I saw a stat yesterday that flu was.02 per cent, i think.

The only bad news is that we don’t know how Italy is going to handle the issue without the draconian tactics from the chinese. The jury is still out there.

Italy is an incompetent and fractured country. Their army response was pretty good in those villages but it's everywhere.

H1N1 was 0.02%. It depends on the season too, some strains are more virulent, but <0.1% generally.

What constitutes reasonable containment? Isn't China quarantining entire cities, shutting down industry, and locking people in their apartments for weeks/months at a time?

yah a lot of work and disruption. but doubt its as tough a job as china faced. they were playing catch up on a outbreak that was raging for a quite while, and they are densely populated, little was known, no chance to prepare for it.

Italy data is important. The South Koreans are doing a very rigorous job with aggressive testing. They a stand a much better chance than the Italians.
But on the other hand Italy isn’t Iran either so I think that is the country you want to pay attention to see how this thing will develop if **** hits the fan.

If we multiply deaths by 3 then we have like 7500 deaths on Hubei in a province with 60 million people. That is more than acceptable given the chaotic outbreak of the disease.
It’s a bit higher than 0,01%.

The thing is are countries willing to go the lockdown route ?
Can China afford another lockdown if the virus strikes again ?

Korean testing is the first time we have testing that blankets a population and not testing focused on severe cases and cases in very confined quarters.

It will give us data necessary to finally start extrapolating the diagnosed/infected ratio... which will bring us closer to getting a real death rate per infection.

Most people that modeled this have been assuming number of total infected is a many times bigger number than the number of diagnosed that’s being reported.

SK testing is targeting 200,000 members of a church because a large # of them are infected, likely due to missions to Wuhan and the "confined quarters" at their weekly congregation. The church has stupid practices and edicts, which are not representative of the South Korean population (which is top 5 for average IQ in the world). If it is not representative of SK, then where is it a good proxy for? Maybe some countries, but not really the ones you meant.

So basically, the opposite of what you said.

I think the situation is already several orders of magnitude worse than people think it is. If you think about from the perspective of who's being tested vs who's at risk, the cult church in South Korea and the Diamond Princess simply happened to be two situations where it was extremely easy to identify at-risk individuals and in both situations, the infection rate turned out to be extremely high. Given the extremely high infection rates in these clusters, it's quite likely that lots of small outbreaks all over the world are simply going on undetected, as it's substantially harder to trace and there simply isn't enough testing capacity even in the developed world. Last I checked, only about 400 people in the US had ever been tested. I know someone whose close one passed away from pneumonia recently without ever being tested. There could easily be thousands of cases in the US already, we just don't have the ability to know yet.

And this is just from the expected failures in reasonably well-functional systems with most people acting in good faith. It's hard to believe anything coming out of China given that at every level, from individuals to families to organizations to local governments, entities have extremely strong incentives to lie in order to avoid being cut off entirely.

One possible reason why it is so infectious.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...scientists-say

The CDC is deliberately underreporting the data and permanantly damaging their credibility. This is insane.

https://twitter.com/phylogenomics/st...71330602577920

"Patient had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of a suspected viral condition... since the patient did not fit existing existing CDC criteria for Covid 19, a test was not administered. UC Davis does not control the testing process."

At the risk of sounding like a crackpot conspiracy theorist, I'm not buying the party line for why testing must all go through the CDC lab. They're trying to deliberate obfuscate and minimize this thing to avoid a public panic. But by losing their credibility, they're going to make the ultimate panic way worse.

CDC has had 6 weeks to prepare and can't do more than 350 - 500 tests a day for Coronavirus in a country of 330 million. They can't possibly be that incompetent, can they?

https://twitter.com/davidalim/status...01480073240577

It is still significantly better than testing people already known to be sick (Wuhan/Hubei especially) and testing people confined on a cruise ship.

The SK data won’t be perfect but, if successfully collected, will be the best dataset we have so far.

It’s not really CDC’s fault. The problem is mostly the FDA doesn’t have any mechanism in place to approve new tests as quickly as this crisis demands.

More fake grizy news.

tl;dr FDA granted emergency authorization on Feb 4 2020 for CDC to rapidly develop a diagnostic test, which it did. The test is defective (reagent problem). No comment on whose fault this is.

The cruise ship will be by far the best dataset for determining CFR

Gosh, that MRNA was such a weak buy. Up 17% yesterday. Up 19% today.

What on Earth was I thinking?

The median age of someone on a cruise is over 60 and people who choose to go on cruises tend to be... sedentary.

The CDC undoubtedly screwed up their kits. That’s their fault. But I find it understandable given the amount of time they’ve had so far. In a different regulatory scheme, state governments and the labs themselves would have been allowed to develop their own kits and test them in parallel.

Limit down halt not long after this post (now -12%). I put a mega short on to punish you for this post. You're welcome.



This, friend, is why you don't buy $TURD. Even if it goes up you might get slammed before you can get out so your EV overall is just terrible. That is BagholderQuotes worthy.

the really scary thing will be if the virus starts to spread in a country with strong civil rights legislation/culture (not sure if italy qualifies. i do think italians have respect for authority and value community, so it might be ok)

basically, here in canada, we've had articles in newspaper about how chinese government is trampling on civil rights not allowing people to leave wuhan. also, people been held against their will on cruise ships.......... seemed ridiculous to me.

but if it comes big to canada or the USA, you have the anti-vaccine crowd, the trump "it's not a big deal" crowd in addition to millions of "i don't want the government interfering in my life" (which i understand but not in this case)

CDC is testing maybe 10-20 people per day. They'll soon work out the bureaucratic problems preventing tests from being done more widely. When they do? I expect they'll find cases in dozens of different cities.

Diamond princess data is important if you adjust for age.

In the Chinese study only 12% of the counted cases were from people above 70. In Diamond Princess that has to be way higher.

Pffffffffffffffftttttttt.... Pelosiclap.gif

I had my stop just below yesterday's close, and covered with no problem. I was in on Tuesday around the 23 level, so no skin off my back. Manage your positions, adhere to your stops, make sure the $TURD you're trading is liquid enough to get out... EZ game.

But it would figure karma bites my in the ass for bragging in response to your nitpicking