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Old 03-18-2020, 01:00 PM   #2126
spino1i
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
If you lock down hard you can go back to normal life in 4-6 weeks, sooner in less infected areas, with no death.

Won't work. Death rates are too high. Hospitalization-required rates are WAY too high, they quickly overwhelm and the death rate soars. These are the numbers assuming a 0.9% case fatality rate, from despacito's link above:



You can multiple those death rates by 5 without hospital treatment (once hospitals overflow, which happens at a tiny percentage infected).

This isn't just the old. Look at the hospitalization-required rate for 30 and 40 year olds. That overwhelms in no time.
.4% among those under 40 is bad but its not worth shutting down society over
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:01 PM   #2127
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Re: Coronavirus

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You do that and could end up injecting healthy people with something as bad or worse than the virus.
Nothing is without risks in life
diabetes!= immunosuppressed
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:06 PM   #2128
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Re: Coronavirus

Former base/precious metals trader. 15 year lurker of mid-high lhe and more recently BFI. Wish I had found it a long time ago, you guys are great.

Barring any mutations, once a person has been infected, has recovered and is no longer shedding the virus, are they safe to go about their normal business/go back to work? Any risks in that to themselves or others?
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:09 PM   #2129
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Re: Coronavirus

A friend of mine in the medical field made a good point today regarding the possible overestimation of the severity of this coronavirus. Since the sample of people we have tested/positive/dead only includes those who show symptoms or in some cases who were exposed to someone who showed symptoms, the sample proportion will be skewed towards the more severe cases, skewing population death rate estimations. Since the younger you are, the less likely you are to be affected, the 0.2% death rate for under 40s is probably high. How high is anyones guess. It's also possible that they take this into account when calculating? Maybe someone better versed in statistics can respond?

Last edited by Wittgenheiny; 03-18-2020 at 01:18 PM.
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:18 PM   #2130
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Re: Coronavirus

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If people aren't complete retards they will bypass some safety procedures and pick some of the best candidates for injection. The vaccines don't need to be completely safe. Just safer than the virus.

I have been banging this drum for days.
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:18 PM   #2131
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Re: Coronavirus

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Can never tell if you're serious, if serious is there a clip?

You've been leveled, rick.
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:25 PM   #2132
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Re: Coronavirus

The governer of Lombardy, the most heavily hit region of Italy, said today that the healthcare system is about to collapse. Death figures & critical cases continue to increase.

Lombardy has been under strict lockdown since March 8, and it's still collapsing 10 days later.

Anyone saying ITT that lockdown is probably not efficient or not necessary, is an idiot. And you will be proven to be an idiot soon enough.
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:29 PM   #2133
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by spino1i View Post
.4% among those under 40 is bad but its not worth shutting down society over
That's 120,000 dead if 25% infected.

Add to that people with various short and long-term consequences.

Add to that people dying from all other reasons. Some would overlap but can you imagine what the healthcare system would look like?

Last edited by chytry; 03-18-2020 at 01:37 PM.
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:40 PM   #2134
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Tien View Post
My friend is a teacher at a daycare and the number of kids went 40 kids down to 3 kids. They sent her home for the time being and she doesn't know if she will have a job.

Another friend of mine works at a hotel and hotel staff were just laid off en masse, she's down to 2 days, there's no more foreigners! No more bookings.

Another friend of mine is a personal trainer and gyms are closed everywhere.

A contractor I work with my development projects just had her retail projects pulled midway through construction. She has to put a lot of her workers on EI.

This is 7 days in.
This is why I think itís correct to be short the market. This is just going to get worse due to big city numbers increasing daily and people panicking. Feel bad for people that lose their jobs for this bc itís really not something that could have even remotely been predicted.

Btw govt might give 1k to everyone. Hmm idk how much that is going to help. When I lived on my own, my rent was 1k a month in a medium- to small city in the downtown area which is a higher price than suburbs etc. I donít think 1k is going far to people that may have lost serving, hotel, travel industry positions. Iím currently short the market and feel bad that Iím kinda rooting for this to get worse to recoup some of the insane money I had earmarked for a home purchase etc but will prolly look to get out of stocks shortly (401k will stay in but personal acct will go 100% cash). I think nyc is going to be on full lockdown within 24-72 hrs which will really lol crush the market. Only thing I can say positive is that once this is over, a lot of value can be had in the market.

Square (SQ) was killing prior to this hiccup at 80/share. Currently at 35 a share. I wouldnít touch the stock now with a 10 foot pole however when this clears, I think this could be a huge bagger if time horizon is 5-10 years. Easily think this company could produce a 200-500 dollar share price down the road. Now, they deal heavily with small business so Iíll wait for he stock to really get hammered and find a better entry point.
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:48 PM   #2135
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Re: Coronavirus

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Old 03-18-2020, 01:50 PM   #2136
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by lonely_but_rich View Post
Warehouse I'm delivering to ran out of storage space for chicken and eggs. Lot of drivers waiting for space to open up. One driver has been here since Monday. Guards at check-in are frazzled. Took my potatoes and I'm antsy to get out of the city.
Mind mentioning what region this is? Thx
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:54 PM   #2137
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Re: Coronavirus

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If you grew up in the Soviet Union, like "yeah but where's the 5 feet of snow?"
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:54 PM   #2138
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Re: Coronavirus

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This canít be real life.
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:55 PM   #2139
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Re: Coronavirus

UK death curve putting in work.
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:57 PM   #2140
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by ddmullet02 View Post
Former base/precious metals trader. 15 year lurker of mid-high lhe and more recently BFI. Wish I had found it a long time ago, you guys are great.

Barring any mutations, once a person has been infected, has recovered and is no longer shedding the virus, are they safe to go about their normal business/go back to work? Any risks in that to themselves or others?
There was some evidence that you don't get strong immunity for this thing and can catch it multiple times. I remember reading someone got it 3 times already in Asia? (this was from a few days ago, need newer sources)
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:59 PM   #2141
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by DWarrior View Post
Mind mentioning what region this is? Thx
Denver. Got a little more information. They mostly service restaurants here so the backup makes sense.
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Old 03-18-2020, 01:59 PM   #2142
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by DWarrior View Post
If you grew up in the Soviet Union, like "yeah but where's the 5 feet of snow?"
yes, but we didn't need a trolley for one bread and 200 grams of lard.

Instead of eating less, they are gonna get even fatter and their immune system weaker.
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Old 03-18-2020, 02:00 PM   #2143
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
Can never tell if you're serious, if serious is there a clip?
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Old 03-18-2020, 02:20 PM   #2144
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Re: Coronavirus

Where are they getting those shopping carts that far away from the store? Did employees bring them all out there?
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Old 03-18-2020, 02:26 PM   #2145
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by juan valdez View Post



This is confirmation that NPCs are actually real and we exist in a simulation.
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Old 03-18-2020, 02:40 PM   #2146
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Re: Coronavirus

Lol, not one hustler out there selling corona 2020 shirts, looseys, firecrackers, nothing. Where is that, nebraska?
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Old 03-18-2020, 02:43 PM   #2147
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Re: Coronavirus

t-shirt with Busta rhymes saying Wuhan got you all in check
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Old 03-18-2020, 03:23 PM   #2148
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Re: Coronavirus

https://m.medicalxpress.com/news/202...GFZVaFKLAZiBWY

The New England Journal of Medicine. The scientists found that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel.


Anyone see anything conclusive otherwise?

24 hours on cardboard is good to know. Will give us options on parcels and such. Rest is sort of what I expected, maybe even lower.
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Old 03-18-2020, 03:42 PM   #2149
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Re: Coronavirus

Thoughts on how the government spending and intervention is going to affect inflation in the short term and long term?
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Old 03-18-2020, 03:47 PM   #2150
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki View Post
https://m.medicalxpress.com/news/202...GFZVaFKLAZiBWY

The New England Journal of Medicine. The scientists found that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel.


Anyone see anything conclusive otherwise?

24 hours on cardboard is good to know. Will give us options on parcels and such. Rest is sort of what I expected, maybe even lower.
Those times dont seem insanely long to you?
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