this polling stuff has been debunked a lot

it's just manipulation to find what you want

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytic...andom-numbers/

one of the better ones

TS i think it's a major leak of yours to only be able to identify the incompetence on one side of the aisle

imo the vast majority of us government from civil servants to elected officials are grossly incompetent and not exclusive to any party

Pollsters by definition "smash this stuff" by being accurate enough that people pay them lots of money for their work. The ones that are not very good get weeded out. Just like with sports betting.

One of the better ones? Jesus...

Uhh, you realise this article disagrees with you right? The entire premise of the article is that changes within the mathematically expected margin of error are overhyped by the media. The article is quite clear that the variations are exactly within the distribution that would be expected if the polling is being done well and the issue is with the media reporting on expected random variations within this distribution, not that the polls themselves are meaningless.

The polls in that article are actually very good evidence that when sampling is done in a consistent manner the results will almost always be within the expected margin of error that we were talking about. It makes it quite explicitly clear that you aren't going to get wildly different results by just doing the same poll with a different set of people if the sampling is done in the same way.

Nobody would deny that the media frequently misuses the results from polls but that means that it is important to look at and understand the polls themselves rather than media reporting on them; it doesn't mean that polls are meaningless.

I called him Shuffle McDoomPorn for a reason.

lvr going full tard here posting an article that debunks his garbage understanding while calling the article 'one of the better ones'.

FLOL the clownshoes just go round and round in this forum.

DC votes 93% Democrat. The entire bureaucracy is left wing. The very nature of bureaucracy is left wing - government regulation and top down control.

Bureaucracy also naturally attracts those who believe in government and shun the private sector, either because they're incompetent or because they believe in big government and causes (i.e. left wing nonsense). Then once a culture gets going, that further snowballs.

When the CDC botched the tests and then the FDA argued repeatedly that the tests shouldn't be opened up to the private sector - which is ultimately what destroyed any hope of containing it in the US - was that a "big government" and "government does best" left wing ethos or "small government" and "private sector does best" ethos?

Trump even had to fight hard with the CDC/FDA bureaucracy (the same losers who botched the tests) on vaccine approval and distribution and overrode them, bringing the military in for Operation Warp Speed (which is the sole reason the US is crushing Europe on vaccines).

So yes, the incompetence is very much on one side of the aisle and you can thank Trump for how well the US is doing, both economically and with vaccines, compared to Europe, and blame the bureaucracy that things weren't better. If the US had Trump and a Taiwanese bureaucracy, this would have gone very differently.

I hate talking politics online so I won't touch the rest of it, but TIL the military and a government run program represent small govt, private sector ethos.

Despite not supporting him, I give Trump due credit for the program, which would have been **** or non-existent without a government.

Government is a necessary evil. I'm a big fan of government for what it's good at. The trouble is that the range of what government is good at is a much smaller range than most people think, especially left wingers.

There are some very simple principles you can use to decide if something should be done by the government or private sector. Unfortunately, most left wingers are too intellectually incompetent and too motivated by left wing religion/tribalism to even get to this point where they understand this.

To take an example: Government should never have been developing the tests. They should certainly never have been blocking all others from developing tests. There are very simple reasons for this:

1. The development of a new product can fail
2. The consequences of failure of that product are catastrophic (unable to get intelligence on spread, unable to contact trace and isolate, unable to respond to the spreading epidemic)
3. There are many possible solutions for a rapid quality test; trial and error from across the range of knowhow are needed, rather than putting the entire development cycle on a few cucks in a lab too stupid/incompetent to get a private sector job

This is a no brainer "open to the private sector" if your IQ is above 3.

These are such simple concepts, but the left wing bureaucracy is so ****ed in the head that even after they botched it they continued to argue for weeks that the private sector should be forcibly stopped from making their own tests.

I agree that a lot of people who share my values should be more open to private, market based solutions.

The left needs to admit the inherent problems with bureaucracy and lack of profit incentive.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...as-god/306397/

The market is a blunt tool, a great tool to be sure, but it is not God.

Save us the trouble Tooth and just cut and paste and repeat...

'Dems bad/dirty and obstructionist. Trump was near God like in what he could do and still somehow managed to accomplish when not blocked by Dems'...

And throw in maybe a line at the bottom with a pre-emptive 'to anyone who replies and tries to refute this truth, the mod's should ban you for politarding up this non political thread, which i do my best to keep non political'.

You yourself said

So yes. If a population of 100+ million is 60% in favor of A and 40% in favor of B and you design a poll with 0 systemic bias, I would bet every penny I have that 10 out of 10 polls of 1000 will have more favoring A than B. You can show this in 5 min on Python, C or even excel.

Like I said, this is a basic theorem taught to most in high school. I know this is just a business sub on a poker forum but even here I think you should know this if you don't want to look like an idiot and talk about polling.

Not really. They're right wingers (read: libertarians) in a business, finance, and investing subforum.

2+2 is owned by right wingers

The mod in this subforum, I dunno what he is, but he certainly does not care for side shade thrown at the left politically in the midst of actual, substantive commentary about coronavirus

Knowing that should help anyone understand it's not ever going to stop and there's nothing anyone can do about it. Your choice is to read it or scroll past and ignore

They are hypocrites, but again, this is BFI, not P&S. So if all you want to talk about is the political side, then you're just tarding up the thread. That's why Cuepee keeps getting asked to leave and not ToothSayer. I have Cuepee on ignore literally because he can't stop worrying about TS, so there's no point in reading his posts in here. He's posting about him and not any particular subject other than political. I'm not interested in that, so why read it? I go to P&S for that. I literally just directly addressed itshotinvegas over there a few minutes ago in almost the same fasion Cuepee might. Only difference is I'm doing it in the correct forum...

As for lvr, he's just incapable of making intellectually honest posts. At least ToothSayer can elaborate a point and cite stuff for the most part. Lvr just makes **** up. Again, I see no point in reading posts that aren't honest and serve no purpose to me, so put him on ignore. It's not that hard. Now I don't have to worry about how he thinks I would burn my house to the ground to kill cockroaches. Which makes no sense anyway since literally any left wing nutjob homeowner wouldn't do that and I'm literally not cowering in fear about lockdowns lol

I went to party, maskless, even back when Rika was blogging about the Idaho life...It's not that deep, bro, y'all just act like it is. I just go out less frequently and try to be responsible and wear masks in spots to at a minimum show some respect for my fellow man. I'm sorry I don't feel my rights crumbling around me over a piece of fabric lol

For the record, I do think that perhaps we should be opening up quicker than we are, but we also have kind of crappy plans in the way we're doing it. Gov't officials are kind of dumb and stupidity is bi-partisan

I just wish people would understand that you can be offended by a poster and not just absolutely have to give them a piece of your mind. Doesn't really serve a purpose in this subforum for reasons mentioned at the beginning of this post. Just sayin...

I lol'd

However, he at least elaborates his takes and I appreciate that. I have a running theory that he's a JiggsCasey gimmick

"Always account for the unforeseen" is something I like to say from time to time and people like Shuffle remind me it's at least worth being cognizant rather than not

Poll reliability isn't a math problem. If it was there wouldn't have been polls 18 points out in swing states with a 3.7 margin of error. You're just misusing statistics here.

I'm of the view that most people support lockdowns and restrictions in the UK and many other Western countries and I think lvr is wrong on that. And I'm also of the view that many are lying or mistaken on these polls on how much contact they have and how well they follow the rules. The pandemic would/could not be spreading if the results of these polls for self-reported compliance were accurate. Which is a lot more powerful evidence than the lol clownmath you're trying to use to end the debate.

The last time I explained high school level math to you it went over your said so I'll just make this one point:

lvr specifically talked about the case with no systemic error. He is confused about the basic math. He, like much of the non-science public and I'm sure pure morons like you intuitively think that population size is a stronger driver for required sample size for 95% level confidence intervals in polling. If 500 people gives an accurate poll for 10k people, surely an accurate poll of 10 million people requires polling 500k people!!!!

It's pretty obvious what the conversation is about, even if you don't understand it and want to knee jerk defend lvr.

imo most people break he rules a bit and some people break them a lot. But with each lockdown in the UK, R came below 1 and the number of cases dropped quickly. Each time we ended the lockdowns we saw the reverse.

We've had various other restrictive periods with odd rules. The're messier but even then it seemed fairly clear they worked within their limitations. I gather its been much the same in Europe as well.

I'm once again furious with the FDA. They are fighting with AstraZeneca over whether AZ's vaccine is 76 per cent effective or 79 per cent effective and not issuing an EUA. WTF, 1400 people in USA#9 died yesterday and they're ****ing around worrying about marginal efficacy data when safety is not an issue. I'd burn the place down and start from scratch. Our government is blitheringly incompetent.

Grunching the obvious here, but it's hardly a surprise there is so much disinformation about the AZ vaccine when they are selling at cost.

it's almost like all the other pharma companies have a vested interest in seeing the AZ vaccine fail...

It looks like actual vaccine supply is no longer (or very soon no longer will be) a big driver of vaccination rates compared to vaccine skepticism etc.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/u...s-vaccine.html

ex cdc director confirmed "lab truther"

https://nypost.com/2021/03/26/ex-cdc...site%20buttons

Idaho is 42nd in deaths per million and come next Monday when my daughter goes back to school after spring break her school won't even be doing masks anymore.

So tell me again why doing anything other then locking up the VERY old and the rest of us getting back to life isn't the optimal strategy? Do enough of you cowards have the vaccine yet so you can stop your whining?

Idaho ftw

Now Canada pauses AZ vaccine for under 55s

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...those-under-55
See how this pause plays out.

Could be a real issue or could be the data be being sqeezed too hard. Can always find significant looking common factors in small random data sets.

There's also the now the potential problem of the illusion of a rise in occurrences of anything you measure more.