lol, what happened to no politics? At least it's regulars now I guess. At around 1pm yesterday, McConnell indicated (from leaked private talks) that they were determined to avert a shutdown. Others said the US would not default. That was sufficient to rip the markets - it was actually a very profitable trade in calls. That continued into today with more good debt ceiling news.

Debt ceilings rarely matter and it's not because of the Merck drug that cuts covid deaths 50% (although that's made a nice mess of MRNA); I view it as a lot of buy energy and sidelined money left and this being the perfect excuse to buy the dip. It's all temporary in my view; taper and bonds are going to get things out of control and lead to a choppy correction as we come into the end of year; things will also get worse with delta in many supply chain countries which are low vacced.

Ya but the shutdown is imminent because of the debt ceiling no? If they don't get a license from Congress to print more money, then they will default. Could be wrong here but that's my understanding of it.

I'm generally anti-China in terms of securities but picked up some BABA shares recently. If their books are even 50% what is publicly reported, it's a fire sale.

No, the comments yesterday basically said this won't happen. And it was temporarily averted. There is no will to default and very strong bipartisan will to avoid it and that became completely clear yesterday with leaks and then today's public statements. That was the basis of the rip starting at 1pm yesterday. There's good money keeping your finger on the pulse of this stuff.

Well ya of course. I don't think they've ever not raised the debt ceiling. A default would be a disaster.

A default would indeed be a disaster; unfortunately, it's an inevitable one.

Can the US keep increasing its debt and continue to print more and more money forever?

I honestly don't see why not. They have the strongest, most innovative economy in the world, and just about everyone has faith in it. They also have the strongest military in the world, and can force majeure small countries that don't have faith in them to become their allies.

It's less to do about the quantity of money and more to do with their overall relative position in the world.

Until a coherent bloc of anti-American countries comes together to realistically oppose them, they can print as much money as they want for the foreseeable future.

My personal opinion is that the government should be a better steward of its finances, but my opinion doesn't account for much.

Us will print until inflation gets high enough to eat debts until it reaches a decent
% debt to GDP ratio .

Makes no sense to default when you have the printing press of the global reserve currency.

There are several lies in your post that I would like to respond to if I have the permission of the moderator to do so.

If I do not have permission to respond to your lies, I would respectfully ask the moderator to delete your above post (which you posted after the moderator said to not post in such a manner.)

In the meantime, maybe you can earn some extra money mowing lawns or something so that you can afford a keyboard that has a functioning Shift key.

Have a nice day!

+1

Thanks for the response.

Makes sense. Thanks for the response.

US is fine until it loses it's top spot. It can happen far faster than people think - the British Empire was at it's height in about 1910. Totally bust within a generation or so.

China will take number 1 in a decade or so economically.

People world wide still don't trust China because of the dictatorship they run.

America can't simply do what New Zealand is doing or Australia. Too many ports. Too many borders. Too much freedom of travel. Too large a country. Too many humans over a vast landscape. And they also value their freedoms much more.

And western countries don't have covid zero. Canada is probably the best western country in terms of Covid outcomes, but many western european countries even with high vaccination rates can't stamp it out.

Covid ain't going anywhere.

Thaaat's a lie. You've argued several times that Trump saved the USA from a worse covid outcome. You've said all along that it's a Trump miracle the US has so few deaths, own it!

Don't want to derail but seeing Tooth lie about his politarding in the thread and go unchallenged is pretty lol

+1

You're missing a joke (responding to the politics forums screeds). And in your top quote you literally dishonestly left off the second part of that quote where I qualify it with the positives that could be done. But I guess when you've claimed you have 3 early 20s friends in comas with covid and kept that up when everyone called you out for lying, deliberately dishonestly misquoting someone is nothing. Grow up.

Another politics forum poster with no attachment to BFI continuing the nonsense. Notice a pattern?

So was it a Trump miracle the USA had so few deaths or was there nothing leaders could do? You like to argue both narratives out of each side of your mouth when it suits you but they are in direct contradiction with each other.

If you want to maintain that the USA experienced a Trump miracle because we only lost ~700,000 people then you shouldn't immediately dismiss arguments about what leaders could have/can do to prevent excess deaths from covid with: "Leaders are irrelevant."

There was nothing leaders could do to stop most of the deaths in the first year. That's been my position the entire time. It was a joke, sir. This is the problem with quoting things dishonestly and out of the flow of context, and being a troll rather than genuinely discussing useful things. It's why the politics forum guys don't belong here, because that's their modus operandi. This thread was fantastically informatively and analytical before they arrived. Then politics guys arrive to wail on Trump and troll and it devolves into, shockingly, politics.

How many would have been "saved" with better leadership?

Not many? I literally watched this play out all over Europe as I traveled - countries that crushed it first wave (because of luck and early action) become the worst in the world with the late 2020 wave because they had no immunity (aka natural vaccinations/burn through). And these are in countries that are small and controllable and seeded late and where populations don't travel much. It's all nonsense, blaming leaders. None of the early action and "great leadership" in any of these countries from wave 1 bought anything in wave 2, it just came back far worse in winter for greater cumulative whole-pandemic death in the end. The original SAGE (UK scientific advisory group) advice/prediction graph came true - if you don't have some die early, they just die the following winter, and with a worse wave.

Seeing the early self-congratulations and mask religion/belief turn to horror in late 2020 across Eastern Europe as they realized masks in which the experts created great faith didn't work at all and more ended up dying overall showed that leadership is mostly irrelevant; the cuck expert and bureaucratic class drove the response and were the reason this pandemic was allowed to even spread in the first place; leaders were irrelevant.

Do you really think it helps your case if I include the part of your post where you call other people freaks? Alright then, here's the whole post, in context. You were replying to this post:



Which part is the joke, the whole thing? Because it sounds more like you are making a serious argument in response to OAFK, but if it was all just a joke then I'm happy to accept that. Maybe try making your jokes more obvious? Usually it helps if they're funny.

You do seem to have a strange pattern of contradicting yourself and then claiming that one of your views was actually just a joke and we're the idiots for not seeing the humor

That's something that's easy to say and basically a cliche' at this point, but I don't think very accurate. Just a couple days ago Lindsey Graham (sort of the avatar of doing what is needed to get elected) got shouted down at a rally for giving maybe the most benign/obvious advice possible: People his age should consider getting vaxxed. That even Graham is having a tough time navigating this heavily white, rural non college educated base is a testament to how crazy they have become. Much of this is structural. Voters in primaries tend to be older, more religious, more likely to be married with kids etc than general election voters. That effectively moderates the Democratic Party and makes the Republican party more insane. After losing in GA/AZ for the first time in a while, Republicans probably won't be able to nominate a 2012 era mainstream republican who would easily win in 2022, which will probably be at least an R+3 year because of crazy primary voters. That isn't really happening with Democrats.

Health Canada projects now that covid will be a bad cold by Spring. Personally I'll try and tough out and skip shot 3 (although no talk of it happening here) and hopefully this is all behind us and a bad dream we dig out from financially.

Oh look another wonderful politics clown has made their glorious return after a totally random hiatus. IIRC we left things off with this guy being a smug douche with the common sense of a blow up doll. You're welcome to go on another vacation boygenius, we good for now.

Leave the actual science to smart people. You're a worker bee. Follow instructions and complete your tasks. We don't need your thoughts or analysis thanks. Your track record speaks for itself. We certainly don't need your politics either

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...ostcount=13720


good trade
Weird its almost like posts and reports from credible sources were being deleted, suspended, and suppressed. Then of course those people were relentlessly mocked. If you didn't have the common sense of a blow up doll you might realize determining the origin of the virus is important. Maybe find a quiet place, take a few rips from your asthma puffer, and reflect on what an obnoxious clown you are

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...ostcount=13725

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...ostcount=13750

Some good news

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...zheU4VXcqJ0GBw

Sweden, Denmark pause Moderna COVID-19 vaccine for younger age groups

https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...M8CgpBoYK0dgEw

I never said the origin of the virus wasn't important. I just said I don't really care about the opinions of people who aren't familiar with the literature or what clowns on BFI/Facebook etc say about it.

If you find yourself getting "censored" by Facebook for Corona posts and you've unfamiliar with Nature correspondence until somebody showed it to you, you're likely just an idiot. Sorry... I know how much of your politics/personality is shaped on people not taking you seriously but it's a free country and nobody has to value your opinion or give you a platform.

Wait you still believe the Nature correspondence on natural/not lab origins? Wow, just absolutely wow. The mainstream has literally distanced itself from it - it was done by the guy doing the gain of function research that released covid - and a similar paper in The Lancet was retracted. lololol.

For a background, read and learn: https://science.thewire.in/the-scien...ple-or-nature/