

anyway, i've posted lots of negative stuff. big one is potential 18 month lockdown.

thought i'd balance with some positive stuff.

also see some highly regarded people saying "buy of a lifetime" (or very close)... i don't remember anyone saying that in fall 2008

i defer to CDC, WHO etc........ but i agree on much of what you said.... i believe right now canada has ONE DEATH outside of a single nursing home in north vancouver, BC.. ONE DEATH........... also, compare/contrast to H1N1 virus.

i'm thinking in time we will go to hardcore lockdown for seniors but loosen up for everyone else.

i think any activities with lots of people close together for extended periods are toast for quite a long time. might even be a secular rethink on some of them.

but i am hopeful many people can get back to normal-ish life in a few weeks times.

this is adjunct comment to others i've made

Can anyone ELI5: If the US government gives a trillion dollars or whatever to people and small businesses, where exactly does that capital come from?

Wtf is wrong with you? You should be ashamed of yourself.


You know what men do? Real men... they protect the weak and the vulnerable. You are a sorry excuse for a man and a sad excuse for a human being to even say what you said.

They sell government bonds (mostly to US buyers). Bonds are a document where the government promises to give the holder $X + some% amount of extra money on top in Y years if the buyer gives them their own $X now. The bonds are made up out of thin air I believe.

It can be more complex than that but that's the basic idea.

They just print it.

What if there isn't enough buyers to fill a trillion dollar order?

The Fed buys.

It's also interesting, but not surprising that all the Gattaca people have a very poor understanding of pretty much everything.

https://www.fiphysician.com/after-social-distancing/

Interesting article and a bit more optimistic about the future.

"Above, you can see from an interesting paper that there are two different strains of Covid-19 that have been isolated. One strain, the L type in blue, is more virulent. During the epidemic in China, the virulent L type was more commonly isolated in Wuhan that outside of Wuhan, and was more commonly isolated early in the outbreak more so than late in the outbreak.

What is fascinating, is that the S type is considered phylogenetically to be the ‘older’ strain. Thus consider this picture: somewhere in China the S type is circulating. Maybe it is exported to other parts of the world, but it is less virulent and causes less symptoms. Because it causes less symptoms, it is less contagious and less likely to cause an outbreak of deaths that is noticed by doctors or public health officials.

Then, a mutation and the L type is created from the S type. This happens in Wuhan, leading to the localized epidemic of this more virulent strain. Initially, testing is focused in Wuhan where the L type outbreak is happening, so that is what is seen. Later on, in Wuhan and other parts of China, you start testing less ill individuals and you start finding the more mild S type.

This is an interesting story. It shows we are more likely to detect the virulent strain and less likely to detect the less virulent strain. This less virulent strain increases in circulation and predominates in a world where we can no longer seek and destroy."

onemoretimes:

I'm not sure if your "diagnosis" of the long term health effects of COVID-19 is entirely accurate. While it does appear true that children and teenagers have immunity to the Coronavirus, (and the elderly and the old are particularly vulnerable), adults in the 20-60 age range - who contract the virus - may suffer permanent lung damage. (This is according to comments from a doctor or an epidemiologist I listened to last night on one of the cable channels.)

So, if these reports are correct, (even if you consider yourself a "healthy" adult with little to worry about), your optimism may not be grounded in reality. If you're in your 30's and 40's and you contract the virus, you'll be sick as hell - at a minimum - and [possibly] suffer permanent adverse health effects for life. Contracting this virus is not a good thing.

Don't think the USA is going to have an easy go compared to China due to the lack of compliance.

I think the USA ends up being the #1 in positive cases by a giant margin when it's all said and done. Maybe more than the next 3-4 countries combined.

Well it's the truth. Your going to live in a cave for the rest of your life because if you go out it's possible you'll infect someone else who should have been living in a cave themselves? Isn't that kind of inhumane of them to require you to do that?

I know if I was old, I'd do the right thing and stay in if I wanted to survive. Not tell everyone else to do so.

I don't believe this to be true. I think there are large numbers of people in that age range who have it that won't even know they ever had it or have very mild symptoms. We won't know until everyone starts testing themselves even when they feel fine. My buddies brother tested positive for it and he's 48 and he felt a little sick for a few days and then was fine. That's the only case I know personally of.

You'll have a much larger sample in a few days...

50% of cases in France and Belgium are under 60, and they have a tiny percentage of their population infected. Italy in some regions have stopped treating over 60s because their hospitals are overwhelmed, they can only save some people and the younger ones with a better chance of living get the oxygen and respirators.

This isn't an old person's disease. It kills a lot more of them, sure, but it hospitalizes and kills more than enough younger people as well that it would be devastating if it runs through the entire population.

The same place all the capital comes from when someone counterfeits currency—everyone. Despite what some believe, nothing of value is created in the process. It’s basically a tax on money.