Quote:
Originally Posted by Malachii
Yeah, I think everybody realizes that
A.) There are tons of underreported / asymptomatic cases
B.) Not everyone that's infected who is ultimately going to die has died yet.
Curious what those "at least 15%" statements are based on? No offense, but that basically sounds like verbal diarrhea.
It’s a fancy way of saying I don’t have a ****ing clue of what’s going on.
The optimistic scenario is based on the chance than tighter control from countries plus warmer weather are really good news.
The pessimistic scenario is based on the Iran thing being all over the place.
I shouldn’t have said “more likely than 15%” I should have said both scenarios are plausible instead of quantifying it like I did.
Let’s not obsess over the percentages , let’s focus on the fact that the range of posible outcomes are all over the place. I think that should be a thread consensus.
Edit : What I’m trying to say is that right now the range of outcomes is all over the place, anything could happen.
By the 8th of March the range will be much less wide.
My last post was bad , it was too disorganized and sloppy.
Last edited by valenzuela; 02-25-2020 at 09:43 PM.