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Old 07-21-2021, 05:03 PM   #16726
Dream Crusher
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Re: Coronavirus

I've heard anecdotes about younger people dying from this Delta variant but I would like to see the data. Is there any data (or information) showing recent deaths by age group?
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Old 07-21-2021, 05:11 PM   #16727
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by jalexand42 View Post
Even if your assertion based on this one data set is true and the vaccinations provide zero protection against infection (which I highly doubt), who cares?

Do you deny that the vaccination provides huge protection against serious sickness / hospitalization / death over non-vaccinated? That's ultimately what really matters.
He does and then he doesn't.
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Old 07-21-2021, 05:22 PM   #16728
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Twice. View Post
I think datasets such as these are very useful, published by Public Health Scotland: https://publichealthscotland.scot/me...ion_report.pdf. Using the numbers here published that looks at the reported cased and acute hospital admissions of vaccinated vs unvaccinated, we get the following vaccine efficacies (if my math is correct):



I think the notable point here is that the efficacy to prevent hospitalizations (which is the real important metric here imo) is nowhere near the widely advertised >90%. The on average 60% efficacy is, however, of course still useful and so saying that vaccines don't work at all is incorrect (this could change in the future).

A potential point of concern is that the trend of vaccine efficacy measured in number of cases is declining; this might reflect the quick spread under the young population initially (low vaccination rates, so this will artificially inflate efficacy) continuing into spread among the older population. In the same way, the efficacy for acute hospital admissions might be inflated as it is expected that it will be mostly the old and weak (with high vaccination rates) that need hospital admission. Unfortunately this dataset does not break down the the vaccinated/unvaccinated by age category.
Public Health Scotland updated their numbers with the latest week, which is completely in line with the previous weeks:



Last week numbers seem to confirm the declining trend in efficacy against infection and show again quite mediocre (~60% instead of >90% advertised) efficacy against serious disease / hospitalization
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Old 07-21-2021, 05:42 PM   #16729
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by TheJacob View Post
Somebody posted this in the OOT thread and it's the first information I've seen on infectiousness of vaccinated individuals:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....13.21260393v1
Thanks.

Some other interesting stuff from fulltext:

Quote:
However, the vaccination status of infected household contacts was not significantly associated with the hazard of infection amongst fully vaccinated individuals
Quote:
The full dataset, covering the period from June 15, 2020 to March 24, 2021, included information on 2,305,704 individuals from 1,275,015 households. Among these, 1,276,311 individuals received two doses of BNT162b2 as of March 24, 2021. There were 191,138 detected infections caused by SARS-CoV-2 (8.3% of the total population), with 4,141 infections following the second dose of the vaccine and 73,582 infections in unvaccinated individuals (nave risk ratio = 5.6%).
Although I'm not sure how much Delta this is capturing?

-----------------

Was looking through some of the paper's citations.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...514-4/fulltext

Quote:
The secondary attack rate for SARS-CoV-2 has been estimated to be approximately twice as high as that of SARS-CoV,5, 6 and comparable to that of influenza,7 although the estimated daily probability of transmission was similar to SARS-CoV. The key difference between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV is that the probability of transmission is substantially higher during the presymptomatic incubation period for SARS-CoV-2,1, 8 whereas little to no transmission occurred before symptom onset for SARS-CoV.6 Thus, SARS-CoV was much easier to control through case isolation and quarantine of contacts.9 Jing and colleagues estimate that prompt case isolation only prevented 20–50% of secondary cases of COVID-19 in Guangzhou.1
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15030689/
What was Sars-Cov?
Quote:
A case-control analysis identified risk factors for secondary infection. Secondary infection occurred in 14.9% (22.1% versus 11% in earlier and later phases) of all households and 8% (11.7% versus 5.9% in the earlier and later phases) of all household members.
Remember this study?
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2774102
Quote:
Results A total of 54 relevant studies with 77 758 participants reporting household secondary transmission were identified. Estimated household secondary attack rate was 16.6% (95% CI, 14.0%-19.3%), higher than secondary attack rates for SARS-CoV (7.5%; 95% CI, 4.8%-10.7%) and MERS-CoV (4.7%; 95% CI, 0.9%-10.7%). Household secondary attack rates were increased from symptomatic index cases (18.0%; 95% CI, 14.2%-22.1%) than from asymptomatic index cases (0.7%; 95% CI, 0%-4.9%)
Even the 18% just always blew me away at how low it was.

Sorry for the rabbit holding... but bring this back home, the paper says:
Vaccine effectiveness against susceptibility to infection was 80-88%
So if our baseline was 18% (again note this was for alpha!), this brings it to~3%?
In that case where are so many vaccinated people catching this thing???
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Old 07-21-2021, 05:50 PM   #16730
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Twice. View Post
Last week numbers seem to confirm the declining trend in efficacy against infection and show again quite mediocre (~60% instead of >90% advertised) efficacy against serious disease / hospitalization
Havn't ploughed through the numbers you posted but did you see the posts showing that if 95% receive a 90% effective vaccine then ~2/3rds of those hospitalised will be vaccinated.
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Old 07-21-2021, 06:02 PM   #16731
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Re: Coronavirus

An interesting piece from the current New Yorker, "Coexisting with the Coronavirus":

https://www.newyorker.com/science/an...term=TNY_Daily
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Old 07-21-2021, 06:22 PM   #16732
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Twice. View Post
Public Health Scotland updated their numbers with the latest week, which is completely in line with the previous weeks:



Last week numbers seem to confirm the declining trend in efficacy against infection and show again quite mediocre (~60% instead of >90% advertised) efficacy against serious disease / hospitalization
How far is Scotland in vaccination? And what is the definition of the calculations you make?

Unless there is a major effort across the world to report fake data, protection against death seems massive. Death rates are staying low in highly vaccinated countries. I have also not seen any evidence of a healthcare system coming anywhere close to being under stress where vaccinations are high. Sure it's summer, but it's a summer with delta and much higher infection rates than last summer.

If the vaccine still means on average you're still 0,5ish% to be hospitalized (that's 1 thing I'm seeing in your data, but not sure I'm reading correctly), that kinda sucks. That is still a lot, especially for the old & weak that will be on the bad end of the average.
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Old 07-21-2021, 07:29 PM   #16733
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Re: Coronavirus

New from the New England Journal of Medicine study on the Delta variant:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

Basically, its that two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine were 88% effective in protecting against symptomatic COVID-19 from the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant.
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Old 07-21-2021, 08:12 PM   #16734
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Re: Coronavirus

That study was posted by PHE and discussed here when it was in preprint:

https://khub.net/web/phe-national/pu...ew%2F479607266

IDK, is that not the same paper?

Last edited by TheJacob; 07-21-2021 at 08:18 PM.
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Old 07-21-2021, 09:24 PM   #16735
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by TheJacob View Post
That study was posted by PHE and discussed here when it was in preprint:

https://khub.net/web/phe-national/pu...ew%2F479607266

IDK, is that not the same paper?
Not sure, the article was posted today though.
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Old 07-21-2021, 11:11 PM   #16736
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by jalexand42 View Post
Even if your assertion based on this one data set is true and the vaccinations provide zero protection against infection (which I highly doubt), who cares?



Do you deny that the vaccination provides huge protection against serious sickness / hospitalization / death over non-vaccinated? That's ultimately what really matters.
For whatever reason Shuffle has been assuming the Covid vaccines could not work since before the first trial data was even released. He evidently will not budge from that position no matter how much data there is to the contrary.

Note that he has recently been taking victory laps here, as if his early posts mocking Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have somehow been proven correct. Of course since the vaccines obviously work, the truth is that he was not correct, in fact he was the opposite of correct. So since he can no longer argue the vaccines don't work, he has shifted the goalposts to stating that he was correct all along because of some yet-to-be-discovered side effects that will start killing the vaccinated any day/month/year now.

Regarding the infection vs. hospitalization/death, it is obvious to anyone not playing semantic games that if the vaccines prevent serious illness and death, they are effective. It is true that Delta seems to be able to infect vaccinated people more easily than earlier strains. So what? That does not matter to the infected person with no symptoms, who would have otherwise been on a ventilator without the vaccine. So yes the vaccines work, yes they are safe, all the legit data shows this... but for some reason Shuffle refuses to accept this.
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Old 07-21-2021, 11:37 PM   #16737
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Re: Coronavirus

the cool thing right now in the truther groups is talking about how in 3ish year all the vaccinated will die. since they were wrong about the vaccines being ineffective, wrong about covid being fake just in general wrong about everything and hysterical. they have learned from their failed qanon brothers and sisters to not make false prophecys with in the near future timelines. they know their cause loses steam when dates come and go and nothing comes true so they say 2-3 years the vaccine will kill everyone who gets it to give themselves time to try and remain relevant (in their minds)

Last edited by dragonrider; 07-22-2021 at 12:06 AM.
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Old 07-22-2021, 12:32 AM   #16738
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by jalexand42 View Post
Even if your assertion based on this one data set is true and the vaccinations provide zero protection against infection (which I highly doubt), who cares?
It's not one data set, I've provided multiple data sets for Israel.

The reasons you should care are numerous. For one, as Tooth stated, you can't achieve herd immunity through vaccination alone. Impossible, and not even desirable at this point because the attempt produces extreme rather than stabilizing selection pressure. Recently, this editorial in the BMJ discussed, in fact, the desire to have some low level circulation throughout the population, and the transition for COVID-19 into a childhood disease:


https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1687/rr-8


Just like the flu, except worse. Guess what the NIH and their WIV counterparts gave us with their gain-of-function research? 10-50x background respiratory disease and death for the foreseeable future, perhaps even twice a year.

That means there's no reason whatsoever to vaccinate every single human being on Earth, even healthy young adults, let alone babies and children. Like Tooth said, it's a matter of personal medical benefit for the individual. This mandatory vaccination, health pass stuff, is all divisive and perhaps even intentionally manipulative political theater. I spent the entire year last year calling out the MAGA crowd for their idiotic flu bro, Covid denying lies, and apparently I'll spend the entire year this year calling out the tribalist left-wingers for their vaccine maximalism lies. They are not founded on science or data, only the unhealthy, base urge to believe oneself good and the enemy bad. Absolute juvenile bullshit.


If your friends over in Unstuck OOT politics 2.0 want to have a safe space over there, then perhaps we can address that issue separately, but there's no reason to promote that nonsense over here in BFI.


Quote:
Originally Posted by jalexand42 View Post
Do you deny that the vaccination provides huge protection against serious sickness / hospitalization / death over non-vaccinated? That's ultimately what really matters.

What kind of vaccination are we talking about? And for which individuals? And for how long? Safe, effective, one time vaccination for life? Or something with little durability that wears off and progressively causes more harm, little by little, that a person has to keep taking every six months? Not every vaccine is the same nor should be considered the same risk/reward for each individual. There are a lot of different vaccines out there, and more in the pipeline. Novavax coming out soon, for instance.

More misinformation from the vaccine maximalist crowd. Potentially harming people. No different from the covid denying flu bros last year.

Now I will admit that most people in the world are not intelligent enough to vaccine shop on their own, so you need qualified experts. Supply limitations may be another concern. That doesn't mean port lazy bureaucrats aren't capable of total incompetence if not outright malicious political machinations.


Waning mRNA vaccine efficacy in Israel explained by their earlier vaccination timeline:







There may be a market out there for 6-month, quick-fix elixirs that are progressively harmful, offering 95% efficacy for desperate people trying to buy time, vs. 50-60% efficacy but more durable immunity found in other vaccines. Those mRNA vaccines might even be ethical for very high-risk, mostly older people, I don't know.

That doesn't mean they should be used to mass vaccinate healthy young adults, teenagers, children, babies. These people are generally not at risk for severe disease. I see revots has posted again. He's been a 3x trial jabber with worse side effects and higher chance of severe adverse reaction every time. Ask him what he thinks will happen when he goes back for his fourth jab at the end of the year?


https://www.wsj.com/articles/states-...ts-11626890613

^^^
If you don't think pharma companies are capable of drugging people to death, remember the opioid epidemic and tens of billions, if not hundreds of billions of dollars of lawsuit settlements since then.



Edit to add:

Props Twice. and TooCuriousso1 for their data contributions showing waning protection vs. hospitalization. Hopefully more of that discussion itt and less zero content posts.

Last edited by Shuffle; 07-22-2021 at 12:44 AM.
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Old 07-22-2021, 12:48 AM   #16739
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by dragonrider View Post
the cool thing right now in the truther groups is talking about how in 3ish year all the vaccinated will die. since they were wrong about the vaccines being ineffective, wrong about covid being fake just in general wrong about everything and hysterical. they have learned from their failed qanon brothers and sisters to not make false prophecys with in the near future timelines. they know their cause loses steam when dates come and go and nothing comes true so they say 2-3 years the vaccine will kill everyone who gets it to give themselves time to try and remain relevant (in their minds)
Why are you bringing this conspiracy theory bs into this thread?
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Old 07-22-2021, 12:52 AM   #16740
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
I've heard anecdotes about younger people dying from this Delta variant but I would like to see the data. Is there any data (or information) showing recent deaths by age group?

These anecdotes happen every wave. Last summer "more and more young people" were going into hospital. The data never backed this up.





Almost all deaths are in the 50+ age group.

Recently, that Eric Feigl Ding twitter doctor, who has been trying forever to scare people into vaccinating their babies and children, was promoting a fake news story about 12 children getting hospitalized in Mississippi, and 10 of them needing ventilators.


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Old 07-22-2021, 12:57 AM   #16741
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Why are you bringing this conspiracy theory bs into this thread?
everything shuffle posts is conspiracy theory bs

anti vax, flat earth, qanon, alex jones.... its all the same simple minded people, they arent mutually exclusive its the same people.
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Old 07-22-2021, 02:55 AM   #16742
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by chezlaw View Post
Havn't ploughed through the numbers you posted but did you see the posts showing that if 95% receive a 90% effective vaccine then ~2/3rds of those hospitalised will be vaccinated.
Yes, that is why I calculated the vaccine efficacy in %, in the same way as the pharma companies calculate and advertise their efficacies: efficacy = (attack rate unvaccinated - attack rate vaccinated) / attack rate unvaccinated * 100. The so-called attack rate factors in the population size: i.e. if 1 person out of 10 unvaccinated gets covid, attack rate is 0.1.
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Old 07-22-2021, 03:07 AM   #16743
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by bbfg View Post
How far is Scotland in vaccination? And what is the definition of the calculations you make?

Unless there is a major effort across the world to report fake data, protection against death seems massive. Death rates are staying low in highly vaccinated countries. I have also not seen any evidence of a healthcare system coming anywhere close to being under stress where vaccinations are high. Sure it's summer, but it's a summer with delta and much higher infection rates than last summer.

If the vaccine still means on average you're still 0,5ish% to be hospitalized (that's 1 thing I'm seeing in your data, but not sure I'm reading correctly), that kinda sucks. That is still a lot, especially for the old & weak that will be on the bad end of the average.
For the calculations, see my reply to chez. Regarding the number of vaccinations: in that last week from 10 - 16 july, Scotland had 1.185 M unvaccinated, 0.971 M one-dose and 2.742 M two-dose (+14 days). I intentionally left out the calculations for one-dose due to the fact that these numbers are harder to interpret imo.

Prevention of deaths is indeed one of the most important factors, however, the report does not give such weekly numbers unfortunately. But even if death efficacy remains very high, a combination of a big wave x "only" 60% hospital prevention efficacy will mean that hospitals will get overrun again, then extra measures/lockdowns will need to be put in place... again. So I think this is a super critical number going into the winter.
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Old 07-22-2021, 03:21 AM   #16744
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Re: Coronavirus

Ok so what is the difference between your calculated efficacy and the claimed efficacy caused by? Have you taken age into account? the unvaccinated are heavily skewed towards younger people who are far less likely to be hospitalised.

Can you do your analysis by age group?

Last edited by chezlaw; 07-22-2021 at 03:34 AM.
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Old 07-22-2021, 04:06 AM   #16745
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Re: Coronavirus

New NFL protocols are hilarious

Quote:
Originally Posted by NFL
Under the new policy, vaccinated players will no longer be required to wear masks at the team’s facility or during team travel. They will have no travel restrictions, can use the sauna/steam room and weight room without capacity limits, and can interact with vaccinated friends and family during team travel.

Unvaccinated players will be required to be tested for COVID-19 daily and must wear masks in team facilities and during travel. They will also not be allowed to use the sauna/steam rooms, are subject to weight room capacity limits, and may not leave the team hotel to eat or interact with anyone outside of the team traveling party during travel.

Unvaccinated players will be required to quarantine after high-risk exposure, while vaccinated players will not.
Logical policy for a vaccine, that even vaximalists say, does nothing to prevent transmission. At least now we have finally found a group of people that we can treat like 2nd class citizens without violating discrimination laws.
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Old 07-22-2021, 04:30 AM   #16746
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by OlafTheSnowman View Post
New NFL protocols are hilarious



Logical policy for a vaccine, that even vaximalists say, does nothing to prevent transmission. At least now we have finally found a group of people that we can treat like 2nd class citizens without violating discrimination laws.
I loved when this got released , can remain unvaxed but your existence will be literal ****. Cole Beasley went on a multiday Twitter rant saying he refuses to get vaccinated because if he going to die it's gods decision, claiming he doesn't believe 600k Americans died because he didn't see it with his own eyes, and that he was going to quit football rather then vaccinate. That was a month ago he went dead silent the next day. He said some other idiot trash like I'd rather live my life then get vaccinated totally illogical nonsense like someone having a mental break. Seems hid agent and family talked him away from the ledge
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Old 07-22-2021, 05:49 AM   #16747
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Re: Coronavirus

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Ok so what is the difference between your calculated efficacy and the claimed efficacy caused by? Have you taken age into account? the unvaccinated are heavily skewed towards younger people who are far less likely to be hospitalised.

Can you do your analysis by age group?
I wish I could, but they don't provide the data by age group unfortunately. Your last point is an interesting one, and I think I actually overlooked the significance of this. As more young, non hospital-needing people get vaccinated they move from the denominator for the unvaccinated attack rate to the the denominator of the vaccinated attack rate, leading to an increase in efficacy. So these efficacy numbers I calculated would then be lower than expected, which is good news.

However, based on that you would expect that this calculated efficacy % should show an increasing trend, but it doesn't?
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Old 07-22-2021, 08:52 AM   #16748
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post

The reasons you should care are numerous. For one, as Tooth stated, you can't achieve herd immunity through vaccination alone. Impossible, and not even desirable at this point because the attempt produces extreme rather than stabilizing selection pressure. Recently, this editorial in the BMJ discussed, in fact, the desire to have some low level circulation throughout the population, and the transition for COVID-19 into a childhood disease:


https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1687/rr-8

I've got no issue with kids and young adults not getting vaccinated. However that is a huge leap from "vaccines don't work", "vaccines are unsafe", etc. This type of misinformation is what leads those in higher-risk groups to forego the vaccine and leads directly to more hospitalizations and deaths.

Most of the people still dying today of Covid (in countries where vaccine is readily available) are older people who could have gotten vaccinated but chose not to, due to unfounded vaccine fears, belief in nonsense conspiracy theories, Covid denialism, or some combination of all 3.
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Old 07-22-2021, 09:11 AM   #16749
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by revots33 View Post
However that is a huge leap from "vaccines don't work"
These vaccines for this virus don't work to stop transmission. There is more than enough data and expert inference to draw that conclusion now. Your misinformation otherwise needs to stop. You are no different than the covid denying flu bros from last year, only now the divisive political shoe is on the other foot.


Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33 View Post
"vaccines are unsafe", etc.

I never said vaccines are unsafe. Nuanced debate about the differences between different types of vaccines has been lost on your vaccine maximalist mind because you are far over in political la la land.


Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33 View Post
This type of misinformation is what leads those in higher-risk groups to forego the vaccine and leads directly to more hospitalizations and deaths.

You have lost the forest for the trees my friend. The objective is to save as many lives as possible. You are so concerned about the few tenths of a percent of Boomer holdouts at-risk that you might harangue into compliance, that you are forgetting to protect all of those who are already vaccinated and also trying to compel people who are not at-risk into mass vaccination that is -EV for them personally, all to satiate your base urges and divisive political theater.


Quote:
Most of the people still dying today of Covid (in countries where vaccine is readily available) are older people who could have gotten vaccinated but chose not to

Most people dying today are in poor countries who have no access to anything, because your greedy little government is pouring all of its money and resources into quick-fix elixirs for its desperate, aged, medically unhealthy population. Then they buy them up and hoard them, like that absolute neoliberal flake Justin Trudeau.


https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireSt...years-77272115
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Old 07-22-2021, 10:18 AM   #16750
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
These vaccines for this virus don't work to stop transmission. There is more than enough data and expert inference to draw that conclusion now. Your misinformation otherwise needs to stop. You are no different than the covid denying flu bros from last year, only now the divisive political shoe is on the other foot.

...
I hope people see how incredibly dishonest this is of Shuffle.

He is now trying to pretend his only issue was 'transmission' and framing that as a win for him when his entire prior premise was the vaccines were a sham. Zero efficacy.

At no point has their been a claim by the expert community that vaccines would prevent transmission. it was always acknowledged that transmission may be reduced but still possible and if there is a lot of virus in the community that odds of still getting and transmitting it, even if vaccinated rose.

That is a the type of d'uh logic Derps simply cannot comprehend.

The vaccinated can act as a firebreak slowing transmission (R) as the virus has a tougher time grabbing hold but as you go deeper and deeper into Derp territory with higher percent of anti-vax Derps returning to life while creating fertile ground for the virus to spread like wild fire you will then see it spread also thru the vax'd in increasing numbers. That is not a statement to argue a variant would not grab hold and spread regardless, but to the speed and virulence which matter to the only thing that really matters, hospitalizations and death rates.

SCIENCE, wow Derps, yes that is how it works.

No one cares about Covid that spreads like the common cold each year where very few are being hospitalized or dying due to vaccines. We show with the Flu society has a strong tolerance for that.

So this pretense Shuffle is trying to create that 'Transmission' alone equals a failure of the Vax is pure gaslighting. Transmission means nothing and the Vaccine is a complete success if the result is hospitalizations and deaths and reduced to a point were society is can handle it and not have to consider shut down methods to contain it.
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